Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Havelock, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 7:30 PM Saturday...Any precip this evening is looking less and less likely. Lowered PoPs this evening but did keep slt chance near the coast for the next few hours as some guidance continues to show an isolated storm popping up ahead of the front. The rest of the forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion...Latest visible satellite imagery shows lingering cloud cover near the coast with mostly sunny skies across the rest of the CWA Guidance has trended slightly later with potential convective initiation (00Z or later), but confidence remains low on whether or not anything will develop at all. 18Z hi-res guidance continues to show isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the coast and north of Highway 264, but with subsidence in the low and mid-levels and the lingering cloud cover along the coast, CIN may be too great to overcome. IF convection is able to develop, the primary concern would be an isolated damaging wind gust, but a lack of forcing is making convective development look meager at best.

After midnight, a dry cold front will pass and veer winds to the west. Low temperatures will be roughly 5-10 degrees cooler than last night with the coastal plain dropping to the mid- to upper-60s and the coast reaching the low-70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
As of 3:30 PM Saturday...

The upper low will work its way off the northeast coast with shortwave ridging building in from the west locally. This will lead to downsloping flow aloft, pumping warm, dry air into the region. This resultant drop in humidity will be the most notable change in sensible weather with a roughly 10 degree drop in dews decreasing RHs into the 30-40% range across the coastal plain. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-80s inland and low-80s along the coast. A slight chance of showers is possible in the late afternoon, mainly along the Highway 264 corridor, but with a lack of forcing at the surface and shortwave ridging building in aloft, it wouldn't be surprising for the forecast to trend completely dry with future updates.

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather expected tonight

A cold front will push east through ENC this evening, with drier and slightly cooler air moving in behind it. This sets the stage for lows ending up about 10 degrees cooler tonight than last night. With a drier and more stable airmass moving in, no thunderstorms are expected once the front clears the area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 0500 Saturday...MOSTLY quiet end of the weekend with unsettled pattern beginning to unfold middle of upcoming week.

Up to Midweek...The next low to impact the area stems from digging trough aloft over central CONUS ultimately leading to stout vertically stacked low traversing the Ohio River Valley and approaching the NECONUS coast early week. Shortwave embedded in the flow aloft leads to cyclogenesis along the meandering boundary. This low will work up the SC and eventually NC coast Tuesday through Wednesday, upping cloudiness and rain chances again.

Late week...High pressure builds in at the SFC from the W while low departs to the NE. Trough aloft lingers over NECONUS through the end of the week preventing a completely dry forecast until stronger ridging spills Eward toward the end of the longterm period.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 8 PM Saturday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the period with southwesterly winds becoming westerly late tonight as a cold front passes. Could see gusts up to 20 kt possible late Sunday morning and afternoon. Light mixing overnight with lowering post frontal dewpoints will prevent fog development.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 0430 AM Saturday...A front will meander across the region until mid week. Expecting mostly VFR flight cats through MON, though low end chance of showers SUN may bring subVFR. Better chances of subVFR flight cats Tues and Wed as wave of low pressure traveling along the front traverses the Carolinas.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 4:45 PM Saturday...A pinched gradient is causing gusty southwesterly winds of 15-25 kt and 3-5 ft seas, which is expected to build to 5-6 ft south of Oregon Inlet this evening.
Conditions will start to improve late tonight with seas dropping below 6 ft and gusts decreasing to 15-20 kt as they veer to the west with the passing of a cold front. North of Cape Hatteras, winds will remain out of the west while farther to the south, winds will back to the southwest by mid-morning.
Thunderstorm chances continue to decrease but cannot rule out an isolated storm this evening.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 0445 Friday...

Late weekend through early week...Tonight's front stalls to the S of the FA where it will meander back N and S through early week. Werly winds 10-15kt early SUN become SWerly 15-20kt in afternoon as front lifts back Nward. Winds become Nerly late Sun into early Mon as front sinks back Sward allowing weak high pressure to briefly build in. NEerly winds Tuesday continuing to veer to become Serly WED ahead of the next approaching low.
Conditions deteriorate as low approaches with SCA conditions possible and increase in shower/tstorm chances.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 135-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158.