Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 3 AM Sat...

Key Messages...

- Well below normal conditions continue with highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s

Cold high pressure will continue over the area through today.
After a frosty and cold start this morning, with temps in the low to mid 20s, we will be slow to warm with still well below normal heights over the region. Highs will only reach the upper 40s to low 50s, some 10-15 degrees below normal, under mostly sunny skies and light winds.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
As of 3 AM Sat...

Key Messages...

- Cold conditions expected again tonight with lows below freezing inland

- Rapidly moderating conditions Sunday as a warm front lifts through the area with highs in the mid to upper 60s possible

- Isolated to scattered showers possible Sunday ahead of and along a cold front which will move through the area Sunday evening

Cold and dry high pressure will retreat tonight, but we will still see good radiational cooling the first half of the night with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and 30s closer to the coast. By early tomorrow morning a weak warm front will lift to the southern NC coast with temperatures rapidly rising from the 30s to the 50s or even low 60s. As the warm front lifts through ENC Sunday morning, southerly flow will develop boosting temps into the mid to upper 60s. A fair amount of clouds are likely with moisture increasing, but any locations that see breaks of sun will have the opportunity to warm towards 70 degrees.

High res models continue to indicate the potential for a cluster of scattered showers moving through the forecast area during the day Sunday, likely associated with a prefrontal trough, and have introduced some low end PoPs (15-20%) which may need to be increased later on if this trend continues.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 3 AM Sat...

Key Messages

- A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday into Wednesday with the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal flooding

- Below normal conditions continue the rest of next week, with the potential for another low pressure system to move through the Carolinas late week

An active weather pattern is shaping up early to mid next week.
During this time, upper level troughing is forecast to develop across the central U.S., with southwesterly flow developing aloft across the southern U.S. At the SFC, a notably strong area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast Monday, then lift NE through the Southeastern U.S. early next week.

The majority of guidance continues to depict low pressure taking a "just" inland track as it moves through the Carolinas and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Though there remains some uncertainty with the track and intensity still, most model solutions show the potential for Gale Force winds and heavy rain.

With this track we will be on the "warm" side of the low, but just barely. There remains potential for some convective elements and thunder, but this should be mostly confined to the immediate coast and over the nearshore marine waters. A plume of anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears supportive of a period of moderate to heavy rain along the track of the low.
Ensemble guidance and other forecast aids continue to show a notable signal for heavy rain (1-2"+). The rain is much needed as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought. That said, some minor nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out for areas that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher rain rates.

For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we'll have to closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside flooding impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle.

High pressure briefly builds in towards the middle of the week, but this may be short-lived as yet another coastal low may impact the area towards the end of next week.

Temperatures fall back down below normal Monday, but bounce back up on Tuesday. Below normal conditions then likely return for the rest of the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 PM Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through much of tonight, then a low chance for sub-VFR conditions late tonight into Sunday morning.

Arctic high pressure centered across the region this afternoon bringing a very dry airmass with dewpoints in the teens inland and 20s along the coast. The high slides offshore tonight with low level flow slowly veering to SE Sunday morning and eventually Sly Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Fog potential remains very low tonight despite gradual dewpoint recovery overnight as temps will remain well above cross-over temps. However, cannot completely rule out shallow ground fog, mainly across eastern rtes closer to the coast given near saturated conditions. Could also see stratus moving onshore late tonight into Sunday morning as low-level flow veers to SE bringing the potential for a period of MVFR cigs. Probs remain quite low, generally less than 30% and will keep mentions to few-sct at coastal TAF sites.

Outlook: Could see a period of sub-VFR conditions with widely scattered showers ahead of a cold front Sunday evening. High pressure builds back into the area Monday with pred VFR conditions expected. Widespread sub-VFR likely Tuesday as a low pressure system is forecast to lift along the coast. High pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and Thursday with pred VFR conditions expected.



MARINE
As of 3 AM Sat...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions likely develop Sunday night behind a cold front through most of Monday

- Increasing potential for Gale Force winds Tuesday as a strong low pressure system moves over the Carolinas

- Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into Wednesday

With high pressure centered over the southern Mid-Atlantic, northerly winds at 10-20 kts will persist over ENC the rest of the morning. Winds subside to NE 5-15 kts this afternoon as the high moves nearly overhead. Winds will veer tonight as a weak warm front moves through the waters by early tomorrow morning with winds becoming S at 5-15 kts. Southerly winds increase to 10-20 kts Sunday afternoon, and then switch to the NW Sunday night behind a cold front. Winds strengthen to NNW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts overnight into Monday morning.

Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft this morning, and then subside to 2-3 ft through tomorrow evening. Seas will quickly respond to increasing winds Sunday night building to 4-6 ft by sunrise.

Outlook: Improving conditions expected the rest of Monday, but this will be short lived as a strong low pressure system is expected to move through the coastal waters Tuesday. There is potential for Gale Force winds across much of the coastal waters, with the exact strength of the winds (and wind direction) still to be worked out. Hazardous marine conditions will continue for some time behind this system through Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 3 AM Sat...A strong low pressure system moving through North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening's and early Wednesday morning's high tides. The forecast magnitude and direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity are still unclear at this time.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.