Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, AL
July 3, 2024 12:45 AM CDT (05:45 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:12 AM Moonset 6:31 PM |
Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
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FXUS64 KHUN 030540 AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 850 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Surface analysis this evening shows our front from the previous day stalled out over south AL and GA. Surface ridging has built back in north of the boundary, helping to maintain our SSE flow regime. Benign conditions expected overnight with temperatures bottoming out in the low/mid 70s. Some low level stratus will attempt to settle over the area after sunrise but will mix out by the early afternoon, as the heat sets in.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
During the period from Wednesday-Wednesday night, global models depict a broad subtropical ridge in the mid-levels to extend from the northwest Gulf Coast to the southeastern Atlantic Coast.
Although the amplitude of the ridge will likely begin to decrease as early as tonight in response to the northeastward motion of the shortwave trough (discussed above), synoptic scale subsidence provided by the anticyclone will result in a pronounced capping inversion that should remain intact for much of the period. In the low-levels, a ridge axis is predicted to lie across the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will translate to lighter S-SW flow across our region to the south of a cold front that will drift southeastward before stalling north of the OH River. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible (mainly across the southwestern portion of the CWFA) tomorrow afternoon as strong warming of the increasingly moist boundary layer is anticipated after morning stratus clouds erode, with a low probability for convection along and north of the AL-TN border on Wednesday night (perhaps initiated by outflow from extensive frontal convection to our northwest). High temperatures are expected to return to the l-m 90s for most of the region tomorrow, and this coupled with dewpoints in the l-m 70s (highest in the west) will yield apparent temps near or slightly in excess of Heat Advisory criteria for all but the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern Middle TN.
The general orientation and strength of the subtropical ridge is not predicted to change much during the Thursday-Thursday night timeframe. However, a lower-latitude shortwave trough digging southeastward across the northern Plains will likely begin to initiate subtle height falls across our region, which should erode the subsidence inversion in conjunction with strong heating of the surface layer. This alone will support a slightly higher coverage of afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday, but northern portions of the CWFA may also be clipped by the remnants of an MCS that will initiate across NE/KS Wednesday evening and spread east- southeastward reaching the southern Appalachians Thursday.
Although afternoon storms will diminish in coverage and intensity during the evening, a second MCS is predicted to evolve across eastern KS Thursday afternoon as another surface low begins to lift northeastward through the central Plains, and this feature may reach northwestern portions of the TN Valley prior to sunrise Friday. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect on Thursday due to similar temperatures/dewpoints and HI values once again in the 102-108F range for most of the region.
By Friday-Friday night, the subtropical ridge will become suppressed to the south/east of the region (along the southeastern Atlantic Coast), as the shortwave trough noted in the paragraph above begins to lift northeastward into the Great Lakes. This will support a more favorable environment for convection, with several bands/clusters of showers and thunderstorms expected to spread eastward across the warm/moist sector to the southeast of a slow- moving cold front. West-southwesterly flow aloft will increase to 20-25 knots supporting faster storm motions, and POPs have been increased to 70-80% on Friday and Friday night. Although the current forecast depicts HI values that warrant continuation of the Heat Advisory through Friday afternoon, this portion of the forecast is highly uncertain due to potential impacts from clouds/precipitation early in the day.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The boundary will slowly sag south through the area into central Alabama by Saturday. However, since it will remain in the vicinity of the area medium chances for showers/storms (40-60%) will remain in the forecast for Saturday. Cloud cover will help to keep temperatures just a few degrees lower, likely keeping heat indices below Advisory criteria. With the boundary to our south Sunday and Monday, much lower chances for showers/storms are forecast (10-20%) with highs remaining near normal in the lower 90s. The combination of these lower temperatures and dewpoints should keep peak heat index values below 100 degrees through Monday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period with southerly winds and FEW/SCT decks of Cu developing later in the day.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016.
TN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 850 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Surface analysis this evening shows our front from the previous day stalled out over south AL and GA. Surface ridging has built back in north of the boundary, helping to maintain our SSE flow regime. Benign conditions expected overnight with temperatures bottoming out in the low/mid 70s. Some low level stratus will attempt to settle over the area after sunrise but will mix out by the early afternoon, as the heat sets in.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
During the period from Wednesday-Wednesday night, global models depict a broad subtropical ridge in the mid-levels to extend from the northwest Gulf Coast to the southeastern Atlantic Coast.
Although the amplitude of the ridge will likely begin to decrease as early as tonight in response to the northeastward motion of the shortwave trough (discussed above), synoptic scale subsidence provided by the anticyclone will result in a pronounced capping inversion that should remain intact for much of the period. In the low-levels, a ridge axis is predicted to lie across the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will translate to lighter S-SW flow across our region to the south of a cold front that will drift southeastward before stalling north of the OH River. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible (mainly across the southwestern portion of the CWFA) tomorrow afternoon as strong warming of the increasingly moist boundary layer is anticipated after morning stratus clouds erode, with a low probability for convection along and north of the AL-TN border on Wednesday night (perhaps initiated by outflow from extensive frontal convection to our northwest). High temperatures are expected to return to the l-m 90s for most of the region tomorrow, and this coupled with dewpoints in the l-m 70s (highest in the west) will yield apparent temps near or slightly in excess of Heat Advisory criteria for all but the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern Middle TN.
The general orientation and strength of the subtropical ridge is not predicted to change much during the Thursday-Thursday night timeframe. However, a lower-latitude shortwave trough digging southeastward across the northern Plains will likely begin to initiate subtle height falls across our region, which should erode the subsidence inversion in conjunction with strong heating of the surface layer. This alone will support a slightly higher coverage of afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday, but northern portions of the CWFA may also be clipped by the remnants of an MCS that will initiate across NE/KS Wednesday evening and spread east- southeastward reaching the southern Appalachians Thursday.
Although afternoon storms will diminish in coverage and intensity during the evening, a second MCS is predicted to evolve across eastern KS Thursday afternoon as another surface low begins to lift northeastward through the central Plains, and this feature may reach northwestern portions of the TN Valley prior to sunrise Friday. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect on Thursday due to similar temperatures/dewpoints and HI values once again in the 102-108F range for most of the region.
By Friday-Friday night, the subtropical ridge will become suppressed to the south/east of the region (along the southeastern Atlantic Coast), as the shortwave trough noted in the paragraph above begins to lift northeastward into the Great Lakes. This will support a more favorable environment for convection, with several bands/clusters of showers and thunderstorms expected to spread eastward across the warm/moist sector to the southeast of a slow- moving cold front. West-southwesterly flow aloft will increase to 20-25 knots supporting faster storm motions, and POPs have been increased to 70-80% on Friday and Friday night. Although the current forecast depicts HI values that warrant continuation of the Heat Advisory through Friday afternoon, this portion of the forecast is highly uncertain due to potential impacts from clouds/precipitation early in the day.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The boundary will slowly sag south through the area into central Alabama by Saturday. However, since it will remain in the vicinity of the area medium chances for showers/storms (40-60%) will remain in the forecast for Saturday. Cloud cover will help to keep temperatures just a few degrees lower, likely keeping heat indices below Advisory criteria. With the boundary to our south Sunday and Monday, much lower chances for showers/storms are forecast (10-20%) with highs remaining near normal in the lower 90s. The combination of these lower temperatures and dewpoints should keep peak heat index values below 100 degrees through Monday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period with southerly winds and FEW/SCT decks of Cu developing later in the day.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016.
TN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMSL
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSL
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSL
Wind History graph: MSL
(wind in knots)
Northern Alabama,
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