Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lebec, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/158 PM.

Very warm and dry conditions continue as this long standing Santa Ana pattern goes into its seventh day. Today has been the warmest day of the string, though Thursday probably won't be much different. Highs today have been within a few degrees of some records but it doesn't look like any will fall or tie today. The warmest temps were in coastal Ventura County, including 87 at the Oxnard forecast office and 88 near Pt Hueneme.

Breezy offshore winds continue today, mostly low end advisory level and have extended some of those for another 24 hours, mainly in the valley and mountain areas.

Another warm day on tap Thursday, likely within a degree or two of today.

A very slow (1-2 degree/day) cooling trend will likely begin Friday and last into next week but it's going to take most of next week before temperatures are back to normal levels.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/206 PM.

Well above normal temperatures will continue through at least through Tuesday with highs in the in the mid 70s to mid 80s for most coast/valley areas. High pressure will start to break down around Wednesday with a return to onshore flow around that time as well which will bring temperatures back to near normal levels. The 18z GFS deterministic run actually shows a legitimate upper low coming through the area next Thursday and Friday, though the vast majority of the ensemble solutions indicate little to no rain until next weekend at the earliest.

AVIATION
14/2335Z.

Around 23Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a surface-based inversion up to around 1400 feet with a temperature near 25 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in the current forecast for flight categories.
Moderate confidence in timing of the winds and wind impacts. VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a moderate to high chance of moderate to occasionally strong low-level wind shear and turbulence through 20Z at terminals south of Point Conception.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Any easterly winds should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 30 percent chance of moderate to occasionally strong low-level wind shear and turbulence through 16Z.

MARINE
14/113 PM.

Moderate risk of NE to E wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots from Ventura through Santa Monica tonight through Thursday morning, then again late Thursday through Friday and possibly into Saturday morning. These winds may fill more of the Santa Barbara Channel than usual and further out through the west Channel Islands through Thursday afternoon, but the southern Santa Barbara Coast will remain fairly calm. There is a clear enough lull in winds Thursday afternoon through late night to end the Small Craft Advisory (SCA), but another SCA is possible late Thursday into Friday afternoon.

NE wind gusts of at least 10 to 15 knots are also likely off the SLO County Coast and in the San Pedro Channel (including Catalina Island), with a low but non-zero risk of reaching 25 knots.
Expect short-period choppy seas with these winds.

A long period west to northwest swell will fill in over the region through Thursday, but wave heights will stay under 8 feet through the weekend and into next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 2 PM PST Thursday for zones 88-358-369-371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 3 PM PST Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).