Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 3:08 PM   Moonset 3:44 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 956 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Rest of today - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers.Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. Showers.Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Mon night - NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 956 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A cold front will drop into the area today, increasing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. The front will stall offshore for the weekend keeping rain chances in the forecast. High pressure will build into the area next week with drying conditions.

FXUS62 KRAH 191433 CCA AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1030 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak backdoor front over northeast North Carolina will slowly lift back north as a warm front this afternoon. A cold front will cross the region late tonight into early Saturday, and then settle just to our south late Saturday. A wave of low pressure will track along the front Sunday into Monday, bringing unsettled conditions and cooler temperatures.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 1030 AM Friday...

...Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this afternoon and evening...

There has been little change in previous thinking with only minor adjustments to ongoing forecast. While confidence in the coverage and precise timing of the shower/storm chances is lower than usual, confidence is high that impacts will be localized/isolated in nature.

Complicating the forecast was last night's back-door cold frontal passage, which can be identified by the leading/western edge of a < 1000kft stratus layer that has advanced westward into the western Piedmont and western Sandhills. This shallow layer of cooler and drier air may delay the northward retreat of the aforementioned front to the north and the northward expansion/development of instability across the area, especially if we see any light precip/rain into the stable layer as the lead precip band moves east.

Speaking of a lead precip band, a band of pre-frontal showers, which is associated with a sheared vorticity axis moving through the area, has just traversed the mtns and will move east into the western Piedmont over the next few hours. Initially instability is absent, but as the warm front lifts north and as we get into peak afternoon heating, weak to moderate buoyancy, maximized generally south of HWY 64, should lead to an increase in convective coverage and intensity over central and eastern NC during the afternoon and evening.
Enhanced by pockets of dry air in the mid levels(owing to w-nwly flow aloft), favorable DCAPE central NC will make isolated wind damage the primary threat, followed by marginally severe hail.

Closely on the heels of the lead convection, another area of showers and storms accompanying the arrival of the cold front into the area will move in from the NW towards sunset and will progress across the area through 06z. Will also have to monitor these storms for severe potential but loss of heating and increasing BL CIN should result in weakening intensity and coverage, with largely dry weather expected after 1 or 2 AM.

Expect highs today to range from lower/mid 70s NE to mid/upper 80s SW, followed by upper 50s to mid 60s for lows.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM Friday...

The weekend will start out partly to mostly cloudy before becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy with slight rain chances easing in. The cold front will have pushed into our SE sections by Sat morning and will progress SSE, settling into N SC as low pressure drifts southward into the SC Midlands. A much cooler air mass will gradually build in, although the most dense air will initially be held up by the higher terrain, allowing for good afternoon mixing and highs that will be cooler but still a bit above normal, in the 70s with near 80 in the far S. Despite the westerly mid level flow on the S side of the broad trough, PW across the S and SE, near the surface front, will remain elevated, at or over 1" through Sat night, as the noticeably cooler air finally pours in from the NNW. While forcing for ascent is largely quite weak or even absent heading into Sat night, we will see slowly improving moist upglide across the south, up and over the low level frontal zone, resulting in a reinforcing of low level stability and groundward moistening of the column, necessitating low chances for light rain, mainly S of Hwy 64, starting late Sat going through Sat night. Lows from the upper 40s N to upper 50s S. -GIH

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 219 AM Friday...

Sunday: Flow aloft turns swly Sunday and Monday increasing low-level moisture advection into the southeast. Ensembles and deterministic guidance are in pretty good agreement at this point pinning a sfc cold front, instability, and the highest anomalous moisture along the coastal areas and offshore. Rain chances will still increase throughout the day Sunday (highest POPs still across our far southeastern zones) but primarily light to moderate stratiform rain is expected through Monday morning. Sfc flow will remain nnely, promoting a cool, wet, and breezy day with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. QPF ranges from a few tenths of an inch (N) to about a half of an inch (S).

Monday through Thursday: Any lingering rain Monday morning will pull off to our east by early afternoon. A few additional scattered showers may be possible Monday afternoon/evening with the passing of a strong vort max, but overall Monday should largely be dry. Tuesday will follow suit under nwly flow aloft. By Wednesday, a sheared vorticity feature will ride through the Mid-Atlantic. This may spawn a few scattered showers, but overall coverage should be minimal. Dry weather continues under nwly flow aloft on Thursday.

Temperatures Monday will remain cooler than normal be cool in the mid 60s. Temps will rise into the mid 70s Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 645 AM Friday...

INT/GSO: VFR conditions are likely to hold through the next 24 hours at INT/GSO, with clouds thickening early this morning and remaining largely broken through this evening, but with VFR bases. Isolated showers are possible from late morning through mid afternoon (15z- 19z) at INT/GSO, followed by a potential for isolated storms into early evening (19z-02z) as a cold front approaches. Shower/storm chances will end by mid evening, as the front pushes to the E.
Surface winds will be light, under 10 kts, starting from the NE before shifting to SE, then SW, then NW after nightfall behind the front.

RDU/RWI/FAY: These sites will see continued IFR to low-end MVFR stratus early this morning, lasting through much of the morning, until around 15z, with the longest duration at RWI and a slightly earlier end at RDU/FAY. VFR conditions are expected to return by 17z, but with thickening clouds. Isolated showers are possible starting in the mid afternoon (mostly after 18z), with a few thunderstorms possible from mid afternoon through late evening (mainly 20z to 03z), ending thereafter with dry conditions expected after 05z tonight. Another round of MVFR to IFR conditions is expected across the NE and E late tonight (starting around 05z)
through Sat morning, particularly affecting RWI/FAY. Surface winds will be light and variable, under 10 kts.

Looking beyond 12z Sat, after mostly dry weather Sat (except a slight rain chance at FAY) as the front settles just to our S, a wave of low pressure tracking along the front will bring a high chance of sub-VFR conditions and rain from Sun afternoon through early Mon. Rain chances may linger esp at FAY Mon night, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected Mon through Tue. Showers and storms are possible Wed ahead of a cold front. -GIH

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Conway
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Fri -- 12:48 AM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:56 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:02 PM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:24 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Grahamville
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Fri -- 01:47 AM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:00 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:00 PM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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