Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Red Springs, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:08PM Monday November 30, 2020 12:53 PM EST (17:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:27PMMoonset 7:13AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1031 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers and tstms likely late this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tue..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot, then 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1031 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A strong cold front will push off the coast around noon today. Gale force winds are possible both ahead of and behind the front. High pressure will build from the southwest Tuesday and linger through Friday, with colder, but gradually improving marine conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Springs, NC
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location: 34.83, -79.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 301100 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 600 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. An intensifying storm system will track across the eastern Carolinas this morning, move across the mid Atlantic and reach New York this evening. An associated warm front will lift across the eastern Carolinas this morning before a cold front sweeps east across the area this afternoon. Cold high pressure will build into Southeast and Carolinas through mid-week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 400 AM Monday .

. Wind Advisory issued for most of central NC excluding the Northwest Piedmont as a one to three hour surge of strong southwesterly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph translates northeast across central NC through early this afternoon .

A complex weather pattern was present across the Southeast early this morning with a deepening surface low centered across far northeast GA and southwestern NC. A series of boundaries extend across the region. A wedge front is apparent extending from south central VA southwest to just east of KGSO and KLEX to near KCLT. At 300 AM a light northeast wind along with a temperature and dewpoint of 49 were reported at KINT and KGSO with southeast winds and dew points near 60 apparent just 20 miles to the east and southeast. A warm front continues to advance north across the eastern Carolinas and with a southerly flow and dew points in the lower to mid 60s common place across the Sandhills, southern Coastal Plain and southern Coastal Region.

A large shield of rain and showers driven by isentropic lift associated with the lifting warm front and ahead of an impressive low level jet continues to shift northeast across the northern Piedmont and eastern NC into VA. South of this region, in the warm sector, the precipitation has become more scattered and showery and will continue through the morning hours ahead of an advancing cold front.

During the predawn through mid morning hours, the airmass in the warm sector will become weakly unstably with SBCAPE values climbing to around 500 J/KG, perhaps more from KRWI/KJNX/KMEB southeast. A limited severe weather threat is still expected from U.S. route 1 east from about 12Z to 18Z ahead of the approaching cold front. Strong shear could take advantage of shallow updrafts and result in some storm organization and a damaging wind threat with a tornado or two possible. The severe weather threat will be greatest east of I- 95. Temperatures today will be complicated and will peak early today in the west ahead of the front and the remain steady or fall during the afternoon. Muggy highs in the upper 60s to around 70 are expected in the east.

A strong southwesterly low level jet of 40-60 kts will surge across central and eastern NC this morning ahead of the advancing cold front. In the wake of the large rain shield and in the warm sector where some localized heating and a deepening of the surface mixed layer, the strong winds in the LLJ will mix down at times resulting in a short period of 1 to 3 hours of gusts up to 45 mph are possible. The cold front will move across the area as the LLJ exits, and a period of sub advisory criteria gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph will be experienced during the afternoon. A Wind Advisory was issued for much of central NC excluding the northwest Piedmont. -Blaes

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 420 AM Monday .

The surface cold front will be moving off the NC coast around or just before sunset with cold advection developing across central NC. A vigorous upper trough with H5 temperatures of -32 and an exiting jet of 105+ kts will move across the Carolinas overnight. Despite low level subsidence driven by cold advection, the upper trough will provide sufficient forcing for ascent along with low level lapse rates in excess of 8 deg C to produce a saturated layer between 900 and 800 mb which could result in a few showers late tonight into early Tuesday morning. The best area of saturation appears to slide east across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain between midnight and daybreak. Lows by daybreak tuesday will range in the lower to mid 30s.

Despite a good deal of sunshine, cold advection will keep highs on Tuesday in the 43 to 50 range. Lows Tuesday night will be the coldest of the season. With winds decoupling late across the west resulting in good radiational cooling, have lowered minimums into the 22 to 29 range with a couple of the typically colder spots perhaps even a few degrees colder. -Blaes

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 309 AM Monday .

Upper level ridging will build over the area by the middle of the week, resulting in mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry weather Wednesday and Thursday. A 1025mb surface ridge will move overhead during this time, resulting in some of the coldest minimum temperatures of the season so far. Morning lows will bottom out in the low to mid 20s Wednesday in the NW Piedmont and in the upper 20s across the southern Coastal Plain. Daytime highs will recover into the 50s but will remain below normal for early December.

Forecast confidence Friday into Saturday remains somewhat low, as there were substantial differences among the deterministic models and their ensemble counterparts leading up to this morning's 00Z runs. However today's 00Z GFS/GEFS and EC/ECENS are both in general agreement in showing a low diving south through the Plains, moving west of the Appalachian Mtns, and shearing out as it moves into the Great Lakes. Sensible weather impacts across central NC per this solution would be an increase in clouds and precip chances late Thursday night, rain on Friday, with clearing Friday night into Saturday. Ultimately this scenario isn't too terribly different from what was in the previous forecast and I only made very minor timing adjustments. Ensemble QPF looks to be on the order of a tenth to a quarter of an inch and hydro impacts do not look to be in the cards. Similarly, cold advection behind the departing low should not be strong enough or arrive in time to produce mixed precip.

Weak ridging should follow for the weekend with well below normal temperatures and partly cloudy skies.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 600 AM Monday .

A developing storm system was centered over far western NC early this morning with a warm front extending from the low to just south of the Triad and then into southern VA. In the Triad, north of the front, LIFR conditions with low CIGS and light northerly winds are noted early this morning and they will continue for the next few hours. The rest of central NC was located in the warm sector south of the front with better conditions, primarily MVFR with some IFR CIGS noted near the front. Low-level wind shear is still present across much of the area and it is expected through mid morning when mixing will decrease the shear values.

A cold front will advance east across central NC late this morning and afternoon resulting in an increased threat of showers and isolated thunderstorms with accompanying adverse aviation conditions. Outside of the showers and storms, aviation conditions will improve during the day with MVFR to VFR conditions expected across the area by mid afternoon. Winds will become south to southwesterly, increase and become very gusty during the 15Z to 19Z period with the highest winds of 35kts or more at RDU/FAY/RWI. Winds will decrease a bit and become westerly during the afternoon but remain gusty into the early evening and then decrease overnight. Generally fair weather conditions with BKN VFR CIGS are expected for much of the tonight although a brief shower is possible after midnight across the south, possibly impacting the KRWI terminal.

Outlook . Fair weather is expected through mid week with VFR conditions. Some gusty winds up to 20kts are possible on Tuesday afternoon. The next chance of adverse aviation conditions arrives on Friday as a storm system brings a chance of rain. -Blaes

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088- 089.

SYNOPSIS . Blaes NEAR TERM . Blaes SHORT TERM . Blaes LONG TERM . DL AVIATION . Blaes


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 83 mi54 min 68°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 87 mi54 min SSW 30 G 35 71°F 66°F1000.2 hPa (-3.1)

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC9 mi62 minWSW 22 G 3210.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy71°F53°F53%999.6 hPa
Fayetteville, Fayetteville Regional Airport, NC21 mi61 minSW 20 G 355.00 miLight Rain and Breezy67°F61°F81%997.8 hPa
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC21 mi58 minWSW 15 G 2410.00 miA Few Clouds69°F54°F59%1000.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMEB

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Last 24hrE7E9E6E6NE6NE5NE6NE6E3NE5SE5SE10S12
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1 day ago3CalmN3NE3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmN3N3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE5E3E3E5E4E6
2 days agoW8NW9W3W8W4W4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4W3W3CalmN5N7NE6SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:41 AM EST     1.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:53 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:00 PM EST     1.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:29 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.21.21.10.90.70.40.20.10.30.60.91.21.41.51.41.310.80.50.40.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:39 AM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:57 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:58 PM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:33 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.70.9110.90.70.50.30.20.10.20.40.711.11.21.110.80.60.40.30.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.