Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Red Springs, NC

KEY MESSAGES
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

1) Dangerous heat likely on Thursday for all but the western Piedmont.

2) A conditional threat for strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging straight-line wind gusts remains Thursday afternoon and evening, with greatest chances for rain late Thursday night into Friday.

3) Increased Fire Danger on Thursday as strong gusty winds and hot temperatures overlap with critically dry, drought-cured fuels.

DISCUSSION
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerous heat likely on Thursday for all but the western Piedmont.

A surface cold front will gradually approach our area from the NNW Thu, while the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur (likely to be a depression or remnant low by that time) tracks across central MS and AL toward GA/SC. Ahead of these systems, a hot southwest flow will pump above-normal thicknesses into central NC. Readings about 10-15 m above normal combined with deep mixing tapping into anomalous warmth aloft (including 850 mb temps projected to be 18.5-21 C, above the 90th percentile) and decent insolation for much of the day will push temps up well into the 90s. The western Piedmont including the Triad should see low-mid 90s for highs (especially with an earlier arrival time of high clouds blowing off of upstream convection), but the Triangle to Laurinburg and points east should see highs in the mid 90s to around 100. RH values should be on the relatively low side but should still yield max heat indices in the 100-104F range, and the NWS experimental Heat Risk shows a few areas reaching the Major category (level 3 of 4), suggesting that this heat is not only unusual for this time of year, it is also correlated with high levels of heat illnesses according to historical CDC heat-health data, indicating that heat-health impacts are possible among all populations, especially those without adequate hydration and cooling. But given some uncertainty regarding the timing of upstream cloudiness spreading into our area and any subsequent detrimental effects on heating, will hold off on a heat advisory for now, but one may be needed after further analysis tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A conditional threat for strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging straight-line wind gusts remains Thursday afternoon and evening, with greatest chances for rain late Thursday night into Friday.

A scattered line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move across central North Carolina Thursday afternoon/evening, well in advance of the cold front that will move through the area on Friday. Between 1000 and 2000 J/kg of CAPE will be present, enhanced by the very hot air mass that will bring surface temperatures between 95 and 100 degrees. However, the upper-level jet streak will remain well to the north, along the United States/Canadian border, and it appears that effective shear across North Carolina will be less than 30 kt, which should limit how well the storms are able to organize locally. All of North Carolina remains under a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk, with a higher risk to the north over MD, DE, WV, and VA. The primary threat locally will be damaging wind gusts occurring during the late afternoon and evening hours.

The greater chance for rain will come later Thursday with the arrival of the cold front, but the addition of moisture from Tropical Storm Arthur will be the primary driver for precipitation.
The heaviest rainfall associated with Arthur should remain well to the south of the area, but locations south of US-64 could receive one-quarter to one-half inch of rain after midnight Thursday into Friday. Coverage of showers and storms will become a bit more spotty Friday , but up to another quarter inch of rain will be possible, greatest to the south and east. Overall, between Thursday and Friday, locations near the VA/NC border may only receive a tenth of an inch, while southern counties could receive up to an inch of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Increased Fire Danger on Thursday as strong gusty winds and hot temperatures overlap with critically dry, drought- cured fuels.

The stout SW winds out ahead of the approaching surface front (from the NNW) and approaching dissipating tropical system (from the WSW)
are expected to peak at sustained values of 15-20 mph, with frequent gusts as high as 20-35 mph expected as deep mixing taps into strong winds just aloft. While RH values are expected to be mostly over 35% and thus above typical critical thresholds, the ongoing severe-to- exceptional drought and exceptionally dry fuels combined with these gusty winds will lead to an increased risk of fire ignition and adverse fire behavior over much of NC Thu, from just inland to just east of the Foothills. This risk will be amplified by erratic and shifting winds and gusts in and near storms. After coordination with the NC Forest Service and their field operations staff, have issued a fire danger statement for Thu to address the increased fire danger.

AVIATION /00z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 657 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will continue through the remainder of the evening and early overnight hours. Weak pre-frontal moist advection could support the development of some MVFR stratocu early Thursday morning but this should mix out with VFR conditions returning by mid morning. After that, expect shower and thunderstorm development first across the western Piedmont, then gradually shifting eastward by the end of the TAF period. Based on 12Z HRRR I elected to introduce PROB30's for thunder starting at 20Z at INT/GSO, 21Z at RDU/FAY, and closer to 22Z at RWI. Gusty winds and reduced vsbys can be expected with the strongest storms. Showers and storms are likely to persist through the end of the TAF period.

Otherwise, expect breezy southwesterly winds throughout the day, with occasional mid afternoon gusts around 25kts.

Looking beyond 00Z Fri: A better chance of rain and isolated storms will arrive late Thu evening lasting into early Fri as tropical moisture crosses the Southeast states, and sub-VFR conditions may occur with this activity, best chance at FAY. VFR conditions should then dominate from late Fri through at least Sun, with another chance of sub-VFR stratus Sun night into early Mon.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

June 18: KGSO: 100/1944 KRDU: 98/2015 KFAY: 102/1944

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 18: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 77/2025 KFAY: 76/2017

June 19: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 73/2025 KFAY: 77/2017

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.