Wednesday, January20, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:36PM Wednesday January 20, 2021 5:07 PM EST (22:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:49AMMoonset 12:03AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 313 Pm Est Wed Jan 20 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Through 7 pm..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 313 Pm Est Wed Jan 20 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Winds diminish tonight as high pressure slides into the area. Winds increase from the southwest on Thursday ahead of the next front that moves offshore Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the north this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 202111 CCA AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 410 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. A stalled front to our south will bring clouds to central NC on Thursday, but little in the way of wet weather. Conditions will improve Friday into the weekend as high pressure sets up across the Mid Atlantic, but temps will be below normal. Rain chances will increase early next week as a trough approaches the area.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 227 PM Wednesday .

Clear skies are present across the area this afternoon in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage earlier today. Despite the cold front, temperatures have still climbed to near/slightly above normal values with readings generally in the low to mid 50s as of 19Z. The real effect of the front has been in dewpoints which have dropped into the upper teens/lower 20s, as well as in the gusty northwesterly winds at 15-25 mph. Winds have started to taper off just a bit as the low level wind speed max associated with the front moves offshore, but BL mixing is still sufficient to support at least some breeziness at present.

For the rest of this evening/overnight, clear skies will gradually give way to increasing mid and high clouds ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The aforementioned dry cold front will stall to our south, then retreat slowly northward overnight and position itself along the NC/SC border. Along this front, expect additional cloud cover but little in the way of measurable precip. A few sprinkles could be possible along the NC/SC border but nothing of too much consequence.

Temps tonight will fall quickly given clear skies, light winds, and low dewpoints, then flatten out after midnight as clouds return. Lows in the lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 227 PM Wednesday .

The stalled front will remain to the south of the area on Thursday with a fair amount of stratocu across the area. Weak forcing for ascent could promote a few light sprinkles early in the day, but they will need to overcome a fairly deep dry BL and the threat of measurable precip is minimal. Today's 12Z guidance is less than enthused with precip chances and while having at least 5-10 percent chances in the forecast seems prudent at this point, anything that falls will be of minimal/if any impact.

Temps tomorrow will reach the mid 50s, lows in the mid 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 400 PM Wednesday .

A quasi-stationary cold front will be located south of the region on Friday, a weak wave of low pressure riding along it. The ECMWF, GFS, and NAM have all trended even further south with the associated precipitation compared to previous runs, so opted to take out slight chance POPs in the south (keeping them just below slight) at this time. Skies should remain mostly cloudy in southern zones during the day, however, with more breaks of sun farther north. High temperatures will be near normal, in the lower-to-mid-50s. On Friday night, as the cold front continues to push farther south, skies will clear, allowing temperatures to cool into the upper-20s to lower- 30s. Cool surface high pressure will move from the Great Lakes region SE across the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and Sunday, and dry WNW flow will prevail aloft. This will result in dry weather and mostly sunny skies for the weekend, with highs ranging from the mid- 40s to near 50. High pressure will be centered over the area on Sunday morning, allowing for calm winds and ideal radiational cooling conditions. Thus decreased forecast lows slightly to the lower-to-mid-20s.

The next low pressure system will approach from the west on Monday, but medium-range models differ somewhat on its evolution, with the 12z ECMWF more amplified and thus stronger and farther west with the low compared to the flatter and more progressive solution on the 12z GFS. Regardless, model consensus is good enough for precipitation to continue likely POPs across central NC on Monday and Monday night. Confidence is high that temperatures will be warm enough for only liquid precipitation. Rain chances will gradually lessen on Tuesday as the system drags a cold front through the area and drier air filters in. WPC QPF shows potential for a total of 1-2 inches on Monday and Tuesday, but where exactly the heaviest rain sets up will depend on how the low ultimately evolves which is still uncertain at this time. After a warm front moves through early Monday, highs ranging from the upper-40s to upper-50s and lows from the 30s to lower-40s are expected Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the 12z GFS keeps the cold front farther north compared to the ECMWF, with another surface low riding along it bringing precipitation to southern parts of the area. However, the ECMWF keeps us dry as do the vast majority of ECMWF and GFS ensembles, so just introduced slight chance POPs at this time. Highs in the mid-to-upper-40s are expected behind the cold front on Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 1128 AM Wednesday .

Clear skies across the area at the moment along with gusty northwest winds. Expect winds to remain breezy in the 15G25kt range through 22Z, then back off and become calm overnight. Meanwhile, increasing mid and high clouds will overspread the area overnight but conditions will remain VFR through 18Z Thursday.

Looking beyond 12Z Thu, VFR conditions likely into the weekend. Non- VFR weather possible early next week as a trough approaches from the Midwest.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Leins NEAR TERM . Leins SHORT TERM . Leins LONG TERM . Danco AVIATION . Leins


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi49 min 62°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 87 mi49 min WNW 12 G 17 59°F 53°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi75 minNNW 910.00 miFair60°F19°F20%1018.9 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi74 minNW 710.00 miFair58°F20°F23%1018.2 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi4.2 hrsNNW 12 G 1510.00 miFair56°F25°F30%1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMEB

Wind History from MEB (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:01 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:08 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:16 AM EST     1.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:32 PM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:03 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:37 PM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.30.30.50.70.91.11.11.110.90.80.70.60.60.70.80.911.11.110.9

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:01 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:12 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:14 AM EST     0.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:36 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:03 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:35 PM EST     0.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.30.20.30.40.60.70.90.90.90.80.70.60.50.50.50.50.60.70.80.90.90.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.