Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neuse Forest, NC

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 7 PM Tue...No significant changes to the forecast for tonight as there may be some coastal drizzle along the OBX but outside of that we generally remain dry tonight. Did hedge towards a clearer solution tonight given cloudcover appears to be eroding just off to the west but other than that left everything else alone as the forecast appears to be tracking well.

Prev Disc...Nrly winds relax and become light this evening with some clearing across Coastal Plain as drier air associated with incoming ridge begins to overspread the area as SFC low and trough aloft departs Eward. Dry overnight, with some ocnl sprinkles or drizzle along the OBX where clouds and shallow moisture will reside. MinTs mid50s inland, low 60s beaches.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
As of 3 PM Tue...High pres ridges into ENC, with a mix of sun and clouds. Best chance for bkn strato cu will be along/east of hwy 17, but no rain expected. It will be much warmer with a return of the sun, with highs in the mid 70s interior to around 70 coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 3 AM Tue...

Key Messages...

- After a warm and dry Wednesday, we will turn breezy and cooler later this week with highs below normal and lows bottoming out in the upper 30s/low 40s Friday and Saturday mornings

- Dry and breezy conditions continue through this weekend with above normal temps returning. Next chance of rain possible late Sunday into early Monday as a cold front moves through

Cooler airmass will move in Thursday and Friday (highs in the 60s) thanks to a reinforcing cold front. High pressure re- centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and then offshore Sunday signaling a return to above normal conditions.
The next chance of rain may come late Sunday night into early Monday as a quick moving and moisture-starved front moves across the Southeast.

AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wed/...
As of 7 PM Tue...Starting out the period with widespread MVFR ceilings across ENC with 1.5-2.5 kft cloud decks generally noted across the region outside of a few isolated patches of IFR along the OBX. Have a pretty sharp cutoff between MVFR and VFR conditions just to the west as skies rapidly clear just west of Duplin/Lenoir/Greene/Pitt/Martin Counties. Current trends suggest we will gradually clear from west to east tonight with PGV/ISO becoming VFR something between 01-03Z and EWN/OAJ and areas east likely taking a bit longer to clear out with MVFR conditions likely sticking around here until Wed morning before skies clear out. Once skies do clear out expect VFR conditions to persist through the rest of the period. 5-10kt NW'rly winds expected inland through the period with 10-20 kt N'rly winds with higher gusts expected across the OBX.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wed/...
As of 730 PM Tue...Will allow the SCA to end across the Albemarle Sound and Alligator River shortly and leave the rest of the marine products currently out alone as the forecast is tracking well tonight.

Prev Disc...Steady nrly breezes persist. SCA's all zones through this evening, then winds diminish below SCA for Albemarle/Alligator, with winds relaxing for Croatan/Roanoke sounds late tonight. Pamlico and coastal waters will remain in SCA conditions through Wed. Seas will generally be 5-8 ft through tonight and into Wed.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...

Key Messages

- A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least Friday with strong Small Craft conditions expected

As low pressure pulls away from the region, strong high pressure will build in from the NW, with a tight pressure gradient expected through most of the week. Winds will be NNW/N at 15-25 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds will subside quickly late Friday to 5-15 kts, and will become SW on Saturday. Seas will be 6-10 ft through Friday morning, and then subside to 5-7 ft.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 740 PM Tue...All coastal flood warnings have been dropped since the previous update. With conditions continuing to gradually ease have cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisories across Craven and Pamlico County as well and currently have Coastal Flood Advisories ongoing through tonight across the OBX and Downeast Carteret County. High surf advisory remains in effect north of Cape Hatteras through Wednesday.

Outer Banks: Now have a Coastal Flood Advisories out for the Outer Banks. The northern most Coastal Flood Advisory is for areas north of Oregon Inlet and currently extends out until Wed morning as large surf in the surf zone may cause some minor ocean overwash issues with tonight's high tide across areas with a more vulnerable dune structure.

Further south across Hatteras Island a combination of steady N'rly winds and the potential for some minor ocean overwash over the next few days will result in a threat for some minor (1-2 ft AGL) coastal flooding for both soundside and oceanside locations. Seas will gradually diminish over the next few days, though with long period swell still impacting the beaches and a compromised dune structure could see some minor oceanside level water rises through Thursday. Steady N'rly winds will also continue leading to at least a low end threat for some minor coastal flooding soundside as well into Thursday.

Finally across Ocracoke a steady N'rly wind will persist through Thursday resulting in a low end threat here for some soundside coastal flooding. Generally expecting 1 to 2 feet max of coastal flooding especially around the more vulnerable areas of Ocracoke.

Downeast Carteret: Coastal Flood Advisory remain in place, and an extended period of minor flooding (1-2 ft AGL) is anticipated due to steady northerly winds. Flooding may be worsened around high tide this week with minor flooding impacts lasting through at least Wednesday.

Finally high surf advisory continues for the beaches north of Cape Hatteras through at least Wednesday as seas should remain close to 6-9ft in the surf zone as winds gradually decrease and aforementioned low pulls away from the East Coast. On top of the higher seas, wave periods will be 10+ sec resulting in another round of powerful swell impacting the area potentially enhancing impacts to already weakened dune structures. The High surf advisory goes out until Wed evening but could be extended if needed.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ196-204- 205.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205.
Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NCZ203-205.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135-156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for AMZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ231.