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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 817 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Today..Tropical storm conditions. SE winds 40 to 50 kt with gusts up to 60 kt, becoming S 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt this afternoon. Waves extremely rough. Rain likely this morning. A slight chance of tstms until late afternoon. A chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..Tropical storm conditions possible. SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. A slight chance of rain in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 817 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. Tropical storm ophelia will gradually weaken as it lifts through eastern nc today. The system will move away from the area tonight and Sunday, with improving conditions.

FXUS62 KMHX 231042 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 642 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
Tropical Storm Ophelia will gradually weaken as it lifts through eastern NC today. The system will move away from the area tonight and Sunday, with improving conditions.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 640 AM Sat...Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall near Emerald Isle around 615 this morning with estimated max winds of 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Warnings continue for the entire area, with Hurricane Watches for all counties along the Crystal Coast, as well as the Neuse/Bay Rivers, southern Craven, and Pamlico counties with the potential for gusts to 85-90 mph at times.
Tropical Storm Ophelia will then grad weaken and lift north through eastern NC today, with strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall impacts continuing, but improving conditions expected later in the day. For detailed surge info, see section below or hurricane local statement. Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will continue, with flash flooding possible, and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Axis of heavier rain will likely shift more inland after sunrise this morning, as deeper convection continues on the NW side of the circulation. Isolated tornado threat will continue for the next few hours, but based on radar trends the threat remains low at this time.

It is likely that drier air will begin to wrap into the storm from the south and east later in the day, with quickly diminishing rainfall coverage, and possibly some breaks in the clouds in the afternoon. The more wind driven impacts, including storm surge are expected to continue into tonight.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 245 AM Sat...TS Ophelia will continue to grad weaken and lift quickly north of the area tonight, into eastern VA and the Delmarva. Conditions will be quickly improving across the area with precip shifting north and winds grad weakening.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 AM Sat
Sunday through Tuesday
Aloft, upper level troughing will slowly track offshore the Eastern Seaboard while a shortwave ridge quickly builds in behind the departing trough Monday night into Tuesday. At the surface, Ophelia will continue to track north pulling further and further away from ENC on Sunday. By Sunday night a weak shortwave trough is forecast to round the base of the departing upper trough while at the surface a moisture starved cold front quickly tracks southwards. While we will remain dry on Sunday and Monday southwesterly flow aloft and lift from the trough will allow for partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area. Deep upper troughing then begins to dive SE'wards across the Ohio River Valley and into the Eastern CONUS Tuesday evening bringing increased precipitation chances to the area once again.
Temperatures will be at or slightly below average through this timeframe.

Midweek into next weekend... Upper troughing remains over the Eastern CONUS into the weekend, continuing to bring precip chances to the area while temperatures remain at or slightly below average through the remainder of the period.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 515 AM Sat...Widespread IFR ceilings continue across the terminals early this morning, as TS Ophelia continues to approach eastern NC. Expect ceilings to remain below VFR through the TAF period but some improvements in ceiling heights may occur very close to the end of the TAF period, particularly at southern terminals. However, IFR cigs may linger through Sun morning. Additionally, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will continue through at least mid morning, with some improvement as TS Ophelia continues to move inland grad weakening. Finally, strong winds will continue through the TAF period with crosswind components expected.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Generally expecting light winds and gusts below 20 kts with VFR conditions through the period as ENC remains dry for the most part after the departure of Ophelia.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 515 AM Sat...Very dangerous marine conditions expected through the period as Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to impact the waters. Tropical storm force winds are ongoing, with hurricane force wind gusts possible mainly south of Cape Hatteras through the next few hours. Seas peak at 15-20 ft, subsiding to 10-15 ft late today. Conditions will improve fairly quickly tonight into early Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat.. Winds gradually begin to ease across our waters on Sunday as Ophelia continues to pull further and further away as winds start out around 15-25 kts from the SW Sunday morning but then quickly ease closer to 10-15 kts by Sunday afternoon. A moisture starved cold front will sweep S'wards across our waters on Monday shifting winds to a N to NE'rly direction at 10-20 kts Monday night into Tuesday with these winds persisting into midweek potentially bringing SCA conditions to our waters Tuesday into Wednesday. 4-6 ft seas along our coastal waters lower as the winds lower, getting down to 2-4 ft by Monday with these 2-4 ft seas persisting into Tuesday morning before increasing again Tuesday night as the winds increase

HYDROLOGY
As of 515 AM Sat...Tropical Storm Ophelia will continue to impact the area today, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall through at least mid day today. 3-6 inches of rainfall have already fallen along the coast during the past 24 hours, with additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches possible, with the axis of heavier rain, 2-4+ inches, likely shifting more inland after sunrise this morning. Localized flash flooding possible through at least mid morning. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area. Rainfall coverage diminishes through the day today as drier air fills in from the south and east.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 515 AM Sat...Storm Surge Watches and Warnings remain in effect for most coastal areas, with potential for life threatening inundation (2-6 ft agl). Water levels likely peaking for areas adjacent to the Pamlico/Pungo/Neuse/Bay Rivers, and those adj to the southern Pamlico/Core and Bogue Sounds. There is still concern that once TS Ophelia makes landfall and the winds shift, the water will rise rapidly for the soundside Outer Banks today. See the Hurricane Local Statement for the latest on coastal impacts from Tropical Storm Ophelia.

Powerful swell will bring very dangerous surf conditions, moderate beach erosion, and the potential for localized ocean overwash, and an elevated rip current risk through much of the weekend. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for beaches from Cape Lookout north through this evening.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094- 193>196-198-199-203>205.
Hurricane Watch for NCZ094-194>196-199.
Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
Storm Surge Watch for NCZ045>047-199.
Storm Surge Warning for NCZ080-081-094-194>196-203>205.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158- 230-231.
Hurricane Watch for AMZ137.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Sat -- 03:10 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:25 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:47 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:51 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
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Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
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Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:47 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:46 PM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,