Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Red Springs, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM Saturday...

Marginal risk of flooding mainly this afternoon and evening.

Very warm and humid with mainly PM showers/thunderstorms.

The very moist conditions continue throughout the region aided by the Bermuda high pressure essentially continuously pumping moisture into the region. There will be areas of stratus through mid to late morning. It is in the areas that start to have breaks in the overcast or clear off that will have the best heating and therefore the highest probabilities of showers and thunderstorms during peak heating and beyond. Precipitable water values are 2 to 2.25 inches will combine with those areas of stronger heating supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon and evening with MLCapes in excess of 2000-2500 j/kg. Probably some of the latest CAMS may have the best fit for the convective development in general terms this afternoon. Some areas of focus for the more robust coverage may be the northwest including the Triad and possibly across the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Timing is even less of a confident forecast. However, late afternoon and evening appear the most likely times of the stronger storms.

The lack of wind shear will greatly limit the severe threat to only isolated probabilities. Thus, we are in general thunderstorms for today. The main hazard other than lightning will be the threat of slow moving storms. QPF may average 0.5 to 1 in the northwest through the northeast, lesser to the south; however, some localized 2-3 inch totals may again occur with some areas being left out.

Highs today should reach 85-90, but other than RDU most areas should stay sub-90 with all the moisture in the air. Lows tonight will continue warm and humid with mostly 70-74.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 324 AM Saturday...

A weak short-wave is forecast to move across the southern Appalachians Sunday. A lee sfc low will develop over central NC, as the atmosphere remains quite juicy (PWAT of 2+ inches). Mid-level perturbations ahead of the upper wave will initiate showers and storms over the higher terrain early Sunday afternoon. These storms will move east over central NC later Sunday afternoon and evening.

Severe Weather: SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe weather on Sunday over much of central NC. Overall though, think the risk is relatively low given weak bulk-layer shear (maybe ~20 kts develops across northern areas). However, can't rule out a stronger wind gust from any stronger cells.

Flooding: Given the highly anomalous PWAT and expected steep low- level lapse rates, high rain rates appear possible Sunday. WPC has extended their slight risk for excessive rainfall further south into central NC. As of now, northern areas appear to have the best chance for flash flooding (HRRR probabilities for exceeding 1 to 3 hrly Flash Flood Guidance peak at ~40 to 50 % along the NC/VA border). Urban areas and heavily saturated locations from previous days rainfall will be favored for flash flooding.

Daytime highs will reach the upper 80s. Warm overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s will persist Sunday night

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 324 AM Saturday...

The upper pattern over the extended period will largely feature persistent ridging through Wednesday. The ridge will break down some Thursday/Friday as a trough pushes across the Mid-Atlantic.

Still expecting decent coverage Monday and Tuesday with persistent swly flow and anomalous moisture flux across the area. Isolated flash flooding will be possible each afternoon and evening. By Wednesday, the Bermuda high is forecast to retrograde slightly, and as such, the better moisture appears to shift a bit further north.
Still expecting some afternoon showers and storms, but coverage may be a bit lower compared to prior days. The aforementioned upper trough will push across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday into Friday. This will likely trigger afternoon showers and storms. However, flow aloft may take on a wnwly component, and as such drier/limited coverage may ensue. We'll have to monitor Thursday/Friday as some deterministic guidance indicates perhaps a bit better bulk-layer shear potential (ML severe outlook guidance is also hinting at the potential for severe weather these days).

Otherwise, expect temperatures to soar into the lower to mid 90s for much of the extended. Heat indices may reach near Heat Advisory criteria middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 145 AM Saturday...

CIGS are expected to fall from MVFR to IFR at all terminals through 09z, then remain 09z through 14-15z, before lifting back to MVFR and VFR by 18z. There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon and night. A return to IFR conditions with cigs expected again tonight through Sunday morning.

Outlook: The chance of showers and thunderstorms may peak on Sunday, but the chance should continue Monday and Tuesday especially in the PM hours. Late night and early morning stratus is likely. As high pressure strengthens by mid-week, expect mostly VFR conditions and lesser chance of PM storms.

EQUIPMENT

...Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate weather and water information, and to send life-saving information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive and requires that the system be taken completely offline for approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe (WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner (WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Climate: Data will be updated in a limited fashion from Monday afternoon, June 16th through Wednesday, June 18th. Climate graphs for the Raleigh Forecast Area at https:// www.weather.gov/rah/climatePlots will not be updated.

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at https:// www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* Water level forecast services will be degraded due to a less frequent update cycle. Forecasts will remain at https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/rah through this period.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via social media, and performing other functions that can be completed without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.