Broad Creek, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Broad Creek, NC


December 9, 2023 4:29 AM EST (09:29 UTC)
Sunrise 7:02AM   Sunset 4:57PM   Moonrise  3:35AM   Moonset 2:31PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 355 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...
Today..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. NEar shore, seas 1 ft, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop this afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds, decreasing to 4 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms. Showers likely in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, except 6 to 9 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 355 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure continues to move offshore today. A strong cold front will then track across the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and widespread showers. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to enc next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Broad Creek, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 090823 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 323 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure pushes offshore today out ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front will then track across the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and widespread showers.
High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to ENC into the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 3 AM Sat...The proverbial calm before the storm today as above average temps and fair weather are forecast across the CWA.
Upper level pattern is denoted by ridging aloft pushing offshore as an upper level trough sweeps across the Plains. At the surface, ridge of high pressure currently along the coast also pushes offshore while a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes SW'wards to the Southern Plains tracks east and gets into the Tennessee River Valley by tonight.

With this in mind, not much has changed in the near term. Still expecting a dry forecast across all of ENC through daybreak, though widespread high cirrus continues to spread NE'wards across the CWA in association with a weak surface trough located just off the coast this morning. This has slowed or even stopped temperatures from falling across ENC with temps forecast to slowly rise closer to daybreak as WAA begins to increase across the FA. Overnight lows have likely already been met with lows getting into the low to mid 40s.

Otherwise expect high pressure to push offshore today allowing winds to become S'rly across the entire area later this morning.
Weak coastal trough will also depart by this afternoon, though as it makes its closest point of approach to ENC later today a few isolated showers will be possible primarily along the OBX.
As a result have kept the SChc PoP's across the OBX and coastal waters with areas west of this remaining dry today. The coast and OBX is also where the thickest cloud cover will be located today with thinner high cirrus noted across areas west of Hwy 17.
This cloud cover is forecast to gradually push offshore later this afternoon and evening resulting in partly cloudy skies across ENC by tonight. Highs will be above average in the low 70s and upper 60s given the ongoing WAA and clearing skies today.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 3 AM Sat... Upper level trough continues to approach from the west beginning to get a more negative tilt as it approaches the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, cold front continues to approach from the west as well getting to the Appalachians by daybreak. This will allow clouds to begin to invade in from the west late tonight as well as increase PoP chances as showers begin to overspread the FA as the evening progresses. For now latest trends continue to support SChc to Chc PoP's spreading from SW-NE late tonight, though if rain does fall amounts will be light. With the frontal boundary approaching S'rly winds will also begin to increase albeit slightly with sustained winds forecast to increase from 5 mph or less to 5-10 mph. Given the increasing winds and increasing cloud cover, tonight's lows remain much warmer than previous nights with low temps only getting into the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold front to bring heavy rain, strong winds, and possibly a few thunderstorms Sunday/Sunday night

2) Turning cold and dry next week

FORECAST DETAILS

The main focus in the long term period continues to be the strong cold front that is forecast to move through the length of the US East Coast Sunday/Sunday night. This front will move through the region as a potent shortwave lifts northeast across the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic States. Of note, ensemble guidance have trended a bit stronger with this wave which, at minimum, could support stronger large-scale forcing.

By Saturday night, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to an increasing southerly flow, with an uptick in moisture advection into the coastal Carolinas. With increasing WAA, this may allow a chance of showers to work inland through the night. Moisture transport will markedly increase on Sunday as the above-mentioned potent s/w approaches from the west, and begins to take on more of a negative tilt. Moisture advection will be aided by an anomalously strong SSWerly 50-60kt LLJ straight off the Gulf of Mexico/Western Atlantic. Within this flow, an impressive plume of 1.50"+ PWATs will surge north through the eastern Carolinas. There will be multiple sources of lift, including strong WAA, a diffluent flow aloft, moderate to strong frontal forcing, and a pre-frontal convergent axis. The combination of moderate to strong lift and anomalous moisture continues to point towards a solid 1-2" of rain areawide.
For the most part, guidance has remained consistent with rainfall amounts. However, there continues to be some differences in where the highest amounts will be, and I suspect this is largely driven by where convection factors in (ie. supporting higher rainfall rates).
Where convection occurs, rainfall amounts of 2-3" will be possible.

The convective potential remains a forecast and messaging challenge.
Despite strong warm/moist advection, lapse rates aloft will be weak, and temps/dewpoints may only top out in the 60s. The southerly flow over the cooler near-shore waters may factor in as well. All-in-all, this points towards a high shear/low CAPE scenario, with instability being a significant limiting factor for a greater severe weather potential. That said, because of the strong winds aloft, even weak convection could help to mix down some of those impressive LLJ winds. The main thunderstorm hazard expected, then, will be wind gusts of 50+ mph. The greater severe threat should stay offshore.

Lastly, the strong kinematics at play, and a strong pressure gradient along/ahead of the front, will support a period of strong winds Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Probabilistic guidance is giving a 50-70% chance of exceeding 45 mph gusts along the coast, and a Wind Advisory will be needed if these probabilities remain high. Inland, it will be windy as well, but 45 mph probabilities are lower (30-50% chance). Inland, the best chance of seeing 45 mph winds may actually come just behind the front as mixing deepens just prior to the stronger winds aloft shifting away from the area.

Gusty winds will continue into the day Monday, but will gradually subside by late Monday. A dry and colder airmass then moves back in for next week, with a broad area of high pressure overhead.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/...
As of 3 AM Saturday... Not much change in the forecast this morning as high clouds continue to thicken and lower with moisture advection aloft increasing. This trend will continue over the next few hours into the morning before cloud cover begins to lessen as the coastal trough causing this cloud cover pushes further offshore. Guidance continues to trend towards having FEW to SCT decks above 15kft by this afternoon across all of ENC. Skies remain partly cloudy at best and above 10 kft through much of tonight as well. Winds will be light s to swrly through the taf pd.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...The main impact period in the long term will be Sunday- Monday as a cold front moves through. The front will be accompanied by widespread sub-VFR conditions, with periods of IFR, or lower, conditions expected in low CIGs, SHRA, and possible TSRA. Strong south winds will gust as high as 25-35kt Sunday afternoon and Sunday night ahead of the front.
Behind the front, gusty northerly winds will continue into Monday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/...
As of 315 AM Saturday... Obs continue to show fair conditions across our waters this morning with widespread 5-15 kt S-SW'rly winds and 2-3 ft seas across the area. Winds and seas don't change much through today as high pressure remains in control of the weather for the most part. A weak coastal trough may bring some scattered showers to our coastal waters today but little in the way of impact is expected from this activity. As we get into tonight, conditions begin to deteriorate as a cold front approaches from the west. This will tighten the pressure gradient slightly allowing S'rly winds to increase to 10-20 kts with gusts in excess of 25 kts across our coastal waters. In response to this, seas will also begin to build closer to 3-5 ft as well tonight. Further increases in winds and seas are forecast for Sunday as well.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday night into Monday

FORECAST DETAILS

Boating conditions begin to worsen Saturday night, becoming hazardous Sunday through Monday as a cold front moves through.
Ahead of the front, strong southerly Gales will develop, with a few storm force gusts possible over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Seas will build to 7-14 ft during this time, highest from Cape Hatteras south. Across the cooler waters, winds will be near, or just below, gale force. A Gale Watch has been issued for all coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound Sunday night into Monday morning. Behind the front, gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30kt will continue into Monday morning before gradually laying down. Seas will take some time to lay down, but should fall to 4-6 ft by Monday night or Tuesday. Along the front, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected.
With such strong winds aloft, any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of producing areas of enhanced winds. Over the warmer waters, the showers and thunderstorms will likely be what helps produce occasional storm- force gusts.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ135.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ150.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ152-154-156-158.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 13 mi59 min ESE 1G2.9
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 21 mi89 min SSE 1.9G1.9 61°F 30.25
41159 35 mi63 min 72°F2 ft
41064 36 mi81 min SW 5.8G9.7 68°F 73°F30.2259°F

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Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KNJM BOGUE FIELD MCALF,NC 7 sm32 mincalm10 smClear52°F46°F82%30.23
KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC 13 sm31 mincalm10 smClear52°F50°F94%30.23
KNKT CHERRY POINT MCAS /CUNNINGHAM FIELD/,NC 13 sm33 mincalm10 smClear43°F41°F93%30.23

Wind History from NJM
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
   
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Spooner Creek
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Sat -- 12:24 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:20 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:31 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:47 PM EST     1.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet
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Tide / Current for Coral Bay, Atlantic Beach, North Carolina
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Coral Bay
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Sat -- 03:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:00 AM EST     1.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:50 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:31 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:14 PM EST     1.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Coral Bay, Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet
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Morehead City, NC,



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