Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oriental, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 1010 PM Sun...No changes needed with late eve update.

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As of 7 PM Sun
No changes needed as fcst is on track.

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As of 3 PM Sunday
A shortwave trough diving across the Midwest this afternoon will push into the Mid- Atlantic region overnight while the attendant sfc low moves across PA into east central NY with the trailing cold front moves from the Ohio River Valley to east of the Appalachians by daybreak Monday. A very dry airmass remains in place with PW values around 0.5" and expect generally clear skies through the evening, however models do show some mid level moisture advection with PW increasing to around 1" and could see some mid level clouds across the region after midnight. Gradients tightening ahead of the front will maintain light SW winds which will keep the BL from completely decoupling and limiting radiational cooling. Lows tonight expected around 60 inland and mid to upper 60s closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
As of 315 AM Sun...The front is progged to push across ENC during the mid morning to mid afternoon hours but the column remains quite dry with only sct mid level clouds with no precip expected. Cold and dry air advection will ramp up after FROPA with PW values dropping back to around 0.5" by mid afternoon.
Temps will warm to the mid 70s to around 80 by early afternoon, then will begin to drop mid to late afternoon as CAA ramps up.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM Sun... A dry cold front pushes offshore Monday night while strong high pressure ridging gradually builds in from the west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ridging eventually becomes centered over the Eastern Seaboard late in the week continuing to bring cool but dry weather to eastern North Carolina.

Monday night through Wednesday...Broad troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard as a shortwave rounds the base of this trough and pushes offshore Mon night. At the surface, a cold front will quickly push off the coast by Mon night with dry weather and CAA continuing. Lows Mon night will be cooler as temps get into the upper 40s to 50s across ENC.

On Tuesday and Wednesday upper level troughing begins to sharpen and dig deeper into the Southeast as a much stronger shortwave rounds the base of the upper level trough. As this occurs, we will get some additional moisture and cloud cover streaming in from the north and west in association with the incoming shortwave. GFS/GEFS and as of recently the EPS have trended wetter over the last day or so for Wed. However, the ECMWF/Canadian, and NAM show a much drier atmosphere with this shortwave being starved for moisture before it moves out over the Gulf Stream and precip quickly develops well offshore. Given much of the guidance remains dry and NW'rly flow typically does not carry much moisture with it, elected to keep PoP's sub-mentionable but will need to monitor the trends in the coming days in case showers need to be added to the forecast on Wed.
Much cooler temps behind the front with highs only getting into the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows getting into upper 30s/40s inland and 50s along the OBX each night.

Thursday into the weekend...Upper troughing eventually pushes offshore Thurs and Fri as an upper level ridge builds in from the west. At the surface high pressure becomes centered over the Eastern Seaboard by Fri keeping things dry across ENC. Temps will gradually moderate into the weekend as well even under NE'rly flow as low level thicknesses creep up. Expect the coolest day to be Thursday with temps still in the 60s across the area but highs will quickly warm into the 70s by the weekend.

AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through 00Z Tuesday/...
As of 125 AM Mon...High confidence in VFR conditions through the period, but low-level wind shear threat persists pre-dawn.

VFR conditions prevail across area terminals this morning. Low pressure over the mid-Atlantic is dragging an attendant cold front across the Appalachians this hour, while aloft a 30-40 kt LLJ axis shifts over the region as a shortwave trough dives out of the midwest. The LLJ will present LLWS concerns pre-dawn, giving way to gustier conditions after sunrise with increasing mixing ahead of the cold front. Frontal boundary itself is forecast to cross late this morning, bringing with it a surge of northeasterly winds with gusts up to 20 kt, especially across the coastal plain. Winds ease overnight and may decouple in more sheltered spots, but the new airmass will be much too dry to support any fog risk.

LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sun...VFR conditions will continue through the entire period. Light NW'rly winds then persist through Wednesday, then shift to N'rly Thursday and Friday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 340 PM Sun...A cold front will approach the water overnight and cross during the day Monday. SW have begun to increase this afternoon in response to the tightening pressure gradients and are currently around 10-20 kt. Winds will peak around 15-25 kt after midnight tonight through Monday morning then will decrease back to 10-20 kt during the afternoon.
Seas currently around 2-3 ft with a dominant 13 sec long period swell but will build through the evening peaking around 4-7 ft late tonight into Monday morning, then decreasing back to 3-5 ft Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...A cold front will push well offshore Mon evening shifting the winds to a NW'rly direction from N to S at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25 kts early Mon evening before winds ease further Mon night down to 10-15 kts with gusts up near 20 kts. This will briefly end SCA's across our waters by late Monday evening, however a second round of SCA conditions will be possible Tue night as a second surge of NW'rly winds associated with an incoming trough will impact our waters before easing Wed into Thurs. Seas will remain around 4-6 ft into Mon night before lowering to 2-5 ft by Tue.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.