Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, AL
 | Sunrise 5:44 AM Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 11:51 PM Moonset 8:25 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, AL
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FXUS64 KHUN 161957 AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 257 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Both low and mid cloud cover has thinned significantly over the last few hours east of the I-65 corridor. Further west, thicker mid/high cloud cover has redeveloped. Most locations have reached the lower to mid 80s across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Still could see an upper 80 degree high near the I-65 corridor and mid 80s further east.
A very humid and unstable airmass (3000 to 4000 J/KG) is in place. However, The good news is that there have been very little signs of convective development a few models were hinting could happen around 4 PM. The cap in place aloft and the drier air between 850 mb and 700 mb seen in 7 AM Birmingham sounding, looks like they will hold off any convection this afternoon. Both satellite and radar trends seem to support this as well.
Models still show the main upper level forcing sagging southeast into southern middle Tennessee and NW Alabama between 10 PM and 1 AM ahead of an approaching cold front. Enough MUCAPE or SBCAPE (1000 - 2000 J/KG) lingers ahead of the front into the overnight hours. However, strong shear continues to be shown ahead of the front and 0-3 km helicity climbs to between 200 and 350 m2/s2 as the best forcing moves into the area ahead of and with the front.
Expect there could be some embedded supercells (producing large hail initially) that move into the area. Still thinking this will form into a more widespread damaging wind threat with a few tornadoes possible. The high low level moisture and cloudy conditions tonight should keep lows very warm, only dropping into the 65 to 70 degree range in most areas.
Overall timing of convective initiation hasn't changed much.
1. Franklin (AL) NW Lincoln County (TN) - 10 PM to 2 AM 2. SW Lawrence County (AL) to Sewanee (TN) - Midnight to 3 AM 3. SE Cullman County (AL) to Fort Payne (AL) - 2 AM to 5 AM
If some convection does eventually form 4 PM to 8 PM (as those few models were hinting), supercells and a larger hail/stronger tornado threat could exist during that period. At this time, that is not expected to occur.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Much drier air moves southeast into the area just after daybreak on Saturday between 8 or 9 AM. The front should be far enough south to keep rain chances out of the forecast by then. Highs should reach the mid to upper 80s again across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee on Saturday. Most guidance places the front somewhere through central Alabama when it stalls. However, during the late afternoon/early evening hours, several models move this front northward into northwestern Alabama and then further northeast overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening should give way to more widespread activity overnight.
Strong shear pushes back into the area and with very moist low level moisture moving back into the area behind the front, instability will increase enough to warrant at least a low severe threat. Main threats would be damaging winds and up to one inch hail. High dewpoints and cloudy conditions tonight should keep lows very warm, only dropping into the 65 to 70 degree range in most areas.
As the front stalls near the southern portion of the forecast area, cloud conditions and additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on and off through the day into the early evening hours on Sunday. Expect cooler conditions as well with highs only climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Again with strong shear over the area and enough instability in place, a few strong to marginally severe storms could occur.
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Luckily, it looks like we see a break in high rain/thunder chances Sunday night into Monday, as the front really pushes to the north as a stronger warm front. At the same time, upper level ridging builds over the area. Locations north of the Tennessee River could still see scattered showers and thunderstorms, possibly a few again strong to marginally severe. Highs will likely be similar (though current guidance may be a tad too low), reaching the mid to upper 80s. Monday night will still be very humid with lows dropping into the mid to upper 60s.
A stronger storm system over the Rockies develops and moves slowly east Monday night into Tuesday. The strength of the upper level ridging and the northward placement of its associated warm front should keep any shower or thunderstorm activity north of the area Monday night. However, on Tuesday into Tuesday night, it looks like higher rain and thunderstorm chances move back into the region. Strong shear and instability will return ahead of that system. A bit more helicity is hinted at with model guidance. So tornadoes may be more of a threat with this system. However, it is still several days out, so alot can change. Again colder air moves into behind this system, towards the end of next week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through 04Z at KMSL and 06Z at KHSV. Expect LLWS to pick up to around 40 knots around 00Z at KMSL and 01Z at KHSV from 220 degrees. Around 04Z at KMSL and 06Z at KHSV, expected -TSRA to impact the terminals at times as convection develops and moves into the terminals. This will likely produce MVFR conditions primarily. However, included a tempo group for TSRA and IFR VSBYS or CIGS. LLWS should pick up as well to between 45 and 50 knots between roughly 06Z and 09Z.
Some scattered (30 percent) -TSRA could linger from 09Z through 12Z at times, but only included a PROB30 due to the limited coverage of convection expected. MVFR CIGS will likely continue during that time and IFR CIGs /VSBYS could occur if that activity moves directly over either terminal.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 257 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Both low and mid cloud cover has thinned significantly over the last few hours east of the I-65 corridor. Further west, thicker mid/high cloud cover has redeveloped. Most locations have reached the lower to mid 80s across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Still could see an upper 80 degree high near the I-65 corridor and mid 80s further east.
A very humid and unstable airmass (3000 to 4000 J/KG) is in place. However, The good news is that there have been very little signs of convective development a few models were hinting could happen around 4 PM. The cap in place aloft and the drier air between 850 mb and 700 mb seen in 7 AM Birmingham sounding, looks like they will hold off any convection this afternoon. Both satellite and radar trends seem to support this as well.
Models still show the main upper level forcing sagging southeast into southern middle Tennessee and NW Alabama between 10 PM and 1 AM ahead of an approaching cold front. Enough MUCAPE or SBCAPE (1000 - 2000 J/KG) lingers ahead of the front into the overnight hours. However, strong shear continues to be shown ahead of the front and 0-3 km helicity climbs to between 200 and 350 m2/s2 as the best forcing moves into the area ahead of and with the front.
Expect there could be some embedded supercells (producing large hail initially) that move into the area. Still thinking this will form into a more widespread damaging wind threat with a few tornadoes possible. The high low level moisture and cloudy conditions tonight should keep lows very warm, only dropping into the 65 to 70 degree range in most areas.
Overall timing of convective initiation hasn't changed much.
1. Franklin (AL) NW Lincoln County (TN) - 10 PM to 2 AM 2. SW Lawrence County (AL) to Sewanee (TN) - Midnight to 3 AM 3. SE Cullman County (AL) to Fort Payne (AL) - 2 AM to 5 AM
If some convection does eventually form 4 PM to 8 PM (as those few models were hinting), supercells and a larger hail/stronger tornado threat could exist during that period. At this time, that is not expected to occur.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Much drier air moves southeast into the area just after daybreak on Saturday between 8 or 9 AM. The front should be far enough south to keep rain chances out of the forecast by then. Highs should reach the mid to upper 80s again across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee on Saturday. Most guidance places the front somewhere through central Alabama when it stalls. However, during the late afternoon/early evening hours, several models move this front northward into northwestern Alabama and then further northeast overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening should give way to more widespread activity overnight.
Strong shear pushes back into the area and with very moist low level moisture moving back into the area behind the front, instability will increase enough to warrant at least a low severe threat. Main threats would be damaging winds and up to one inch hail. High dewpoints and cloudy conditions tonight should keep lows very warm, only dropping into the 65 to 70 degree range in most areas.
As the front stalls near the southern portion of the forecast area, cloud conditions and additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on and off through the day into the early evening hours on Sunday. Expect cooler conditions as well with highs only climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Again with strong shear over the area and enough instability in place, a few strong to marginally severe storms could occur.
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Luckily, it looks like we see a break in high rain/thunder chances Sunday night into Monday, as the front really pushes to the north as a stronger warm front. At the same time, upper level ridging builds over the area. Locations north of the Tennessee River could still see scattered showers and thunderstorms, possibly a few again strong to marginally severe. Highs will likely be similar (though current guidance may be a tad too low), reaching the mid to upper 80s. Monday night will still be very humid with lows dropping into the mid to upper 60s.
A stronger storm system over the Rockies develops and moves slowly east Monday night into Tuesday. The strength of the upper level ridging and the northward placement of its associated warm front should keep any shower or thunderstorm activity north of the area Monday night. However, on Tuesday into Tuesday night, it looks like higher rain and thunderstorm chances move back into the region. Strong shear and instability will return ahead of that system. A bit more helicity is hinted at with model guidance. So tornadoes may be more of a threat with this system. However, it is still several days out, so alot can change. Again colder air moves into behind this system, towards the end of next week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through 04Z at KMSL and 06Z at KHSV. Expect LLWS to pick up to around 40 knots around 00Z at KMSL and 01Z at KHSV from 220 degrees. Around 04Z at KMSL and 06Z at KHSV, expected -TSRA to impact the terminals at times as convection develops and moves into the terminals. This will likely produce MVFR conditions primarily. However, included a tempo group for TSRA and IFR VSBYS or CIGS. LLWS should pick up as well to between 45 and 50 knots between roughly 06Z and 09Z.
Some scattered (30 percent) -TSRA could linger from 09Z through 12Z at times, but only included a PROB30 due to the limited coverage of convection expected. MVFR CIGS will likely continue during that time and IFR CIGs /VSBYS could occur if that activity moves directly over either terminal.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMSL
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMSL
Wind History Graph: MSL
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Midwest
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