Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hiawassee, GA

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Very light scattered showers remains over the far southern CWA at this time. These will continue to slowly drift out of the area over the coming hours. The upper level cloud deck will remain in place across the CWA as the cold front stalls across the Gulf Coast (and here it shall remain through the coming days).

Model spread is high through the short term due to uncertainty in the evolution of mid and low level shortwave driven convection. The main deciding factor in the progression on rainfall and thunderstorms will rely heavily on convective initiation further south, which may cut off the area from moisture at any point over the coming 48hrs.

For this morning, the main uncertainty seems to be with how far eastward moisture can be transported around the descending frontal system to the south. While convective showers appears almost certain along the surface front, elevated showers may be possible early Saturday morning across western portions of central GA. A more aggressive solution is seen in the 00Z HRRR with widespread showers likely across areas south of I20. This may be overdone as the HRRR does tend to overmix surface conditions and may be extending the upward forcing of the sfc front further north than reality. As we progress through the day today, the evolution of a second low level shortwave becomes uncertain. Moisture availability will be significantly impacted by prior precipitation AND the 850 mb flow.
Model 25th to 75th percentile 850mb flow shows a low level jet-like feature with significant variance in fetch and strength. Solutions with a stronger and longer 850mb jet are able to transport/recharge moisture across the area. While weaker and shorter llj features are less productive. This is seen in the PWAT HRRR and NBM ensemble spread. PWAT spread from 25th to 75th percentile peaks this afternoon at over 0.5" and ranges from less than 1" to nearly 1.5".
This explains the extreme variance in precipitation production and the progressiveness of any further southward diving frontal systems today. Due to the uncertainty, PoPs have been smoothed out through the day.

The development of any precipitation on Sunday will also be dependent on shower development as well as how far south the secondary "front" makes it through the evening today. A more progressive front yields a drier solution Sunday, while a less progressive front may pose a scattered to isolated thunderstorms risk. One thing to watch for will be yet another shortwave which moves through the area on Sunday afternoon. Post frontal clearing through Sunday morning may allow for significant destabilization from diurnal heating. HRRR mean SBCAPE currently sits at 800J/Kg Sunday evening, though this is likely splitting the difference between models that DO destabilize and those that don't. In short, significant uncertainty to prevail. Cannot rule out a few isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, a few potentially strong. Magic 8 ball says "Ask again later".

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Uncertainty continues for the long term forecast thanks to the complexities of the convective evolution over the coming 24-48 hours. Sunday night into Monday, all models seem to agree on seeing a lobe of larger TPV over eastern Canada get pushed into the eastern US via anticyclonic Rossby wave break over the western US/Canada.
This combines with a strung out PV anomaly turned shortwave pushing across the Great Plains to finally drive a cold front into the southeast and push out our repeated rounds of rain and storms. The timing of this front looks to be through the day on Monday, finally pushing through by Monday night. The challenge is in the details of the convection and the exact placement of the aforementioned upper level features, which leads to some big differences in the sensible weather. The GFS suite leans toward a wet solution, with upper level lift bringing moisture surging north and giving us a decent rain with a few rumbles of thunder, while the Euro keeps things a little more capped, allowing for better thunderstorm chances. All of these may be dependent on convective evolution of the previous days and how worked over things are in the upper levels. So, I'd expect some rain come Monday, but just how much or where is a more difficult question to answer.

Cold front pushes through and things dry out by Tuesday. Tuesday morning lows will be in the 40s and 50s across north and central Georgia, meaning you can't put those coats away just yet. Afternoon highs will be in the 70s. Slow warming trend begins after that with temps remaining in the 70s and 80s. Another western ridge breaking will drive another shortwave trough towards the southeast on Wednesday, but the passage of this in Georgia looks to be dry at this time.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

MVFR ceilings are in place across the majority of the area as the period begins. Isolated/scattered -SHRA remains near CSG/MCN, but is expected to shift south of all sites by 19-20Z. Ceilings are forecast to improve to low VFR, between 030-040, at the ATL sites and AHN by 20Z while remaining MVFR at CSG/MCN. Winds this afternoon will be W/SW at 5-8 kts, becoming light and variable overnight. MVFR ceilings will redevelop after midnight, with IFR furthermore likely in central Georgia. Another round of SHRA will be possible in central Georgia and around CSG/MCN early Sunday morning. IFR ceilings may spread as far north as ATL, warranting a TEMPO from 10-14Z. Cloud cover will scatter out by the late morning on Sunday,

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
High confidence on winds.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

King

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 77 58 83 60 / 40 0 10 20 Atlanta 77 61 82 63 / 40 10 10 30 Blairsville 75 53 79 55 / 10 0 0 10 Cartersville 79 56 83 58 / 20 0 10 30 Columbus 78 62 83 63 / 70 50 40 40 Gainesville 76 59 81 61 / 20 0 10 20 Macon 77 61 82 62 / 60 50 30 40 Rome 79 55 83 57 / 10 10 10 30 Peachtree City 77 58 82 60 / 60 20 20 40 Vidalia 79 65 83 65 / 60 70 40 30

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.