Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lebec, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...17/1236 PM.

Pockets of drizzle and light rain continue to fall out of a 5000 foot marine layer this afternoon, mainly in the immediate vicinity of the south facing coastal slopes. Otherwise, a deep stratus layer along with a whopping 9mb gradient to the east are keeping skies mostly cloudy south of Pt Conception. Along the Central Coast low clouds are clearing out a little faster with a stiff northwest breeze, but temperatures are chilly with highs today only in the low to mid 60s across coast and valleys and 50s in the mountains. The gusty northwest winds along the Central Coast will spread south into parts of southern Santa Barbara County later this afternoon and tonight with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Gusty winds are likely even into the city of Santa Barbara. And strong southwest winds will continue across the Antelope Valley through this weekend.

High pressure will build in from the west tonight through the middle of next week bringing warmer temperatures back to the area.
Most areas should see 5-10 degrees of warming Sunday and either minimal or no marine layer stratus. Gusty north winds are expected through the Grapevine Sunday night into Monday morning as gradients weaken and shift lightly offshore.

The shift to light offshore flow along with a warm air mass will bring much warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday. By Monday most areas away from the immediate coast will be in the 80s to lower 90s. Could still have a shallow marine layer Monday morning across coastal LA County with areas of dense fog. Then 5 to 10 degrees warmer Tuesday with warmer valleys in the mid to upper 90s. It's possible heat advisories will be needed as early as Tuesday, but chances rise to 80-90% that they will be needed after Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...17/1243 PM.

Wednesday still looks like the hottest day but Thursday will be a close second with highs in the lower 100s in the warmer valleys and 80s and 90s elsewhere away from the immediate coast. While the magnitude of this heat wave will be similar to the last one a couple weeks ago, the duration will be at least two days longer leading to higher heat stress. Overnight lows will be warmer as well, especially in areas above 1000 feet elevation. Daily temperature records will be at risk for being broken. Anyone planning outdoor activities next week should strongly consider postponing to a cooler day.

A cooling trend will slowly begin Thursday but temperatures will remain above normal through next weekend.

AVIATION
18/0005Z.

At 2148Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 5600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 6600 feet with a temperature of 9 C.

Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF Package. Timing of Cig/vsby restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours. Flight cats may be off one or two. For desert sites (KPMD, KWJF), better chances of BLDU and MVFR vsbys tomorrow as gusty winds shift more towards the NW.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. MVFR to VFR cigs (<035)
through around 19Z Sun. There is a 30-40% chance of east wind component reaching 7-8kts from 09Z to 16Z Sun.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Periods of VFR CIGs are possible through 15Z Sun.

MARINE
17/200 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds will increase to GALE FORCE this afternoon and continue through Sunday night, although there may be a bit of a lull Sunday morning. Along with the GALE FORCE winds, short period, steep seas will hover around 10 feet through Sunday night.
Some uncertainty has been introduced for Monday into Tuesday, as most recent model runs are suggesting strong Gale Force winds on Monday afternoon and lingering into Tuesday. As there has only been one run suggesting such strong winds, confidence remains low on the potential for Gales Monday. Otherwise, for Monday through Wednesday, winds will diminish to Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels while seas will hover around 10 feet through the week.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today, high confidence in SCA winds developing this morning then increasing to GALE FORCE this afternoon through tonight. For Sunday and Sunday night, high confidence in SCA level winds with a 30-40% chance of GALE FORCE winds developing. Through Sunday night, seas will hover near 10 feet. On Monday, there is a 40-50% chance chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon/evening, and a 10-20% chance of reaching Gale Force levels. For Tuesday through Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of winds reaching SCA levels during the afternoon/evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through tonight, high confidence in the development of SCA level winds with a 60-70% chance of GALE FORCE winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel. For Sunday and Sunday night, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel (with a 20-30% chance of another round of Gale force winds in the afternoon/evening), as well as a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds elsewhere south of Point Conception. For Monday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel. Then Tuesday through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 340-341-343-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349>352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PDT Monday for zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).