Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, AL

NEAR TERM
(Today)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Early morning satellite shows thinning mid level stratus with a few passing high cirrus and so far no fog development. Will still not rule out some patchy fog as some observations show current dewpoint depressions near 2 degrees or less. The only real changes to the forecast for today were to account for the front being positioned farther south which brought our rain chances to less than 10%. Otherwise the previous forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion: Areas south of the Tennessee River have a low chance (<10%) of showers/storms today; however, these probabilities really depend on how far south the front moves. If it only makes it just south of Cullman County, the probability of shower/storm activity will be higher compared to if the front pushes farther south. Even so, with northwest flow taking hold, a cooler airmass will be advected into the region and this will lead to highs topping out in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. It will also be a bit drier too, so enjoy the less muggy and cooler weather while it lasts!

SHORT TERM
(Monday Night through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The aforementioned surface front will meander generally over central Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia through midweek. This will result in very low to low chances of showers and storms south of the Tennessee River Monday night through Tuesday night. While bulk shear values shown by models hover between 30-35 knots Tuesday afternoon, instability will be the question when it comes to thunderstorm development due to the cooler and a bit drier airmass in place. Overall shower/storm chances then increase a bit on Wednesday to 20-40% during the day. These look to be more diurnally driven, especially with a stalled front to our south and a cold front over the central CONUS and Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. Even with ample instability, bulk shear values shown by guidance on Wednesday are around 20 knots. Thus, no severe weather is anticipated for our area Monday night through Wednesday night.

Lows Monday night are forecast to be much cooler than we've seen recently, with values in the upper 50s to lower 60s! Tuesday will be another mild day, with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations. Temperatures then begin to moderate by midweek, with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday and lows in the lower to mid 70s Wednesday night.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

As an upper level low shifts eastward into the Great Lakes region, an upper level trough and subsequent cold front drop down into the Ohio River Valley and toward the TN Valley. Ahead of this front, the area will be primed with available moisture as southerly flow brings PWATs into the 1.9-2.1" range (above the 90th percentile per BMX and OHX sounding climatology).
Additionally, CAPE will yield plenty of available instability with values reaching around 1500-2000 J/kg during Thursday afternoon.
However, shear remains relatively weak. We will be watching the evolution and timing of this cold front as whether it approaches during the peak afternoon heating versus overnight when there is less available instability will make a large difference in potential threats on the table for us. No matter the details, there remains high chances (70-90%) of thunderstorms moving through the area sometime Thursday afternoon into Friday. This will be our primary feature to watch in the long term as it could bring another flash flood threat to the area. Another threat to watch on Thursday will be the heat as highs reach the mid 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100. We will be monitoring how rain chances and accompanying cloud cover affect these temperatures, however, encourage everyone to practice heat safety to prevent heat related illness.

Post-frontal conditions through the first half of the weekend should be mostly dry as sfc high pressure filters in from the west with high temperatures capped in the low to mid 80s. Rainfall chances (20-40%) return on Sunday as the aforementioned frontal boundary shifts back northward and stalls over Central AL. If you have outdoor interests this weekend, we encourage you to check back in for updates as we progress through the week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with a low chance of fog development in the early morning hours. Amendments may be needed if fog begins to impact either terminal.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.