Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic Beach, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 200 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Another conditional risk of severe weather late

- Humid with above normal heat

Yesterday's severe thunderstorms formed on the periphery of a stout mid/upper level ridge that has been anchored over the Southeast U.S. That ridge is forecast to build a bit further north today, with an even stronger cap expected compared to yesterday. Meanwhile, heating of a moist boundary layer beneath a stout EML plume will once again support an area of moderate to strong instability over ENC, with MLCAPE reaching, or exceeding, 3000j/kg. The majority of deterministic guidance suggests a moderate to strong cap will remain in place through the day, which would be a significant limiting factor for sustained deep convection. Not all guidance shows this, though.
Adding to the limitations is the mid/upper ridging near the region, providing an area of large-scale subsidence. The effect of ridging may be short-lived, though, as guidance suggests the ridge will flatten late in the day as an upper trough pivots east across the Ohio Valley.

What appears likely is that there will be several clusters of severe thunderstorms well upstream associated with the upper trough. Guidance differs on the evolution of these clusters of storms, but upscale growth, and the upper pattern, favors one, or more, MCS' translating east from the OH/TN Valleys to the Mid- Atlantic/Carolinas. This convection will encounter the strong cap mentioned above, making it unclear whether or not convection can survive all the way to ENC. Should sufficient erosion of the cap occur, as some guidance suggests, there would be sufficient shear and instability to support MCS maintenance and an attendant risk of damaging winds. Some hail could occur as well, but wind appears to be the primary risk. Stay tuned for updates through the day on this potential. For now, we'll continue to hold with a low chance of thunderstorms focused north of HWY 70. This is also where the cap may be the "weakest", and where the greatest risk of severe weather would be focused.

Otherwise, moderate to strong heating, plus warming thicknesses, beneath the ridge should support highs reaching the 90s inland, and 80s along the coast. With dewpoints in the 60s and 70s, this should allow the "feels like" temperature to reach the mid to upper 90s for much of the area.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditional severe thunderstorm risk may linger into tonight

The mid/upper level ridge over the region will continue to get flattened tonight as an upper trough shifts east from the OH Valley to the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Guidance suggests multiple MCS' may be ongoing upstream of ENC, and the environment may support some continuation of this activity into the eastern Carolinas with an associated risk of gusty to damaging winds.
Given the expectation of a strong cap in place, any MCS may tend to weaken with time as it approaches the area, but stay tuned for updates on this potential.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 0400 Thursday...

Hot again on Saturday in downsloping flow, push highs into the lower or mid 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s. Heat indices in the upper 90s FRI, mid 90s SAT. Westerly flow intersecting the sea breeze could produce isolated storms during the afternoon with a slight uptick in rain chances during the evening as a cold front approaches the area, crossing overnight.
Followed by a secondary backdoor front end of the weekend.

Quiet and relatively cool early through midweek ahead of the next vertically stacked low to dig toward the Carolinas late week.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Saturday/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence TSRA risk over the next 24 hrs

Mid to upper level ridging will be nosing into the area today, with some subsidence and a fairly stout cap. It will be sufficiently unstable for TSRA, but ridging and the cap calls into question whether or not TSRA will impact ENC over the next 24 hrs. For now, we'll keep a VFR TAF going for all terminals given the low confidence forecast. The focus through Friday night will be TSRA well upstream across the TN and OH Valleys.
Some guidance suggests this activity will survive the trek across the Appalachians and the piedmont of the Carolinas, eventually reaching ENC late Friday afternoon or Friday evening.
Should this scenario play out, the environment appears supportive of strong wind gusts of 30-50kt+ and sub-VFR conditions. Stay tuned for updates with later updates in case confidence were to increase regarding the TSRA potential.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...Shower chances decrease late this week and into the weekend, but isolated to scattered coverage will be possible each day (primarily during the afternoon).

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy winds and elevated seas to continue through tonight

- The thunderstorm risk appears generally lower through tonight

A modest pressure gradient across the area this morning will tighten later today through tonight, supporting a continuation of modest southwesterly flow (10-20kt) across area waters. For the coastal waters, this will keep seas elevated (3-5 ft). In general, the thunderstorm risk appears much lower today compared to yesterday. That said, at least some guidance suggests a cluster of thunderstorms may impact the central and northern waters later today through this evening. Should this occur, there would be an increased risk of 30-50kt+ wind gusts.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...Boating conditions deteriorate Saturday ahead of the next cold front to cross area waters leading to probable SCA conditions in SWerly 15-25kt winds SAT afternoon and evening. Secondary backdoor front sinks S across waters late Sunday. High pressure builds in with Nerly surge late SUN night/MON AM. Generally 10-15kt winds slowly through early week N-NEerly Tuesday becoming Eerly Wednesday as offshore high departs SEward and next low approaches from the W.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.