Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neuse Forest, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 330 AM Sun...A welcome return to near normal temps are anticipated as high pressure situates off the se coast, and upper level ridging increases. Breezy conditions expected with winds gusts of 15 to 20 mph expected, a bit higher on the coast.
Low level thicknesses will support highs in the low to mid 60s most of ENC, to only the mid 50s on much of the OBX and beaches as onshore flow over cold waters is anticipated.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM Sun...Much milder night expected as swrly light breezes will be felt, and lows will generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, and only slightly higher on the beaches. Late tonight, inc clouds from the west as mid/upr isentropic ascent increases with approaching system. Any rain/showers will hold off until around or after daybreak Mon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- An unsettled pattern will develop Monday through Wednesday with beneficial rainfall possible Wednesday.
- Below normal temps return for the latter half of the work week.

Upper level flow becomes increasingly amplified across the CONUS through mid week as several northern stream shortwaves dig into the Plain states. A series of shortwave will move through Monday and Tuesday bring a chance for a few showers followed by an amplified upper trough and attendant cold front pushing across the region on Wednesday. Strong jet dynamics and frontal forcing combined with deep SW flow aloft advecting Gulf moisture feed across the region will likely bring beneficial rainfall amounts across much of the region Wednesday. Rainfall amounts Monday through Tuesday will likely be a quarter of an inch or less but probs for greater than 1 inch increases to 60-80 percent Wednesday. We will be in a high shear/low instability environment on Wednesday with 50+ kt 0-6km shear and less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE but current thinking is the threat for strong/severe storms will be quite limited. However, cannot rule out heavier precip bringing down strong winds from aloft.
Highs expected around 60 to mid 60s Monday with upper 60s to around 70 Tuesday and Wednesday.

Arctic high pressure builds back into the area late in the week with mainly sunny/clear skies and temps dropping well below normal once again with high in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s to 30s.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 2 AM Sun...VFR SKC through much of the TAF pd. High pressure will ease offshore through today, which will increase southwesterly winds to around 10 kt with ocnl gusts 15-18 kt this afternoon. Late tonight, inc mid/high cloud cover expected as a system approaches from the west.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...An unsettled pattern develops Monday through the middle of next week which will likely bring periods of sub-VFR conditions across rtes. The greatest chance for sub- VFR will be Wednesday ahead of a cold front that could bring gusty southerly winds and periods of moderate to heavy precip.
VFR will dominate Thursday with gusty NW winds gradually diminishing through the day.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Small craft conditions are likely to develop over the gulf stream waters where better mixing will be in place, however given the widespread water temps in the 40-50 degree range across the Pamlico/Albemarle Sounds and nearshore shelf waters, a shallow but strong marine inversion will preclude any winds aoa 25 kts. SCA's remain in effect for the coastal waters, with strongest winds to 30 kt expected for the waters off of Hatteras to Cape Lookout. Seas generally no higher than 3-5 ft, though some ocnl 6 ft sets possible outer ctrl waters in vcty of Diamond Shoals.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...High pressure will be centered offshore through most of the long term bringing S to SW winds 10-15 kt Monday through Tuesday, though may see up to 20 kt across portions of the waters Monday afternoon and evening as gradients tighten with a warm front lifting across the region. Seas will be around 2-4 ft through Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches Tuesday night and crosses the region late Wednesday and will see southerly winds increasing to strong SCA winds across most waters and Gales across parts of the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet where better mixing will occur near warmer Gulf Stream waters. Wave guidance showing seas building to 8-15 ft peaking ahead of the front on Wednesday. Winds become NW around 20-30 kt Wednesday night behind the front with winds and seas gradually diminishing late Wednesday night and Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ152- 154.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156- 158.