Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:27 PM Moonrise 3:43 PM   Moonset 4:18 AM

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FXUS64 KHUN 191401 AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 901 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New NEAR TERM

NEAR TERM
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 901 CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A cluster of prefrontal showers with embedded thunder continues to push southeastward into central Alabama. This area which produced a severe thunderstorm this morning, continues to weaken. Cullman County could get clipped on the southern extent of the county by the remaining thunderstorm in this cluster but severe thresholds look unlikely. Attention will then turn to a second round of activity that is expected to initialize along a sfc cold front that is currently entering our far western zones once the atmosphere destabilizes. Showers should begin to pop along this boundary around noon for our western counties with higher chances for storms from Huntsville south and east as the front continues eastward interacting with an area of 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE.
Shear values are not impressive today but with sufficient instability and decent mid-level lapse rates expecting strong wind gusts, brief heavy downpours, and marginally severe hail to be the main concerns with storms that develop this afternoon. Timing for storms looks to be between 2 PM-6 PM this evening. Chances for precip will exit as cold front exits to the southeast this evening. High temps will top out in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon with dewpoints in the 60s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The cold front is forecast to push through the TN Valley fully this evening as it tracks toward the Gulf Coast. Despite drier mid-level air surging in behind the front, some lower level moisture will linger through tonight. Dew points in the 40s move in Saturday morning, but before then, the forecast will need to keep track of some isentropic upglide that could lead to lingering drizzle overnight. Zonal flow persists aloft and weak surface high pressure starts seeping from Canada down to the southern Plains. Just ahead of this surface high, a weak upper-level shortwave trough will traverse the Southern US states. Another round of showers with a few thunderstorms (40-60% chance) will move into the area Saturday afternoon and exit the region Sunday afternoon.

While some cold air advection behind the front will cause high temperatures on Saturday to peak in the mid 60s to low 70s, some areas may struggle to get above 60 on Sunday! Overnight lows drop to the 40s Saturday night and then potentially the upper 30s Sunday night as the modified Canadian air mass settles over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

For how volatile late-April can be for our area, next week looks pretty pleasant, relatively speaking. Surface high pressure will keep higher rain chances at bay and high temperatures in the mid-70s. A few things to monitor will be a shortwave trough digging into the Great Lakes region with an attendant surface low that may drag a cold front into the South. For now, low rain chances (20-30%) are in the forecast for late Tuesday into Wednesday. The greatest potential for rain with this system will stay farther north, but that could change if the trough digs farther south. The second feature to watch is a longwave trough that will set up over the Western US late next week. This may lead to ridging and warmer temperatures over the Southeast in addition to sending several impulses through the area, which would lead to multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms next weekend.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

An area of severe storms is moving south of MSL this morning and should miss HSV. Additional development along this segment will be the primary convective concern for both terminals today. Low chance (<20%) of additional storms impacting both terminals this afternoon, with higher confidence east of both terminals. IFR to low end MVFR ceilings persist with a stratus deck for today before gradually lifting to MVFR this evening and VFR late tonight. There is a low chance for light rain/drizzle this evening, but something to be mindful of, as lower ceilings may continue longer than forecast.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.

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