Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, AL

NEAR TERM
(Today)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Early morning analysis shows a line of showers and thunderstorms upstream from our area in advance of a cold front making its way eastward across the mid-Miss Valley. While showers/storms were present just along the front, an area of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms were behind the sfc front. Overall, the recent suite of numerical guidance has shown a good handle on convective characteristics, and the timing with the front and line of convection. The latest data suggests the line may experience some continued weakening during the early morning, but reinvigoration is anticipated with ample heating later this afternoon. The area of convection is expected to begin to move into NW Alabama around noon, and reach eastern portions of the area late in the afternoon. Instability parameters are not overly impressive, with weakening lapse rates following an eroding mid-level cap, and generally long/skinny CAPE profiles. Sfc temps perhaps reaching the low/mid 80s and TDs in the low 60s will yield SFC/MU CAPES generally ~600 J/kg or lower. Deep layer shear may reach ~50-55 kts post-erosion of the mid-lvl cap, but will be brief just along/ahead of the front. Given the setup, a few strong storms could result producing strong wind gusts, but the threat for any severe weather looks negligible at this time.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 921 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A rather strong cold front will continue to surge southeastward through our forecast area tomorrow evening, with the risk for thunderstorms likely to end across our southeastern zones by 2Z.
However, with broad scale ascent expected to strengthen with the approach of a mid-level trough, conditions will remain favorable for light postfrontal rain (that should gradually end from NW-to- SE beginning late Saturday evening). Storm total rainfall amounts appear as if they will range from 0.75-1"(NW) to 0.25-0.5" (SE), although it is certainly possible that some locations will receive more (while a few locations may unfortunately receive less).
Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will quickly advect a cooler/drier, continental airmass into the region by sunrise on Sunday, with lows expected to be in the m-u 40s.

Dry northwest flow aloft will exist across the region from Sunday through Monday night, but should weaken by the end of the short term period as a low amplitude ridge travels eastward from the southern Rockies into the Lower MS Valley. Moderately strong CAA will continue throughout the day on Sunday, yielding highs ranging from the lower 60s atop the Cumberland Plateau to the m-u 60s in the valley. As surface high pressure builds eastward into the Mid- South region Sunday afternoon, winds will diminish, and this along with mostly clear skies will support cool overnight lows Monday morning (l-m 40s). Winds will remain light/variable on Monday and Monday night with high pressure centered to our northeast, and a gradual warming trend is anticipated as highs rebound into the l-m 70s Monday.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 921 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Extended range solutions from the global models suggest that a general absence of synoptic scale forcing for ascent will exist for much of the extended period, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing southeastward from the southern Plains into the eastern Gulf (Tuesday-Wednesday night) will be followed by mid- level height rises. This, along with lingering influences from a weakening dome of high pressure (centered off the southeastern Atlantic Coast), will result in dry weather conditions for the majority of the extended period. There are some indications that showers and a perhaps a few thunderstorms may return to western portions of the forecast area Friday afternoon in advance of a surface low over the northern Plains and cold front dropping southeastward into the Mid-MS Valley. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty regarding this scenario, and even if a few storms manage to develop, both shear and instability would favor weak/unorganized convection at this time. Temperatures will continue to increase, with highs returning to the l-m 80s (Wednesday-Friday), and overnight lows rising into the m-u 50s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions are likely to persist at KHSV and KMSL TAF sites through at least 18Z. However, deteriorating conditions are expected to begin by ~22-00Z as a cdfnt and associated line of SHRA with isold/sctd embedded TSRA crosses into the area.
Prevailing MVFR ceilings/vis are anticipated with the line of SHRA, but embedded TSRA may bring lower IFR vis/ceilings (~30% probability). Winds will veer SWRLY to NRLY with the frontal passage, with gusts ~20kts (potentially higher with any TSRA).
Conditions expected to improve to VFR at KMSL by the end of the period although -SHRA/RA may remain, while VFR expected at KHSV just after TAF end time.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.