Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 151950 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 250 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure passes south of the area tonight, remaining well offshore on Monday. A strong cold front will cross the area Tuesday night, with cold high pressure building in through Friday. A coastal storm is possible by next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 230 PM Sun . High pressure slides south of the area tonight, setting up offshore early Monday morning. Persistent dry air throughout much of the column will keep a dry forecast in place, though minor height falls aloft could result in the formation of some cirrus late. Overall, calm and clear conditions through most of the night will allow for very efficient rational cooling, and have opted for lows a bit below guidance consensus, in the upper 30s to near 40 for most away from the beaches. Patchy fog is possible around sunrise mainly along the corridor where the best low level moisture along the coast intersects the best radiational cooling inland, which is roughly along and east of the US Hwy 17 corridor.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/. As of 230 PM Sun . Low and upper level moisture advection increases through the day Monday as high pressure remains offshore and low pressure deepens while crossing the Mississippi Valley. Despite increasing cloud cover later in the day, persistent weak mid-level ridging will keep a dry forecast in place. Ample morning sunshine and 1000-850 mb thickness values 1360-1370 m justifies highs 10-15 deg above normal for most.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 230 PM Sun . Warm weather is expected through Tuesday, before a cold front crosses the region and brings another round of showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much colder conditions expected behind the front Wednesday and Thursday, with a possible coastal storm developing next weekend.

Monday night and Tuesday . High pressure will ridge in from offshore through Tuesday morning, as a strong cold front and upper level trough approach from the west. Warm SW flow continues Tuesday, guidance has continued to delay the passage of the cold front slightly, which will lead to a warmer solution with highs likely reaching the low 70s in many locations despite mostly cloudy skies.

Expect chances for showers to increase from west to east Tuesday morning, with widespread rain expected from late morning through Tuesday night. Have increased PoPs along the coast overnight, as the front looks a bit slower to exit off the coast. Given the warm and moist atmosphere, some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, but should be relegated to the immediate coast and offshore. Severe threat looks marginal, as uncertainty remains with how much instability will develop onshore, but the dynamic profile is impressive with 50-70 kts of bulk shear present.

Wednesday and Thursday . Much colder conditions are expected behind the cold front Wednesday, as strong CAA will limit temps from rising very much during the day despite sunny skies. Expect below average highs, mostly in the low to mid 40s. Then, as the base of the upper level trough moves across the area Wednesday night and into Thursday, temps will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s overnight, and then only rebound into the low 40s for highs Thursday afternoon.

Friday through Sunday . Despite continued modest CAA Friday, heights will build as a weak upper level ridge approaches from the west. This will lead to moderating temperatures with highs reaching the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Still alot of uncertainty for Saturday and Sunday with the potential for a strong coastal storm. Significant differences continue in global models with very little run to run consistency, so very low confidence forecast for the weekend. Though the only trend with the 12z guidance is to suppress the low to the south a bit.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through Monday 18Z/ . As of 1200 PM Sun . VFR will dominate through the period as a ridge of high pressure slides through the area. Overnight, winds will be light to calm with clear skies and temps reaching dewpts early Monday morning, leading to speculation of some patchy fog. Some hi-res models suggest patchy fog while global models are not on board. Added a brief period of MVFR fog to SE sites to reflect the slight increase in potential. Any patchy fog will burn off quickly after sunrise.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/ . As of 230 PM Sun . VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning when another cold front moves through the area and may bring periods of MVFR/IFR conditions through Wednesday morning. VFR conditions return later Wednesday through the end of the period.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 245 PM Sun . High pressure passes just south of the area tonight, settling well offshore Monday. Mainly light SW flow tonight as the high passes closest becomes S Monday, gradually increasing to 10-15 kt through the day as low developing over the Mississippi Valley begins to tighten the gradient locally. Seas continue to fall to 2-4 ft overnight tonight, before beginning to increase again in mainly windswell Monday.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/ . As of 230 PM Sun . Increasing winds and seas Monday night ahead of a cold front, with continued strong winds and hazardous seas lasting through Thursday.

Winds will increase to 20-25 kts on Tuesday. The cold front is expected to cross the waters overnight into Wednesday morning, with winds turning to the NNW at 20-30 kts through Wednesday afternoon. Thereafter, winds become 15-20 kts, except for a period Wednesday night into Thursday morning when winds increase to 20-30 kts. Seas will build to 4-6 ft Monday night and 6-10 ft Tuesday. Seas then subside slightly to 5-8 ft on Wednesday through most of Thursday. Much better boating day expected Friday with winds less than 15 kt and seas 2-3 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CB SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . SGK/CQD AVIATION . ML/CQD MARINE . CB/CQD/SGK

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	20 mi	64 min	SW 7 G 8.9	57°F			1020.3 hPa (+0.3)	49°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	21 mi	58 min	SW 2.9 G 6	57°F	56°F		1020.2 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	41 mi	58 min	WSW 7 G 12	57°F	57°F		1019.7 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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SW8 G13

W6 G15

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W5 G11

W9 G17

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W4 G11

NW7

NW2 G7

W4 G8

W6 G11

W3 G6

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NW5 G8

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NW4 G10

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W11 G20

SW8 G14

SW6 G12

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N12 G18

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC	12 mi	68 min	SW 9	10.00 mi	Fair	59°F	42°F	54%	1020.1 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC	20 mi	66 min	SW 9	10.00 mi	Fair	57°F	46°F	67%	1019.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)

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SW8

W18 G25

W19 G27

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W14

W16 G23

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N7

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N13 G21

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NE14 G21

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Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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