Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, AL

NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A line of broken to scattered mid-level clouds have been lingering across northwest AL all day with mainly sunny skies elsewhere. This hasn't prevented temps from warming up into the upper 70s to lower 80s thanks to WAA from breezy southwesterly winds. Gusts have been reaching 15-20kts, but keeping below 25kts (a Red Flag Warning threshold). RH values are also remaining out of RFW criteria , generally around 30%. Regardless, with conditions so dry across the TN Valley, ensure you are fire smart and caution continues to be emphasized. Gusts will slack after sunset and under a mostly clear skies, temps will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Near record warmth is forecast through the short term period with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday and Thursday.
These temperatures are around 10 degrees above climatological normals for this time of year. Locally, not much change is in store as high pressure along the Southeast coast continues to be the main factor in our local weather pattern. One thing to watch is on Thursday as a shortwave riding along the trough to our west will push eastward towards the Tennessee River Valley. This will bring a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. Unfortunately, overall rain amounts will remain quite low and will not put much of a dent into our deficit this Spring.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

The extended forecast period will begin with a continuation of warm/dry conditions, as a 500-mb ridge builds northeastward in the wake of a low amplitude shortwave trough and weak surface low tracking eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. With only a few high-based cumulus anticipated beneath a strengthening mid- level inversion and light SSW flow in the low-levels, most valley locations will experience highs in the u80s-l90s. Low-level flow will begin to increase on Friday evening as a deepening vort max (embedded within the base of a broader trough extending from southern Canada into the northern Plains) begins to eject northeastward into the MO Valley, resulting in development of a frontal wave that will lift northeastward from KS into WI by 12Z Saturday. Latest model guidance suggests that both the mid-level wave and surface low will undergo substantial intensification as they progress further northeastward into eastern OT/western QC by 12Z Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the length of the trailing cold front and perhaps a prefrontal surface trough (from IL/IN into the northwestern Gulf Coast) Saturday afternoon.

As the cold front begins to overtake the surface trough across the TN Valley Saturday evening, chances for much needed rainfall will increase across our forecast area, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts (ranging from around 0.05-0.10" as a worst case scenario to 0.5-0.75" as a best case scenario). This is likely due to the combination of substantial amount of lingering CINH noted in forecast soundings and a narrow plume of modified Gulf moisture which will only overspread the entire region immediately in advance of the front.
Should the low/mid-level thermodynamic profile improve, rainfall amounts would likely be closer to the best case scenario, and a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds would also be probable given sufficiently strong WSW flow aloft (45-55 knots)
for updraft organization. Regardless, the front appears as if it will be exiting our region early Sunday morning, with any lingering precipitation ending in our southeastern zones around 12Z Sunday. A cooler/drier continental airmass will overspread the region for the remainder of the period, featuring highs in the u60s-l70s Sunday and overnight lows in the l-m 40s Monday morning.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at KHSV and KMSL. Southwesterly gusts will slack shortly after sunset but they will pick back up to 15kts after sunrise tomorrow.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.