Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Broad Creek, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Risk of dangerous heat later this week.

2) Pattern expected to become more conducive for showers and storms late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Guidance continues high with low level thicknesses later this week, with the warmest temperatures expected Thursday and especially Friday. While temperatures may flirt with records at best, forecast aids and ensemble guidance suggest multiple days of well above normal temperatures. This combined with increasing humidity is forecast to support widespread "feels like" temperatures of 100-105 degrees, with the best chance of reaching records and/or heat indices above 105 on Friday. Additionally, the NWS' experimental Heat Risk guidance shows a moderate to major heat risk for much of ENC from Friday into the weekend. The one caveat (discussed in more detail in KEY MESSAGE 2) is the potential for afternoon showers/storms late in the week as this could provide relief from the heat for some areas each day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing moisture and instability beneath weakening ridging aloft is expected to support a pattern that is more conducive to a daily risk of convection. Initially this may be mostly seen as a more active seabreeze. However, by the weekend there may be some added large-scale forcing from various upper level impulses forecast to move through, or glance, the region. While the strongest shear looks to be removed from the area, moderate to strong instability may support a daily risk of marginally severe, pulse convection (fairly typical for this time of year).

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A dry, post-frontal airmass is now fully entrenched across ENC.
On the fringe of this airmass is a ribbon of low CIGs that stretches from SE North Carolina north through SW Virginia.
These low CIGs may get nudged east overnight, but satellite trends and model guidance suggest the greatest risk of sub-VFR CIGs will remain just west of our local TAF sites.

On Tuesday, light and variable winds will increase and become southeasterly by mid to late afternoon into the early evening hours as the seabreeze moves inland. SCT cumulus development appears likely along the seabreeze, but the risk of SHRA and TSRA looks low (<5% chance).

Outlook (Wednesday through Sunday): A warm front will lift northeast across ENC Tuesday night and may be accompanied by a few SHRA. A period of low VFR CIGs may develop along this front as well. From Wednesday into Thursday, an upper level wave may combine with a moistening and destabilizing airmass to support a TSRA and sub-VFR risk. Occasionally gusty south to southwest winds are expected mid-week as well. In general, the weather pattern looks to continue to be supportive of a daily TSRA risk into the weekend.

MARINE
A backdoor cold front has passed through with occasional gusts of 20-25kt through early evening. Waters favored in northeast flow (Pamlico Sound, mouth of the Neuse River) appear to have the highest chance to reach 25kt. It looks a bit marginal and brief with the wind gusts of aoa 25kt, so will hold off on SCA issuance attm. Seas of 4-5ft will be common, with some 6-7ft waves possible for the offshore waters with the flow against the Gulf Stream. Winds will diminish to 10-15 kt later tonight, and veer srly to swrly on Tue with speeds remaining in the 10-15 kt range.

Outlook (Tue night through Sat): High pressure continues to dominate. From mid to late week, a strengthening swrly flow is forecast to develop due to the strengthening thermal gradient.
A daily risk of 25kt winds appears likely during this time, especially Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evenings when the thermal gradient is expected to be the strongest.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.