Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Unsettled weather pattern persists through Wednesday as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact ENC bringing a low end flash flooding risk.

2) Return to a more typical summertime pattern Thursday onwards.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...There is little change in the synoptic setup as an upper level trough currently in the Tennessee River Valley has stalled across the area and will remain there into midweek before weakening and eventually getting absorbed by a passing northern stream trough late Wed into Thurs. This should keep the moisture channel open from the Gulf into at least midweek as upper level southerly winds remain in place advecting moisture northwards. A few shortwaves will transit around the base of the upper trough and lift north through the Carolinas through Wed. As the upper trough dissipates/gets absorbed later this week, any mid level forcing shifts farther inland away from ENC.

A stagnant surface front to our west will move little before dissipating on Wed. Given moist, southerly flow across the region combined with high PWATs (2.3+ inches), any thunderstorms that do form have the potential to produce heavy rainfall. Any addition areas where localized flash flooding could occur are confined to areas along the Crystal Coast and along the OBX south of Oregon Inlet.

KEY MESSAGE 2...By late week the area returns to climo or below climo PoPs as a lack of mid level shortwaves or significant forcing will be noted across Eastern NC. This will likely result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along the sea-breeze, but once again these chances should be isolated at best given the overall setup. After a cool start to the week temperatures begin to rebound back into the upper 80s to low 90s inland and mid 80s along the OBX.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mostly MVFR conditions will persist across Eastern NC this afternoon due to showers and isolated thunderstorms. Given potential for heavier showers this afternoon, have included TEMPO -TSRA at IFR levels but with medium confidence.
Otherwise, moist southerly flow continues across the area which may support shallow fog development tonight. Have capped at 5SM but if winds can sufficiently decouple late, fog and low stratus may become a greater concern before sunrise.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Periods of sub-VFR ceilings/vis are possible Wednesday with a chances for showers and thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west.
Precip chances and thus the threat for sub-VFR conditions look to decrease beyond Wed and into the weekend as high pressure builds into the area.

MARINE
Winds and seas continue to subside this afternoon as a stalled front to our west has continued to weaken with high pressure ridging building into the area. Ongoing S-SW winds at 10-15 kts and seas 2-4 ft are noted across across the coastal waters. As the aforementioned front gradually dissipates today and high pressure ridging builds farther over the area, winds and seas will remain sub-SCA, with SSW winds 5-10 kts and seas 2-4 ft through tonight.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Expect more benign winds and seas for the period as high pressure remains the dominant feature across the region. Winds generally remain below 15 kts and seas persist around 2-4 ft into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.