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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 319 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop late this evening and overnight.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, except around 3 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, except around 3 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft, except around 3 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to choppy.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop.

AMZ100 319 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure persists inland with troughing off the coast through Thursday. A cold front could approach the region Friday, crossing the waters Saturday. High pressure returns late weekend and next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 031819 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 219 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in control for much of the week. A strong but mostly dry cold front will cross the area Saturday, with high pressure building back in from the west late weekend and early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 220 PM Tue...Surface high pressure continues to build in from the north and west, with a weak coastal trough offshore. N to NE winds persist between these features, with sct to broken diurnal cu field developing this afternoon. Additionally there could be some minor haze as smoke from Canadian wildfires advects down the eastern seaboard. Dry conditions continue tonight, with shower activity focused well offshore. Mainly clear skies and light winds inland will make for efficient radiational cooling after sunset, with lows again in the low to mid 50s away from the beaches. Very shallow fog is possible late near moisture sources such as ponds and swamps, but minimal fog impacts expected.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
As of 220 PM Tue...Similar pattern continues for Wed with strong high pressure overhead and weak coastal troughing offshore. Should be another dry day with temps near or slightly above climo.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 4 AM Tue...Mainly dry weather continues through much of the coming week as high pressure to the north and west remains in control. A weak coastal trough could bring light rain chances Friday, and then another chance for light showers on Saturday with a strong cold frontal passage, then much cooler and drier for the latter half of the weekend into early next week.

Thursday through Friday...Weak coastal troughing will be offshore this period, though some influx of low level moisture may bring rain showers to mainly ern portions of ENC Thu into Fri. Mostly sunny skies on Thu will turn mostly cloudy by Fri, though pops only in the 20-30% range, highest ern counties.
Highs will cont above climo, in the low 80s, and lows also warm with readings well into the 60s for most.

Saturday...The next feature that will require monitoring is a cold front that will sweep through by Sat evening. Early indications are that there will be limited moisture transport ahead of the feature as low lvl flow is wrly, and not swrly out of the GOM, and therefore only low end (20%) POPs are in the forecast on Sat with this fropa.

Sunday through Monday...Significantly cooler and drier air mass invades the ern CONUS late weekend through early next week, with a strong touch of autumn expected across ENC. Strong Canadian high pres builds in and temps drop to below climo, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70s expected, and lows mainly in the 40s (50s beaches).

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 220 PM Tue...VFR conditions currently across the terminals with sct to broken cu 4-5 kft. There is a signal for another round of patchy shallow radiation fog again overnight and early Wed morning. Based on climo and persistence, PGV is the location with the greatest chances for fog impacts, though all sites could briefly see sub- VFR. Additionally, increasing MVFR strato-cu could develop through the night, but is expected to remain south and east of the terminals.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Mainly VFR through the coming week as high pressure ridges in from the north and west. A weak coastal trough will affect mainly the coastal counties with small rain chances Thu into Fri, then a strong cold front but limited moisture availability moves through on Sat.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 220 PM Tue...Latest obs show N/NE winds 10-20 kt with seas 5-8 ft. High pressure will remain in control of the waters through the period with weak coastal troughing offshore.
Gradually diminishing mid to long period swell from low pressure over the central North Atlantic and modest local wind swell will keep 5-7 ft seas in place through this evening, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft tonight, with SCAs persisting for the coastal waters. Seas should drop below 6 ft for the northern waters tonight and the southern waters early Wed morning. Will hold onto 6 ft seas for the central waters for Wed, though NBM and Wavewatch show seas subsiding below 6 ft by late Wed morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Tue..Building medium period swell brings back 6+ ft seas for all of the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet from distant trop cyclone Philippe. A strong cold front will sweep through by Sat evening with gusty NW to N winds developing in it's wake.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

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Atlantic Beach Bridge
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Tue -- 05:32 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:31 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
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Atlantic Beach Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Channel Marker Lt. %2359, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,