Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Minnesott Beach, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 10 AM Wednesday...No significant changes needed with this update.

As of 7 AM Wednesday...Upper level ridge off the Southeast Coast will remain in place while a neutrally tilted upper trough in the Plains pushes E'wards nearing the Upper Midwest by this evening. At the surface, high pressure ridging remains centered offshore with a thermal trough setting up along the Coastal Plain. This will continue to promote SW'rly winds across the region and with good mixing could see some gusts up around 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the coast this afternoon and evening. However, the main concern remains the oppressive and dangerous heat and humidity. Dewpoints will remain in the mid 70s across ENC today, though did lower forecasted dewpoints by a degree or so given the latest guidance. In addition to this, temps will soar into the low to mid 90s. Combined with the high dewpoints, heat indices will reach 100-105 this afternoon and evening which will be near but not quite heat advisory criteria, though could see a few isolated areas with heat indices near 105-106 for an hour or so today. Even without ENC under an advisory, the heat risk will remain notable and anyone outside should take proper precautions and remain properly hydrated and have a plan to keep cool this afternoon.

Finally as we get into the afternoon, we could see a few isolated Seabreeze thunderstorms. Though coverage will certainly be less than previous days as forcing will be relegated to interactions between colliding sea/river/sound boundary's. With 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE but little to no shear, storms will remain disorganized for the most part but could see a non zero risk for a wet microburst today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/
As of 3 AM Wed...Upper ridge remains anchored offshore while previously mentioned upper trough continues E'wards into the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley tonight. At the surface, high pressure ridge remains centered offshore promoting clear to partly cloudy skies. But, warm and muggy conditions remain in place overnight. Temps only get down into the mid 70s this evening which won't offer much respite from the days heat.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 245 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday/Thursday evening

- Building heat next week

A notable cold front is forecast to move through the Carolinas Thursday into Thursday night. Ahead of this front, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing southwesterly winds, with gusts of 20-30 mph expected (strongest along the coast).
Within the warm, southwesterly flow, highs are expected to reach the low to mid 90s, with dewpoints holding in the low to mid 70s. This will continue to support a notable heat risk, as "feels like" temperatures reach the 100 to 105 degree range. The more mixed boundary layer will probably help to hold dewpoints down some, which should also prevent widespread "feels like" temperatures of 105+. Because of this, heat headlines are not planned at this time, but we will continue to re-evaluate this potential.

Meanwhile, strong heating of a moist boundary layer should yield moderate instability on the order of 1500-2500j/kg MLCAPE.
Deep layer shear is forecast to gradually increase as well, perhaps reaching 25-35kt. This shear/instability combination will be more than supportive of organized convection, including a risk of severe thunderstorms. A couple of caveats, though.
Warming temps aloft within the SW flow regime may lead to the development of a modest cap, which would offset initial convective potential along the seabreeze. However, should this cap not be realized, and if convection can develop along the seabreeze, there would be the potential for a few severe thunderstorms to develop capable of all hazards. What is more certain is convection developing along the advancing cold front, where forcing will be stronger, and which should help offset any modest cap. The 2nd caveat, though, is that the boundary layer should be stabilizing some once the front reaches our area. Given the forcing in play, I expect some severe risk will manage to survive into portions of ENC, even beyond sunset, but probably with a decreasing risk with time. Along the front, itself, it appears the primary hazards will be strong, to potentially damaging, wind gusts, with a lower risk of large hail and tornadoes.

After the initial cold front passage, a secondary front shifts south along the ENC coast on Friday and, if sufficient heating and destabilization can occur, could allow one more risk of thunderstorms before drier air aloft moves in.

Friday and Saturday will offer some reprieve from the heat and humidity, although not much. Attention then turns to the end of the weekend and next week as ridging aloft develops over the Eastern U.S., setting the stage for hot and humid conditions, with an increased heat risk. Beneath the ridge, the thunderstorm risk should remain at a minimum, even with the seabreeze.
Guidance differs some on how strong the ridge will be on the southern periphery around the Carolinas, and it's within the realm of possibility for a weakness in the ridge to develop, which could open the door for at least some convective potential. For now, though, the forecast will reflect dry and hot conditions.

AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Thursday afternoon/...
As of 1:20 PM Wednesday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the period with high pressure ridging over the area. Breezy southwesterly winds with gusts to 15-20 kt will persist this afternoon. Latest visible satellite imagery shows an expanding cu field as the seabreeze works its way inland.
The seabreeze will be the best forcing in town today, but confidence in anything more than an isolated shower or thunderstorm is low, so precip has been kept out of the 18z TAF cycle. Tonight, southwest winds will linger between 5-10 kt, keeping the boundary layer mixed enough to preclude any fog development. Tomorrow, gusty southwesterly winds will ramp up to 15-20 kt with PoPs remaining below mentionable through the end of the TAF period.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- Increased TSRA risk Thursday-Friday

- Gusty SW winds Thursday (20-25kt)

A cold front will move through with breezy southwest winds of 20- 25kt and an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. There will be an accompanying risk of sub VFR conditions with those SHRA and TSRA, as well as a risk of 40-50kt winds. A low end hail and tornado risk appears possible as well, mainly Thursday afternoon with any TSRA that develops on the seabreeze. The TSRA risk looks to continue into Friday before a period of drier conditions settles in over the weekend with a reduced TSRA risk.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Swrly winds of 10-20 kt continue this morning across just about all our waters. A few gusts to 25kt remain possible, primarily along the coastal waters S of Oregon Inlet and across the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. Thermal gradient increases today due to hotter pattern, and thus SCA winds are likely in the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds as wind gusts approach 25-30 kt. As we get into the evening the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet join the fray with widespread 15-20 kts winds and gusts up to 25 kts possible starting near sunset. As a result will be including these waters in a SCA on this mornings update. Outside of these waters 10-20 kt SW'rly winds will remain prevalent. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through the entire period. Conditions change little through tonight.

LONG TERM /Thursday though Sunday/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

- Hazardous conditions for small craft Thursday

- Increased thunderstorm risk Thursday-Friday

A notable cold front will move through the area Thursday-Friday with building winds and seas, an increased risk of thunderstorms, and hazardous conditions for small craft. Where thunderstorms occur, there will be an accompanying risk of 40-50kt winds, hail, and waterspouts. Behind the front, a surge of northeasterly winds develops on Friday, with one more potential round of scattered thunderstorms. Drier conditions and much lighter winds are then expected over the weekend with improving boating conditions. Seas are expected to peak in the 4-7 ft range on Thursday and Thursday evening, then gradually fall to 2-3 ft over the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ231.