Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hatteras, NC

NEAR TERM /Overnight/
As of 10 PM Fri...No changes needed. Rain has dimished as expected, and only 20-30% chc in forecast rest of the overnight.

Prev disc
As of 707 PM Fri
Thunder threat has diminshed markedly with loss of diurnal heating, but large area of stratiform rain and showers is still present across much of ENC, so likely pops will cont through the early evening with slght chc thunder mention. As the night goes on, precip shield will shrink, but ocnl showers and perhaps a storm may be present across coastal counties with juicy atms remaining.

Prev disc
As of 300 PM Friday
Little change in the overall pattern through the short term with upper riding and the Bermuda high centered off the Southeast coast serving to advect a warm and moist airmass into the region. Several weak impulses are lifting over the ridge as a slow moving mid level low lifts ENEwd into the Ohio River Valley. Moderate instability with SBCAPE peaking around 2500-3000 J/Kg has allowed numerous showers and storm to develop across ENC late this morning and afternoon with the aid of the sea breeze front, lingering outflow boundaries. Bulk shear remains weak at only around 15 kt so storms have remained sub- severe but have seen gusts to around 40 mph. PWATs have surged to over 2" and heavy rainfall will be the primary threat from storms and could see localized flooding where storms training occurs.

Expect storms to wane through the evening with loss of sfc heating but could see isolated showers and storms through the overnight. Sufficient cloud cover should limit the fog threat tonight but could see patchy fog where heaviest rainfall occurs.
Temps will be mild with lows generally in the mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 330 PM Friday...Saturday looks to be a repeat of today with little change in the overall pattern and expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop with daytime heating.
Peak SBCAPE expected around 2500 J/Kg, bulk shear around 15-20 kt will limit the severe threat but PW values around 2"+ and weak storm motion will allow for a continued flooding rain threat and SPC continues to have the region in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Temps remain warm and humid with highs in mid 80s with a few locations potentially reaching the upper 80s before the convection initiates.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 0315 Friday...

Key Messages:

- Warm, Moist, Unsettled.

This weekend two sluggish systems inch toward the FA, a cold front sagging Sward from Great Lakes and a midlevel cutoff low dragging Eward from TX. Moisture content remains ample with PWATs AoA 2" in onshore flow through the bottom half of the column keeping mentionable PoPs in the forecast for the vast majority of the period. A local low along the boundary to the N located near DELMARVA rides the front Eward out to the Nern Atlantic Saturday, pulling moisture over the FA in its wake.
This is the first of three waves to travel Eward along the boundary, which is still forecast to remain just N of the FA through the period. Slow storm motions, potentially training storms, and plenty of moisture means localized flooding threat is on the table through the weekend, and therefore at least portions of the FA are in a Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding through the weekend. Nothing jumps off the page as impressive Severe wx wise Saturday, though there may be some more shear in play on Sunday which would support some better updraft organization. With that said, this time of year, should MUCAPEs be tapped into, cells capable of producing damaging winds aren't out of the question.

Early next week mid level trough approaches from the W with the offshore high holding strong keeping moisture and instability in place for more summer precip pattern forecasts, with best chances associated with seabreeze in afternoon and evenings becoming confined offshore nocturnally. The aforementioned front is forecast to remain N of the FA through the weekend and early week, but waves traveling along the boundary make details of the front's exact location a little tricky.

Once the midlevel shortwave has cleared the FA next week, the effects of the offshore ridging will reach further W, leading to more zonal flow aloft and a less dynamic pattern, at least briefly.

General warming trend in Ts through the long term, MaxTs in mid upper 80s maybe touching 90 and MinTs low 70s heating up to MaxTs in the low to mid 90s with MinTs in mid 70s by late next week.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 710 PM Friday...Numerous showers still linger acrs the terminal for the next hour or two, but thunder threat diminished rapidly with loss of diurnal heating/ Overnight, expect areas of IFR STCU to develop after midnight with highest probs at ISO and PGV, but cannot rule out at the coastal terminals as well.
Sub- VFR (MVFR) stratus will likely continue through mid morning as LCLs rise with plenty of low level moisture in place.
Saturday looks similar with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across rtes from late morning through the afternoon. Winds cont sswrly on Sat at 5-10 kt with some higher gusts in convection.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Monday/...
As of 0350 Friday...Unsettled conditions will prevail through the period, keeping diurnal showers and tstorms in the forecast each day. Expect periods of sub- VFR flight cats with gusty winds under showers/storms in afternoon and evening with early morning fog development possible for areas that see rain.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...The Bermuda High remains off the SE coast bringing SW winds around 10-15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft through Saturday morning. A weak low pressure area move along a stalled boundary across central VA will serve to tighten the gradients some Saturday afternoon with winds around 15-20 kt and could see occasional gusts to around 25 kt across the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound but not expected to be widespread enough to warrant SCA issuance at this time.

LONG TERM /Saturday night though Monday/...
As of 0400 Friday...Generally SW 10-15kt through the long term, strongest during peak heating, calming ever so slightly overnight. Sat may see some gusts approaching 25kt across PamSound in the afternoon. Typical summer- time precip pattern: offshore showers early AM, clearing afternoons, nocturnal showers and storms. Winds slightly stronger weekend, SWerly 15-20kt offshore.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.