Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fence Lake, NM

DISCUSSION
Northern Arizona is on the dry and windy southern end of a strong low pressure system centered over the NW United States. Critical fire weather conditions are being observed over much of our area this afternoon, with RH values 8-15% and southwest winds 15-25 mph gusting 35 to 45 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8 PM MST this evening for nearly all of northern Arizona. These winds will be slow to taper off this evening, with breezy winds likely continuing all night over the higher terrain and areas immediately downwind. This will keep overnight lows on the mild side again. While the main part of the low will move eastward into the northern Rockies on Sunday, a weaker part of the trough will hang back over central California and remain there through the middle of next week. This will lead to another breezy day Sunday, especially in northeast Arizona where a Red Flag Warning will be in effect once again. Sunday's high temperatures are expected to be the coolest of the week, ranging from 5 to 10 degrees below average for late June. Monday's winds are forecast to be near-critical, falling just short of Red Flag criteria in northeast Arizona but this bears watching.

Tuesday through Friday - southerly flow develops between the low to our west and ridging to the east. This will pull deep moisture northward into New Mexico, with most of Arizona missing out on this. The exception looks like far eastern Arizona where there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Right now, this is expected to remain east of a Payson-Winslow-Four Corners line, with the highest chances (20-40%) over Apache County and especially the White Mountains on Tuesday and then a bit lower chances Wednesday onward. Daily high temperatures will slowly increase to near or just a bit above normal through the week.

AVIATION
Sunday 22/00Z through Monday 23/00Z...VFR conditions.
S-SW winds at 20-30 kts with gusts to 35-45 kts through 03Z.
Winds remain elevated overnight at 10-20 kts, with the strongest winds along/downwind of higher terrain. Winds increase to 15-25 kts with gusts to 35 kts after 14Z.

OUTLOOK
Monday 23/00Z through Wednesday 25/00Z
VFR conditions.
S-SW winds at 15-25 kts with gusts to 35 kts through 03Z/Mon, then becoming S-SW at 10-20 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts after 16Z/Mon. Winds decrease on Tuesday to 5-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. Strongest winds expected along/east of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line each day. Expect generally light and variable winds during the overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER
Today through Monday...Dry and windy, with a Red Flag Warning across most of northern AZ today and across northeast AZ tomorrow. Southwest winds 20-30 mph gusting 35-50 mph this afternoon, then 10-20 mph gusting 30-40 mph tomorrow. Gusty winds will combine with minimum RH 10-15% and dry fuels for much of northeast Arizona to bring Critical fire weather conditions today and Sunday. Less windy but still breezy on Monday, winds are southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Less windy with a gradual warming trend.
Minimum RH 5-15% on each day, slightly higher in eastern AZ where a daily 20-40% chance of thunderstorms is forecast. Southwest winds 10- 15 mph on Tuesday, then southwest through west winds around 10 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs 4-8 degrees below average on Tuesday, recovering to near average by Thursday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>117-137>140.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004- 006>015-039-040.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ109>114-139-140.