Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dillard, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Messages:

1) Gusty SW to NW winds taper off overnight.

2) Generally inactive convective weather through the period.

2) Temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above normal.

As of 635 PM: A low amplitude upper trough will shift east of the area tonight, with rising upper heights forecast through the remainder of the period. Gusty winds will linger into the evening then taper off overnight. Cumulus is dissipating with loss of heating but cirrus continues to stream overhead, and will through the night. Lows expected to range from 55-60 across the mountains to lower/mid 60s elsewhere.

Convection-allowing models have been relatively consistent in dragging remnant convection originating over the Deep South toward western portions of the CWA after sunrise Sunday...but with little left of it other than showers or even sprinkles. PoPs will increase to slight chance across these areas during the morning. Otherwise, the air aloft will remain quite dry and mixing is expected to be relatively deep once any lingering cirrus from convective remnants thins out. As such, surface dewpoints are forecast to lower to the mid 50s to lower 60s across much of the area during the afternoon, generally limiting instability. However, a majority of the CAMs do allow isolated convection to develop across eastern portions of the Upstate...along convergent axes developing as a result of diversion of WNW flow around high mountain peaks...so 20-30 PoPs are carried in those areas by mid-afternoon. Max temps are forecast at around 5 degrees above climo.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday:

Upper ridging will build up the MS Valley as we move into the short term, with increasing amplitude in response to a depending low in the High Plains especially moving into Monday. Stationary front will stall out across the Carolinas through the period as the upper ridge slowly works its way east. Forecast area will remain well into the warm sector and with such high thicknesses, ensembles and operational guidance all in agreement with temperatures a good 5-8 degrees above seasonal normals.

Disturbances pushing through the mid-level flow with increasing dPVA both Monday and Tuesday afternoons will lead to at least some severe threat threat each afternoon as deep layer shear increases above 40kt and afternoon heating leads to increasing instability in the range of 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE. Some guidance hinting that 500mb temperatures might be a bit cooler on Tuesday afternoon, but hard to pin down those details this soon. Best pops will be in the mountains closer to the deeper moisture.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday:

Upper low pressure system will push towards the Great Lakes by the beginning of the extended, sweeping a cold front through the MS Valley and finally into our area by Wednesday. Plenty of uncertainty on timing as this front moves through, especially on potential overlap of pre-frontal instability and increasing deep-layer shear associated with the upper trough and surface low itself, which could be approaching 60kt. If shear/instability can be juxtaposed, severe risk would be higher, so this will have to be reevaluated given favorable time of day and continued above-normal temperatures in the warm sector.

NW flow moisture with the upper trough over the mountains will keep some showery conditions in the mountains on Thursday, with clearing into Friday. Much cooler post-frontal temperatures to finish off the extended, with temperatures Thursday afternoon at least 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday, and a good 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals. Might see some 30s at the higher elevations for overnight lows.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period. Cumulus is dissipating with loss of heating as cirrus continues to stream overhead. Can't rule out some fog in the mountain valleys Sunday morning, but this will be most likely in the valleys to the west and north of KAVL. Gusty WSW wind, WNW at KAVL, will continue into the evening then taper off overnight turning WNW, NNW at KAVL. Winds pick back up from the SW and become gusty by afternoon, NNW at KAVL.
Some cumulus is expected again with streaming cirrus. Diurnal thunderstorm chances return for the afternoon, although coverage is expected to be spotty.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous convective coverage is expected each afternoon Mon-Wed, with lesser coverage expected Thursday. Early morning fog/low stratus possible in the mountain valleys and locations where rain fell the previous afternoon/evening.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.