Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 271832 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 132 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will pass to the north this weekend, with a strong and complex low pressure system impacting the region Sunday night into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 110 PM Fri . Remaining convection is located near mainland Dare county and the northern OBX, with previous storms along the Gulf Stream now well east of there, though continuing to blossom with consistent lightning/higher reflectivities. Hi- res guidance struggled with location/development earlier today, and still suggests more light showers for southern areas, though given recent trends, held off on showers for southern zones.

Generally expect shortwave and associated rain to shift off the northern coast over the next few hours with the evening remaining mostly dry. Fog has improved to 3-5SM early this afternoon and expect improving trends to continue. Low clouds are continuing for some inland portions, with GOES-16 VIS clearly showing the back edge of low stratus moving into western portions of the CWA.

Low clouds have limited insolation for inland zones, so lowered max temps a few degrees there, though continued mild conditions this afternoon with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Overnight, weak front will push farther offshore with high pressure building in from the west. Expect overnight hours to remain dry with light westerly winds. Coverage of clouds remains tricky, and fog may again develop for far inland locations like Greenville and Kinston late tonight. Overnight lows will range mid 40s inland to mid 50s along the coast/OBX.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/. As of 115 PM Fri . Another weak shortwave trough aloft will move through ENC during the midday hours, though moisture remains limited, and for now, will leave out mention of precip but cannot completely rule out some sprinkles. Strong high pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley will build towards the region Sat. Westerly winds will shift northwesterly late as the ridge nears, though remain light. Max temps will range mid 60s across Eastern NC.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 230 AM Fri . High pressure builds in for the weekend before a very strong cold front brings heavy rain Monday. Behind the front, a much colder airmass will take hold midweek.

Sunday . High pressure builds in from the west to provide seasonable weather for the weekend. Winds turn more easterly Sunday as the surface ridge begins to move off the Mid-Atlantic coast, keeping afternoon temps limited to the low-to-mid 60s.

Sunday night through Monday . A vigorous mid-level trough will dig across the central US, developing a strong mid-latitude cyclone over the Southeastern US that will march towards the Northeast before becoming cut-off around the US/Canadian border. An associated robust cold front will push through our region during this time, providing for a very wet end to the month with bounteous moisture in place. Latest guidance shows PWAT values over 1.5", exceeding the daily climo max. Widespread heavy rainfall is expected early Monday morning through the afternoon. Additionally, MUCAPE values over 500 J/kg for the southern coastline suggest the possibility of a few iso to sct tstorms. Too soon at this point for specifics on severe weather threat, but with modest shear overhead, can't rule out a stronger tstorm moving ashore the Crystal Coast and Southern OBX. Cold front will push offshore overnight Monday, taking the precip with it, but ushering much colder air in its wake.

Tuesday thru Thursday . High pressure will slowly build across the southern US behind the cold front. Cold airmass will be in place Tuesday and Wednesday with 850mb temp anomolies 10-15 degrees C below normal. A spotty coastal shower in the OBX area possible Tuesday, but otherwise dry and cold. Highs Tue and Wed will be in the upper 40s and low-50s inland to mid- 50s along the coast. Lows inland at night will likely drop below freezing. Weak WAA will return Thu and raise aftn temps into the 50s inland to around 60 along the coast.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term /Through 18Z Saturday/ . As of 115 PM Fri . Low clouds continue to be an aviation concern this afternoon, mainly for more inland sites of PGV/ISO with IFR low stratus expected to continue through roughly 21Z. Improvement to MVFR expected after 21Z for all sites due to weak shortwave trough aloft shifting off the coast.

Fog will again be possible tonight between 05-11Z for PGV/ISO where moisture trapped under a weak surface-based inversion with decoupled winds should support IFR level fog development. Cannot rule out low stratus development as well, but confidence is lower and did not include in TAFs with 18Z issuance.

Saturday will see a return to VFR with light westerly winds becoming northwesterly by late afternoon.

Long Term /Sat through Tuesday/ . As of 240 AM Fri . Pred VFR conditions Sat through Sunday. Widespread sub-VFR conditions likely overnight Sunday through Monday as a strong cold front pushes through the region, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds. VFR returns Tue with some breezy conditions.

MARINE. Short Term /Through tonight/ . As of 115 PM Fri . Latest surface and buoy data indicate generally light northerly winds for the central and northern waters, with light and variable across the Sounds and southern waters. Seas remain medium period, 9 seconds, at 2-3 ft. Winds will gradually become westerly later this evening and overnight, then northwesterly Saturday, 5-15 kt with seas ranging 2-4 ft.

Long Term /Sat through Tuesday/ . As of 245 AM Fri . Decent boating conditions thru Sun with light NW winds 5-15 kts Sat becoming E by Sun. Seas will be a general 2-4 ft.

Marine conditions dramatically decline Sun night as a strong cold front is set to push through the region Monday. Gale conditions likely as winds turn S ahead of the front Sunday night and ramp up to 25-35 kts with gusts 40+ kts and seas over 10 ft Monday. Heavy rain also expected with a few strong storms possible. Behind the front, SCA conditions expected Mon night and Tue with gusty WSW winds 20-30 kts and waves 6-9 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . DAG SHORT TERM . DAG LONG TERM . ML AVIATION . DAG/ML MARINE . DAG/ML

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	20 mi	47 min	NNW 6 G 7	65°F			1015.5 hPa (+0.9)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	21 mi	47 min	NNW 6 G 8.9	64°F	64°F		1016 hPa (+0.9)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	41 mi	47 min	N 5.1 G 7	60°F	63°F		1015.3 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC	20 mi	49 min	NNW 6	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	63°F	62°F	97%	1015.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

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Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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