Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morehead City, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 2020 Sunday...The after effects of a dissipating MCV are being seen across ENC this evening with the broad rotation evident on radar. Some light rain showers are still lingering, and some more may continue to develop about the circulation.
Within this mostly stable airmass, and away from the better forcing associated with the upper level low to our west, it appears that we will be fairly dry through at least midnight save for the next few hours as MCV continues to drift toward Albemarle. Will keep a residual 15-30% chance of showers in the forecast for the first half of tonight.

Soon after midnight, SE flow will strengthen, causing PWATs to surge up to around 1.75". As this occurs the upper level low will wobble close enough that scattered convection will develop over the coastal waters and move onshore along the southern NC coast before daybreak. Though rain rates will be heavy, the scattered nature of the coverage should keep any rainfall-related issues at bay. Instability will also increase towards dawn, so a few rumbles of thunder along the coast are also possible.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
As of 4 PM Sun...An upper level low over the Deep South will become negatively tilted tomorrow allowing for strong deep moist convergence across ENC. Increasing lapse rates in the vicinity of the upper level low will enable moderate instability to develop with only tepid surface heating on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. These ingredients will combine, along with the presence of high PWAT values pushing 2", to create a threat for heavy rain and flash flooding across the western 2/3rds of ENC.
However, a long standing severe drought is in place across areas that will see the heaviest downpours, and at this time, the threat of widespread flash flooding appears low, given how dry the soils are, and how low groundwater levels are currently.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 4 PM Sun...The long term weather pattern across the eastern CONUS will be characterized by an upper low centered over the lower MS River Valley slowly lifting towards the mid- Atlantic through mid-week, gradually opening up into a shortwave as it lifts into the northern Atlantic. Sub-tropical ridging will build back over the southeastern CONUS by week's end.

Monday Night through Wednesday...At the surface, occluded low will slowly meander over the Gulf states while a second wave of low pressure, in response to the increasingly negative tilt of the upper trough, lifts across the central Carolinas. Stalled front, currently draped along the I-10 corridor, will lift back north as a warm front crossing ENC Mon night into Tuesday.
The heaviest rainfall is likely in tandem with this frontal passage overnight, and highly efficient rainfall is likely on top of what falls Monday. The heaviest QPF axis will lift from southwest to northeast, impacting the coastal plain and Crystal Coast overnight Mon and the Outer Banks Tuesday.

Rainfall totals depict a widespread 2-4" across the region, highest across the western half of the forecast area. In areas of strong convection and potential training, isolated amounts exceeding 6" are possible. In normal circumstances this would raise concerns for scattered areas of flooding, but our long- standing drought conditions (and therefore very high FFGs at all time frames), point to a lower risk favoring urban and typically vulnerable areas.

Warm front lifts across the region on Wednesday, putting ENC firmly in the warm sector. More typical summer-time precipitation pattern returns at the point, with slightly drier column but scattered to numerous thunderstorms likely in the afternoon along seabreeze boundaries.

Thursday through Saturday...Typical summertime pattern remains through the end of the week with daily chances of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms on Thurs, decreasing Friday as mid-level ridge strengthens. Temperatures will steadily climb through the end of the week, peaking in the low 90s by Fri and Sat. Another cold front will approach the region next weekend, but typical model spread precludes any PoP mention this cycle.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Monday Afternoon/...
As of 2020 Sunday...Mixed bag at TAF issuance time but the overarching theme of this cycle is brief return to VFR flight cats as we enter a small lull in precip coverage the first part of tonight with deteriorating flight conditions through the early morning hours. By early MON morning, increasing low level moisture and advancing rain showers from the west will lead to lowering CIGs , with MVFR conditions likely at all TAF sites before sunrise. Precip coverage and intensity will increase tomorrow from SSW to NNE, and MVFR conditions are expected to continue through the day, with some periods of IFR conditions possible in the heaviest downpours/squalls. Increasing chances for lightning after sunrise as well.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 4 PM Sun...Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday night and Tuesday, lifting across area terminals from the southwest to northeast and the heaviest rain likely overnight Mon. Widespread low-MVFR to IFR is likely Mon Night and Tuesday, with improvement to periods of VFR and MVFR late Tuesday as warm front lifts across the terminals. By Wednesday and Thursday, prevailing VFR returns but with diurnal thunderstorm chances.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 4 PM Sun...Decent boating conditions will continue through tonight. Thereafter, increasing coverage of convection, followed by increasing winds will lead to Small Craft conditions developing across portions of the coastal waters late tomorrow morning.

Winds will be generally, SE at 10-15 kts through tonight, and then increase to SE 15-20 kts with frequent gusts to 25 kts early tomorrow afternoon. Seas will be 2-4 ft through tonight, and then increase to 4-6 ft late tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 4 PM Sun...Main period of concern for marine interests will be Monday night through Tuesday as deepening low pressure lifts a warm front across the waters, with SE winds of 15-25 kt, peaking Tues aft and seas building to 6-8 feet. Winds return to 10-15 kt out of the southwest on Wednesday as front lifts across area waters, with seas falling back to 3-4 feet. Winds weaken further on Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.