Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Richlands, NC

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 7 AM Mon...Inc pop trend is on track, as coverage and intensity of showers and a few storms is inc in Onslow Bay and will be moving ashore and expanding acrs the swrn zones, where flood watch in effect starting 8a.

Prev disc
As of 4 AM Mon
An upper level low over the Deep South will become negatively tilted today allowing for deep moist convergence across ENC. Increasing lapse rates in the vicinity of the upper level low will enable developing instability despite only tepid surface heating. ML CAPE vals only in the 500 - 1,000 J/KG range however, so no severe expected. High PW's approaching 2" will pose a threat for areas of heavy rain, esp where some banding of heavy showers or storms occur. A long standing moderate drought is in place across most of ENC, so no severe flooding is expected. With LPPM vals reaching or exceeding 5" for swrn zones, there is some flood threat despite the drought conditions, and thus have hoisted a flood watch for these areas. This lines up where periodic sfc ThetaE vals are highest and layer streamlines converge, and is the reasoning for the watch.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 4 AM Mon...A break in the heavier rain rates through first part of the evening, before reinvigoration of heavier rain rates arrives after 6Z with frontal forcing arriving first in the Coastal Plain counties, and then further east towards daybreak Tue. Heaviest rain rates are expected late tonight for the watch area, and will extend through the night and first half of Tue for this reason. Generally expecting widespread 2-3" for most of ENC, though an axis of 3-4", locally to 5" for the counties in the watch. Towards the OBX, lower amts of 1-2" or so are expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 3 AM Monday...

Aloft: An upper low will become progressively more negatively tilted on Tuesday as it digs northeast across the OH River Valley. By late Wednesday, this upper low will become absorbed into the shortwave across the Mid-Atlantic states. The axis of the upper trough will traverse ENC late Wednesday/early Thursday with weak upper ridging briefly building in it's wake. A weak, quick hitting shortwave will pass Friday night followed by another, slightly stronger shortwave on Saturday with zonal flow taking over on Sunday.

Surface: At the surface, an occluded low will move northeast into the OH River Valley with an additional low forming over western NC in response to the upper trough becoming increasingly negatively tilted. The warm front associated with the latter surface low will lift north across ENC Tuesday into Wednesday, putting us firmly in the warm sector. From there, the next FROPA won't be until Saturday, although not much of an airmass change is expected.

Tuesday - Wednesday...The axis of greatest moisture will become more progressive through the day on Tuesday, shifting the area of heaviest rain from the southwestern counties in the morning to the OBX by the afternoon. Given PWATs around 2" and the heavy rain already occurring ahead of Tuesday's round, flooding will be a concern, especially for areas south of US 70. The antecedent surface conditions will work in our favor given the ongoing drought, but efficient rain rates may still cause issues. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued for Greene, Lenoir, Jones, Duplin, and Onslow Counties and is currently in effect until 18Z Tuesday. Plenty of moisture and lift will remain in the area on Wednesday, which will support the continuation of likely to categorical PoPs.
Thunderstorms will be likely in the afternoon, especially along any seabreeze boundary. And with a slightly drier column, rain rates will not be as efficient as they will be on Tuesday.

Thursday - Sunday...Towards the end of the week, we'll return to a typical summertime pattern with daily chances of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will steadily climb through the week, reaching the 90s across the coastal plain Friday and Saturday. These temps, accompanied by dews in the low- 70s, will generate heat indices ranging from 95-100+.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 7 AM Mon...Increasing low level moisture and advancing rain showers from the south will lead to lowering CIGs , with MVFR conditions likely at all TAF sites. Local IFR possible at times esp in heavier showers and storms. Increasing chances for sporadic lightning today, and a prob30 for thunder in place today. A break in the heavier showers first part of tonight, before heavy showers and inc thunderstorm chances from the west late tonight towards dawn Tue.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3:50 AM Monday...Prolonged periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible throughout the period given the active pattern at play. The heaviest rain will occur on Tuesday, but daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Winds will be generally, SE at 10-15 kts through tonight, and then increase to SE 15-20 kts with frequent gusts to 25+ kts starting this afternoon first for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, and then Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds tonight. Seas will be 2-5 ft through the morning, and then increase to 4-6 ft this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3:55 AM Monday...Dangerous boating conditions will persist through Tuesday. 15-25 kt southeasterly winds will gust to 25-30 kt on Tuesday with seas building to 6-8 ft. By Wednesday morning, the winds will have veered to the southwest, decreasing to 5-15 kt and seas dropping to 3-4 ft.

HYDROLOGY
As of 4 AM Mon...Storm total rainfall is expected to be in the 2-3" range for much of ENC, though an axis of 3-4", locally to 5" for Duplin, Onslow, Jones, Lenoir, and Greene counties, where a flood watch is in effect through early Tuesday afternoon.
Towards the OBX, lower amts of 1-2" or so are expected.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NCZ079-090>092-198- 199.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ231.