Friday, August23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, AL

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Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:30PM Friday August 23, 2019 9:25 AM CDT (14:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:36PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, AL
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location: 34.83, -87.67     debug

Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
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Fxus64 khun 231407
area forecast discussion
national weather service huntsville al
907 am cdt Fri aug 23 2019

Near term (rest of today)
issued at 907 am cdt Fri aug 23 2019
a quiet morning so far across the valley, with the only nearby
activity being a decaying cluster of thunderstorms currently
tracking northeast along a frontal boundary draped across the oh
river valley, and a few thunderstorms are tracking east through
northwest georgia. None of this expected to impact the tn valley,
though, and there is a good chance we stay dry through the morning
hours. The aforementioned frontal boundary is eventually expected to
stall in the tn river valley vicinity later this weekend, but will
likely not be a factor in today's weather.

Today's shower and storm activity looks to be more diurnally driven,
and scattered in nature as sufficient boundary layer moisture remains
in place over the southeastern conus. Surface dew point temps will
range from the low to mid 70s, and increasing cloud cover throughout
the day should keep high temperatures in the upper 80s. Expect the
majority of shower and thunderstorm activity to occur during the mid
afternoon to early evening hours, and generally suppress after
sunset. While severe thunderstorms are not expected today, gusty
winds to 40 mph, frequent lightning, and brief heavy downpours will
be possible with any stronger storms that form, and will pose a
hazard to those with outdoor plans.

Short term (tonight through Sunday night)
issued at 339 am cdt Fri aug 23 2019
the weak cold front will progress into southern middle tennessee
tonight, which may help fuel some nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms. However, with loss of daytime heating, coverage is
expected to be sparse. Broken to overcast cloud cover is expected to
persist overnight, and the resultant insulation will keep overnight
low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

As the front pushes into northern alabama tomorrow, it will stall
over our area. Showers and thunderstorms will once again develop in
the early afternoon. Moisture convergence will raise pws to 2", which
will cause any storms that develop to be efficient rainfall
producers. Storm motion parallel to the stalled boundary will set up
the potential for training thunderstorms, which may lead to localized
flash flooding. Limited shear will inhibit the severe potential, but
wet downbursts microbursts will be possible with hydrometeor loading
and the "classic" long, skinny CAPE profile.

Tomorrow night, the boundary will push southward as cad sets up to
our east over the mid atlantic. Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave
will dig from the northern plains into the mid mississippi valley,
again providing forcing across the boundary for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night. Although the most likely time
period for showers and thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and
evening, there will still be scattered convection overnight. Mild
temperatures continue throughout the short term period, with high
temperatures dropping from the mid 80s on Saturday down to the low
80s on Sunday. Overnight lows will remain around 70 each night.

Long term (Monday through Thursday)
issued at 339 am cdt Fri aug 23 2019
by Monday morning, there is good model consensus that a mid upr
trough will be poised just to the west of the area. Moisture
advection and enhanced lift downstream from the trough across our
area will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms.

Overall dynamic forcing and instability suggests numerous showers and
thunderstorms are possible and likely pops were carried for the
afternoon during peak heating as the trough axis passes. Marginally
steep lapse rates and fcst MLCAPE values ~1500-2000 j kg suggest
some strong wind gusts are possible, but the threat for severe
weather appears rather small at this time with limited shear present.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely diminish with the loss
of daytime heating as the trough passes the area Monday night, but a
broad long wave trough will be taking shape in the upper midwest
late Monday night into Tuesday. Frontogenesis will take shape in the
great plains, and the latest suite of 00z guidance brings this cold
front into the tn valley region by late Tuesday. The details with
respect to the front at this time still need to be resolved as there
are lingering discrepancies among timing. Similarly, run-to-run
consistency among models is still relatively weak and the latest 00z
guidance appears to have backed off a bit with the degree of dry air
advection. Nevertheless, it does appear that the cold front will at
least cross into the area on Tuesday with an associated sfc
convergence axis and wind shift. Enhanced lift along ahead of the
front will lead to showers and thunderstorms once again on Tuesday
afternoon evening (pending timing of course).

The core of the drier continental air mass may not really begin to
filter into the area until later on Wednesday or especially by
Thursday. Some of the operational 00z guidance (especially ecmwf)
suggests 50s dew points are possible, but due to the lack of
consistency and some question regarding the degree of dry air
advection here, forecast dew points for now were left in the 60s.

The broad long wave pattern continues to favor ridging in the west
conus, with troughing in the great lakes to NE during the latter part
of next week. Near zonal flow in the tn valley at the base of the
long wave trough indicates the region may be located within a region
of increased baroclinicity and low-level convergence. This would lead
to an unsettled pattern, but the location of the sfc front still
remains to be resolved.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 640 am cdt Fri aug 23 2019
a weakening frontal boundary will draw closer to the area today,
instigating shower and thunderstorm development. Chances appear
better in eastern portions of the area, closer to the khsv terminal
than kmsl. Prevailing shra was carried in the khsv TAF between 20-02z,
but lower expected coverage of tsra warrants a prob30 between
21-01z. After 02z,VFR conditions are expected. Lesser coverage of
shra tsra activity is expected in NW al, so prob30 was used to
address threat of tsra at kmsl. Due to the convective nature of
expected precipitation, and lack of certainty, updates may be needed
to tafs as shra tsra evolve today. Precip cores could reduce visby
briefly to ifr if a heavy cell impacts one of the TAF sites.

Hun watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Tn... None.

Near term... 25
short term... 30
long term... Kdw
aviation... Kdw
for more information please visit our website
at weather.Gov huntsville.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muscle Shoals, North West Alabama Regional Airport, AL6 mi2.5 hrsSE 410.00 miFair74°F72°F94%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSL

Wind History from MSL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----SW7W9SW8W7W10W6
1 day agoS6SW75S44--CalmN3CalmSW6CalmCalm----SW4----------CalmE3S4SW7
2 days agoCalm343--Calm----NW5N3Calm----S6------------CalmSE3----

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Huntsville, AL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Alabama
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