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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 340 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late. Waves light chop.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves choppy.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.

AMZ100 340 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A weakening area of low pressure will push across the area this afternoon. High pressure briefly builds into the area tonight through early Tuesday. Low pressure develops along the carolina coast Tuesday afternoon, then lifts away from the area late Tuesday night, followed by a mid-level shortwave pushing through on Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the area through Saturday.

FXUS62 KMHX 042026 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 326 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weakening area of low pressure will push across the area this afternoon. High pressure briefly builds into the area tonight through early Tuesday. Low pressure develops along the Carolina coast Tuesday afternoon, then lifts away from the area late Tuesday night, followed by a mid-level shortwave pushing through on Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the area through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 PM Monday...A dampening mid-level shortwave and sfc low reflection are pushing across the southern Appalachians early this afternoon and will continue to weaken as they push across ENC late this afternoon and evening. Very little sensible weather will accompany this feature aside from occasional passing mid and high clouds but otherwise the column is much too dry with westerly downslope flow providing additional drying for any precip to occur. High pressure briefly builds in from the west after midnight into Tuesday morning.
Sfc winds will generally be light across much of the area but gradients do tighten across southern section this afternoon and could see wly winds around 15-20 mph into the evening. Gradients relax after midnight with winds becoming light Nly with most areas away from the coast decoupling, which will allow for good radiational cooling. Temps will be much chillier tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s inland to 40s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
As of 245 PM Monday...Near zonal flow aloft to start the day but a northern stream shortwave digging across the Midwest will allow for improving upper level dynamics and guidance showing a sfc low developing along a stalled boundary south of Cape Fear.
This low will slowly drift NNEwd through the afternoon to off of Cape Lookout by late in the day. Could see a few showers developing off the coast late in the day but it will remain dry across land areas. High will be near normal at a few degrees either side of 60. The coolest temps will be across the NRN OBX where onshore flow will hold high temps to the mid 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 435 AM Sunday...A progressive pattern develops for the upcoming week into next weekend, with a strong shortwave aloft on Wednesday bringing chances for rain, then a strong cold front possible by late weekend.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Surface low will move well away from the coast as a strong midlevel shortwave trough moves in from the northwest Tuesday night into Wed. Maintained previous forecast thinking with timing of PoPs, but increased a few percentage points and increased QPF to 0.10-0.15 inches, esp. east of HWY 17 and for the northern OBX. A strong surface gradient will develop between the departing (and strengthening)
surface low, and high pressure building in late Wed into Wed night, with gusty winds expected Wed afternoon through evening, upwards of 30-40 mph for the central and northern OBX.

Thursday into Sunday...High pressure sets in behind Wednesday's shortwave, and begins a warming trend that will last through the weekend. Strong southerly return flow will develop by late Saturday, building dew points back into the 50s by sunset Sat. A complex low pressure system will move through the Ohio River Valley as the upper level trough digs south into the Southeast.
Continued high-chance PoPs for showers ahead of and associated with the frontal passage. Cannot rule out thunderstorms with Sunday's front, but still too early to mention thunder despite strong kinematics, given limited instability.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 230 PM Monday...Pred VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A mid-level shortwave will push across rtes this afternoon and evening which could bring occasional mid and high clouds but lower levels will remain dry. Winds will generally be light Wly this afternoon gradually backing to Nly tonight, then NEly on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Monday...Predominant VFR aviation conditions through the period. Showers are possible across eastern NC on Wed, but the area should remain dry otherwise. Gusty winds, upwards of 20-25 kt, are anticipated on Wednesday due to a strong surface gradient developing between low pressure offshore and strong high pressure over the Deep South. Gusty winds will diminish by Thursday as high pressure builds in from the southwest.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 315 PM Monday...Winds generally light and variable this afternoon but are beginning to increase across the southern waters as gradients tighten in response to a weakening low approaching from the west. Wind this evening will mainly be W to NWly less than 15 kt except the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras where winds will be around 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt through this evening. Will continue to forego an SCA with the brevity of near SCA gusts. Winds become Nly less than 15 kt after midnight backing to NE on Tuesday. Seas will be around 2-3 ft except south of Cape Hatteras this afternoon and evening where seas will be around 3-5 ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 415 AM Monday...Busy marine weather for portions of the long term period. Wednesday will present the next scenario for SCA conditions with possibly gale-force gusts for Wednesday afternoon into evening, esp. for the outer coastal waters. These winds are the result of a strong pressure gradient developing between developing low pressure offshore and strong high pressure building in from the west. Winds and seas diminish on Thursday as the surface high pressure moves over the waters, with light SW flow developing Friday as the high shifts offshore.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for AMZ150-152-154-156.

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Spooner Creek
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Mon -- 02:16 AM EST     1.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:36 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:30 PM EST     1.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:22 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet

Core Creek Bridge
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Mon -- 01:22 AM EST     1.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:36 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:24 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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