Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Red Springs, NC

KEY MESSAGES
As of 340 PM Tuesday...

1) This afternoon will likely be the day with the greatest shower and thunderstorm coverage out of the next seven days. There are threats for both excessive rainfall as well as damaging wind gusts.

2) Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue from Wednesday through Friday, mainly each afternoon through evening. Coverage may become more isolated this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION
As of 340 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... This afternoon will likely be the day with the greatest shower and thunderstorm coverage out of the next seven days. There are threats for both excessive rainfall as well as damaging wind gusts.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to slowly expand in coverage from east to west. Nearly all locations are forecast to receive at least some minimal precipitation. The wind through the vertical column of the atmosphere is minimal, which means both that it will be hard for storms to become organized for any sort of widespread severe potential in addition to showers/storms moving slowly. The combination of slow moving showers/storms and very moist air (precipitable water values >= 2 inches) is the reason that the entire forecast area is under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. It is possible that a stationary front, extending generally from Roanoke Rapids to Wadesboro, could serve as a focus for showers. In addition, there is a marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk for severe weather this afternoon across western counties, primarily driven by a closed upper low over Georgia. Instability values should be slightly higher closer to the low, and while there is a high overcast sky across much of the region, the low could help trigger some stronger storms. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will begin to diminish around sunset, with minimal showers occurring after midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue from Wednesday through Friday, mainly each afternoon through evening. Coverage may become more isolated this weekend into early next week.

The closed mid/upper low over GA will weaken and devolve into an open wave over the central/southern Appalachians on Wednesday, then a flat shear axis by late week as it gets absorbed by the broad trough over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile the subtropical high over the Western Atlantic will inch its way westward, getting closer to the Mid-Atlantic coast each day. Thus shower and storm coverage should generally be less compared to today, mostly isolated to scattered in nature, with the greatest coverage over the NW (in closest proximity to the trough) and perhaps a secondary maximum in the SE (in closest proximity to the sea breeze). Still, deep and persistent SSW flow will continue to result in PW values about 100-125% of normal and moderate instability. Thus localized spots could have rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr, and WPC has at least part if not most of central NC in a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall each day.

The Great Lakes trough will begin to shift east and flatten this weekend into early next week, as the subtropical high extends farther west to the Southeast US coast. This will result in more zonal flow across the Eastern US and possibly a bit lower convective chances, but there will still be some moisture and instability around. So POPs are mainly low chance this weekend and slight by early next week.

High temperatures will be mainly in the mid-to-upper-80s through this weekend, except perhaps some lower-90s in the far south.
Forecast highs increase to lower-to-mid-90s early next week, and with continued humid conditions, heat indices in the lower-100s will be possible across the south and east.



AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 105 PM Tuesday...

TAF period: Showers and thunderstorms will spread from east to west this afternoon. As of early afternoon, thunderstorm coverage has been minimal, but coverage should increase through the afternoon. No particular confidence in which terminals may have thunderstorms, but they will be possible at any site and will bring the potential for reduced cig/vis. Coverage of showers should begin to wane around sunset, with mostly dry conditions by midnight.

The bulk of the afternoon should have MVFR ceilings, although RDU/RWI have been VFR through the morning. IFR/LIFR ceilings will begin to expand into INT/GSO/RDU by 04-06Z. Meanwhile, to the east at FAY and RWI, flight restrictions will be conditional based on whether cloud cover is high enough to produce ceilings - it appears that visibilities should remain VFR at these sites, but if ceilings are able to form late tonight, they would likely be IFR. Flight conditions should rise back to MVFR at all terminals except FAY Wednesday morning, which will likely rise to VFR.

The wind will be out of the east around 5-10 kt this afternoon, dropping to 5 kt tonight and eventually veering to the south Wednesday morning.

Outlook: Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day, although coverage will be less than today. Flight restrictions will be possible late each night into the next morning.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.