Tuesday, October19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:12PM Tuesday October 19, 2021 4:58 PM CDT (21:58 UTC) Moonrise 6:01PMMoonset 5:56AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, AL
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location: 34.83, -87.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
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FXUS64 KHUN 192003 AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 303 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

NEAR TERM. (Remainder of today and tonight) Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

There have been no major changes to forecast reasoning for the remainder of the day since the morning update, as broken-overcast high-level clouds spreading across the region from the west will keep temperatures stable and in the l-m 70s through late this afternoon.

The quiet weather pattern will continue overnight, as the base of an amplifying ridge at the 500-mb level shifts eastward across the region, resulting in light westerly flow aloft. In the lower-levels, an increase in the southwesterly low-level jet downstream from a shortwave trough ejecting northeastward from the central Rockies may lead to few stratus clouds prior to sunrise. Due to light south- southeasterly winds and a greater coverage of high clouds, conditions do not appear as favorable for radiational cooling/fog development tonight, with lows expected to be in the mid 40s-lower 50s.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

The shortwave trough noted above is predicted to advance further northeastward across the northern Plains tomorrow, before accelerating eastward-northeastward through the Lower Great Lakes and into western New England from Wednesday night-Thursday night, as it becomes absorbed in the flow around a deeper upper cyclone over northern Ontario. This will induce a return to deep-layer southwesterly flow across the local area tomorrow, that will strengthen further through the day on Thursday. Although atmospheric moisture content will begin to increase tomorrow, this process will be slow to evolve, and we expect dry conditions with highs once again in the l-m 70s.

A greater increase in precipitable water is expected to occur late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, when the southwesterly low- level jet should reach peak intensity prior to the arrival of a weak cold front Thursday evening. Scattered-numerous showers and perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms will develop during the early morning hours in the strengthening warm/moist advection regime, and should spread northeastward through the late morning hours. Although this activity will depart the region early in the day, a second round of convection will likely evolve along the slow-moving cold front, as it pushes southeastward into the region during the late afternoon and evening hours. With updrafts during this period more likely to be rooted in the boundary layer, a few stronger storms will be possible given SBCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range and deep-layer shear of 30-35 knots. The cold front should clear most of the forecast area by Midnight, with temperatures dropping into the u40s-l50s by sunrise on Friday.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Monday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Moderate west-northwest flow aloft will prevail across the TN Valley early in the extended period, as the base of a broader longwave trough shifts slowly eastward across eastern North America. Dry conditions are expected in the wake of the cold frontal passage Thursday evening, but the magnitude of cold/dry advection in the wake of this front will not be as pronounced as with our previous frontal passage, with dewpoints remaining in the l-m 50s.

During the day on Saturday, models suggest that a well-defined lee cyclone will develop across the southern High Plains, with a warm front extending well to the east of the low expected to lift northward through the region Saturday night. Ascent along and north of the retreating warm front may be sufficient for the development of elevated convection during this period, although this would likely be fairly weak given the lack of elevated instability noted in forecast soundings. At this point, we have included a slight-low chance POP from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for locations north of the TN River, as this is the region where convection will initially develop before the warm front lifts further northward Sunday afternoon. A warm/moist airmass featuring modest southerly winds will remain in place across the region early next week, with highs in the u70s-l80s and lows in the u50s-l60s.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

VFR conditions will prevail at the HSV/MSL terminals through the early morning hours Wednesday, with a bkn coverage of Ci providing cigs arnd FL250. A strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and modest moisture advection will result in northward development of lower stratus clouds in the 10-14Z timeframe, with bkn cigs arnd 2500 ft anticipated by the end of the valid TAF period. Although some patchy BR/FG will still be possible btwn 5-13Z in wind-protected river valleys, conditions do not appear as favorable for vsby reductions at the airports compared to previous mornings. Sfc winds will remain in the 5-10 knot range, with direction veering from SSE to SSW by 14Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . NONE. TN . NONE.



NEAR TERM . 70/DD SHORT TERM . 70/DD LONG TERM . 70/DD AVIATION . 70/DD

For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muscle Shoals, North West Alabama Regional Airport, AL6 mi65 minSSW 410.00 miFair75°F48°F39%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSL

Wind History from MSL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4NE3000000000E30000E5SE30S9SW50SW3SW4
1 day ago4N300000000000000004E74E3E6E4
2 days agoNW7NW4NW3NW4NW3NW40W30N3N4N300003N5N6N9NE7NE6NE74

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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