Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Davis, NC

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:55PM Saturday August 17, 2019 1:41 PM EDT (17:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 7:11AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 944 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely. A slight chance of tstms late this morning, then a chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. A chance of tstms. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. Tstms likely. Showers.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Davis, NC
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location: 34.79, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 171443
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1043 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A dissipating cold front will remain stalled to the west today.

Low pressure will track northeast across eastern nc late tonight
and Sunday. High pressure offshore will extend west into
eastern north carolina through mid week. A cold front will
approach late week.

Near term rest of today
As of 1030 am Saturday... Minor tweaks for the near term forecast
this morning, mainly to capture the slower trend of increasing
pops from south to north. Latest visible satellite indicates low
stratus dissipating for inland locations which should aid in
diurnal convective development of the next few hours, thus
maintained high chance pops inland with likely pops along the
coast. 12z kmhx sounding indicated a very moist airmass with a
pwat value of 2.14 inches, above the 90th percentile for the
date, with weak instability and shear.

Another in a series of embedded shortwaves will lift through
the area through the morning hours, so we expect an uptick in
coverage and intensity of the showers, esp. For the southern
zones. Deeper moisture expected to shift slightly south and
eastward with mid level drying inland keeping the most widespread
precip closer the coast, though scattered showers and thunderstorms
can be expected anywhere during the afternoon with diurnal
heating increasing sfc based capes AOA 2000 j kg. Effective
shear only expected to be around 15 kt so severe chances will be
minimal, but storms still have the potential to produce heavy
rainfall in the 2+ pw environment. Highs expected to be in the
upper 80s to the north where less rain expected, to the mid 80s
most other areas.

Short term tonight
As of 4 am sat... A stronger low pressure area expected to begin
to move up and through E nc by late tonight into early Sunday.

This feature now being captured by many of the 17 00z model
cycles. Deep tropical moisture will be embedded in this system,
and latest ECMWF advertising pw's rising to above 2.5", above
the climo MAX for the region. Tough to pinpoint the exact low
track and hence heaviest rains, but will fcst a model blend and
have highest pops and QPF near the coast, where several inches
are possible. There may be a flood concern for the eastern
counties outside of the coastal plain, where previous heavy
rains have fallen over the last day or two, and will have to
monitor for a flash flood issuance with later updates.

Long term Sunday through Friday
As of 310 am sat... Weak broad upper troughing with rising
heights will remain over the area into early next week. At the
surface, low pressure will track northeast across the nc coastal
plain Sunday with heavy rain possible through the afternoon. A
more amplified upper trough is forecast for late next week which
should push a stronger cold front into and possibly through the
region late in the period. This pattern will keep warm muggy
and unsettled conditions across eastern nc through late next
week.

Sun... Expecting widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to
move across the area through early afternoon as the
aforementioned low tracks across the region. The shower activity
should become scattered in the mid to late afternoon. Locally
heavy amounts are possible with pw values forecast to be around
2.5".

Mon thru fri... Typical summer pattern expected with offshore
high pressure and an inland trough producing a very warm and
muggy southerly flow across the area. Scattered mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected through mid
week. The showers and thunderstorms could become more numerous
thu and Fri as a cold front moves into the area in response to
the amplifying mid level flow. Temps will cont near to slightly
above normal with upr 80s and lower 90s for highs and muggy 70s
for lows.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 7 am sat... Mixed bag of conditions across E nc. Where mid
clouds and rain have cleared out inland, conditions already
tanking to ifr or lower. Further east at kewn and koaj, MVFR or
higher exists. Think that eventually most locations will see at
least some ifr tonight even the eastern TAF sites due to
plentiful low level moisture, though ocnl showers moving through
kewn and koaj will make ifr conditions more sporadic. Return to
vfr during the day sat, though ocnl showers and some storms
will reduce vsbys CIGS to subVFR again.

Long term Sun through Wednesday ...

as of 310 am sat... Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected through early Sun afternoon as low
pressure tracks across the area. Scattered mainly afternoon and
evening showers and tstms expected through Mon through Wed with
brief periods of subVFR conditions. In addition, some patchy
fog st poss late night early morn with high dewpts and rather
light winds.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 1040 am sat... Latest surface and buoy data indicate W wnw
winds 5-15 kt across the waters with seas ranging 3 to 5 ft.

Gradient winds will relax some through later today, though low
pressure moving north through the eastern nc waters tonight
will cause southerly winds to increase to 15-20 kt with higher
gusts again, bringing seas back into the 5-7 ft range. Therefore
adjusted SCA to extend into Sunday. For the rest of the area,
winds generally in the 5-15 kt range through the period.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

as of 310 am sat... Very difficult forecast Sun into Sun night
as an area of low pressure is forecast to track across the nc
coastal plain. Expecting a period of SCA winds and seas with
this feature sun. Significant differences in the track of the
low have led to a low confidence forecast and will forecast
winds 10-20 kt with higher gusts and seas 4-7 ft for now and
continue to monitor. Remainder of the forecast mon-wed will see
s SW flow 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft as atlantic high pressure
prevails across the waters.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Sunday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Sunday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Dag tl
short term... Tl
long term... Jme
aviation... Jme tl
marine... Dag jme tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 10 mi54 min SSW 4.1 G 7 82°F 83°F1018 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 12 mi42 min SW 5.1 G 8 80°F 1017.7 hPa (+0.9)78°F
41159 46 mi42 min 84°F5 ft
41064 47 mi34 min WNW 9.7 G 14 80°F 84°F1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC9 mi1.7 hrsSW 610.00 miOvercast81°F77°F88%1017.4 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC16 mi46 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F77°F85%1017.4 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC20 mi48 minN 010.00 miOvercast84°F75°F77%1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRH

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Last 24hrSW21
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W7W7NW8W4NW3W4SW7CalmSW6SW6
1 day agoSW4SW8W5W4Calm------SW8SW11SW12--------W56W15
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2 days agoSW14SW12SW15SW16SW15
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SW15SW14SW11SW9SW13SW9S7S55CalmS3W4SW3SW5NW4W4W5SW5W8

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:50 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.81.51.10.70.40.20.20.511.51.81.91.81.51.20.80.50.30.30.511.51.9

Tide / Current Tables for Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina
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Harkers Island Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:33 AM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:56 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:44 PM EDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.51.20.80.50.20.20.30.71.11.41.71.71.51.20.90.60.30.20.40.71.11.51.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.