Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garey, CA

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...17/1018 PM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures warmed well over the Ventura and LA coasts and valleys supported by Santa Ana winds. Highs ranged from the upper 70s to mid 80s for these areas, with cooler 60s to mid 70s elsewhere. Easterly wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph were limited to higher elevations in the San Gabriel and Santa Susana Mountains, with 25 to 40 mph gusts for favored valleys and the western Antelope Valley. Winds subsided quickly this afternoon, but expecting sub-advisory level east winds (25 to 35 mph gusts) to redevelop over Santa Ana favored higher terrain early tomorrow morning. This will lead to further warming, however warming may be limited by mid to high level clouds moving in. Highs should range about 6 to 12 degrees above normal, with widespread upper 70s to mid 80s. Current forecast looks on track, with no significant changes needed at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

Santa Ana winds peaked mid to late morning and have since dropped below advisory levels. Pressure gradients and upper support were both weaker than expected for this event, especially away from the mountain areas.

Meanwhile, temperatures definitely warmed with the offshore flow with highs mostly in the 70s across coast and valleys and a few lower 80s across inland Ventura County.

Additional warming is expected in all areas Saturday with lingering offshore flow and the departure of the cold air advection that limited interior warming today. Most inland areas should warm up at least 5 degrees over today, possibly as much as 10 degrees. Coastal areas got most of their warming today but should warm a few more degrees Saturday. Some lingering offshore winds are likely Saturday morning, mainly mountains and valleys, but below advisory levels.

A cooling trend will begin Sunday and continue Monday as a cold and cutoff upper low slowly meanders down the coast. Increasing morning stratus is possible near the coast Monday with increasing onshore flow ahead of the upper low. Most of the ensemble solutions keep rain north of SLO County at least through Monday evening.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...17/206 PM.

Still lots of uncertainty with the details of the incoming cutoff low. Rain chances remain quite high, 70-80% north and 40-60% south, but timing and amounts are still very much in question. The best chance of rain is Tuesday, but could be as early as late Monday along the Central Coast, and rain chances could linger as late as Wednesday night. The hangup in the forecast hinges on the speed of the approaching low and how far south it ultimately drops. With cutoff lows this this is a very difficult task 3-4 days out. While most of the ensemble solutions keep rain amounts south of Pt Conception under a half inch and under and inch in the north, there are some solutions for the Central Coast as high as 2 inches. That would likely require the low to drop much farther than most of the ensembles are suggesting creating a colder and more unstable air mass aloft that could generate heavier showers and possible thunderstorms. It's likely that confidence in this forecast will remain very low through the weekend.

AVIATION
18/0629Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, there was a surfaced based inversion up to 1500 feet with a maximum temperature of 21 degrees.

High confidence for TAFs, except moderate confidence for KLAX and KLGB that may (10-20% chance) see brief MVFR conditions after 12Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a slight (10%) chance of MVFR conditions from 13Z to 16Z. East wind component of 4 to 8 kt possible until 12Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
17/819 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are likely through late tonight over the two northern zones. There is a 30-40 percent chance of SCA gusts over PZZ676 as well. Saturday there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds, followed by lighter winds through Sunday. An approaching cold front has a small chance of producing SCA level southerly winds, along with a chance of showers between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. Wednesday into Wednesday night, increasing NW flow is forecast, with a good chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday, fairly high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels, however an approaching cold front will bring increasing southerly winds, along with a chance for showers between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. Increasing NW winds expected Wednesday and Wednesday night, with SCA winds possible by the evening.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. From Point Mugu to Malibu there is a a low chance (10%) of SCA gusts nearshore below any canyons/passes Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon through Tuesday, moderate to high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters. Winds will begin to increase of Tuesday from the NW, with SCA speeds possible by Wednesday afternoon or evening

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).