Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garey, CA

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...03/938 PM.

***UPDATE***

Low clouds and fog are rapidly moving onshore and into most coastal areas south of Pt Conception this evening following a 2mb onshore trend and some cooling aloft as well. Tops are around 1100' this evening in the LA Basin sloping down to around 500' along the Central Coast. Currently the forecast is for clear skies in the valleys but given the rapid advancement this evening can't completely rule out some clouds sneaking into the valleys overnight.

With the deeper marine layer and onshore flow Friday will certainly be a cooler day everywhere, but especially the valleys which were well into the 90s and lower 100s Thursday and likely cooler by 3-6 degrees Friday. All heat advisories and warnings have expired. There is still an Excessive heat watch in effect this weekend into Monday, though based on the latest ensemble based temperature guidance this next heat wave will not be as warm and likely will be best handled with heat advisories.

***From Previous Discussion***

Moving into Friday, winds are forecast to shift from southeast to southwest helping to cool most of the area 5-9 degrees. Warming will start again Saturday as high pressure builds in again and offshore flow returns again. The biggest uncertainty in the forecast Saturday will be how extensive marine layer clouds will be, so lower confidence in the temperatures at the coast. However, considering how prominent stratus was for our last heat wave, temperatures were trended towards the cooler solution at the coasts. The current excessive heat warning is still in effect starting Saturday, and will wait for the existing heat products to end before making any further modifications.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...03/322 PM.

The area remains sandwiched between high pressure over New Mexico and the strong, persistent low cycling just south of Alaska from Sunday into next week, leading to some interesting features moving through the region. A weak disturbance passes through from the southwest Sunday and a weak upper level low moves into the region Monday, transitioning to a cutoff low Tuesday. The impacts of this low are somewhat uncertain, but it should help increase marine layer clouds over the region and may lead to light drizzle in the marine layer through Wednesday.

Temperatures are expected to peak Sunday with ongoing light offshore winds. Highs should range from the upper 90s to low 100s over the interior and warmer valleys. There will be some northeast flow across the Santa Lucias which will likely bring a return of 90-100 degree temperatures to the San Luis Obispo area.
There is some uncertainty in how much coastal clouds will moderate temperatures Sunday and Monday,but leaning the forecast towards cooler values at the coast. Heights start to fall Monday (587-585 dam) starting the cooling trend that should last through mid- week, in line with the weak low moving into the area. Max temps will fall 6 to 12 degrees Tue and 2 to 4 degrees on Wednesday. By Wednesday most of the coasts and some of the vlys will be below normal, but the warmer vlys and interior will remain 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees above normal.

AVIATION
03/2356Z.

Due to a data outage, current marine layer and inversion height data is not available for KLAX.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KWJF, and KPMD.

Moderate to high confidence in KBUR and KVNY. There is a 10-20% chc of LIFR conds 07Z-15Z.

Low confidence in remainder of TAFs. There is a 40% chc of VLIFR conds at all sites overnight. For areas south of Pt Conception, the arrival time of low CIGs could differ by +/- 2 hours from TAF times and VSBY could vary between categories from VLIFR to low IFR through the night.

KLAX...Low confidence in the 00Z TAF. VSBY is likely to vary between VLIFR to low IFR through the night. The arrival and dissipation time of low clouds could differ by +/- 2 hours from TAF times. There is a 10-20% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kts between 06Z-16Z Fri.

KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAF with a 10-20% chance of LIFR conditions between 06Z-15Z.

MARINE
03/824 PM.

For the Outer Waters (along the Central Coast south to San Nicolas Island), moderate to high confidence in the current forecast for winds, but low confidence in seas. Through Saturday, high confidence in winds remaining below SCA (Small Craft Advisory)
levels. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds, especially in the late afternoon through evening hours. As for seas, swell heights of 8-12 feet are being recorded at local buoys along the Central Coast north of Point Conception, while the models are depicting seas of 6-8 feet. Adjusted the forecast to account for this, and indicated subsiding seas on Friday, following the model trends.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the afternoon and evening hours on Monday and Tuesday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds. Seas were also adjusted up for these waters, to match with the observations.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Generally high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday. Local NW gusts to 20 kt are possible during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday around Point Mugu and in the San Pedro Channel. Then, Monday night there is a 20-30% SCA winds for the Santa Barbara Channel.

A shallow marine layer will continue to generate some dense fog across portions of the coastal waters the next couple of nights and mornings. Visibilities of one nautical mile or less can be expected.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Excessive Heat Watch remains in effect from Saturday morning through Monday evening for zones 38-88-342>345-351>353-356>358-369>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.