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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 1124 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Rest of today..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Waves flat.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves flat.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers likely.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers likely.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the evening, then becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the evening, then diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers in the morning.

AMZ100 1124 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure will remain centered over the carolinas today, gradually sliding off the coast tonight. A series of low pressure systems will impact the area Friday into early next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 301630 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1130 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain centered over the Carolinas today, gradually sliding off the coast tonight. A series of low pressure systems will impact the area Friday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1130 AM Thu...Only some cirrus streaming across the area late this afternoon as temps have climbed into the lower to mid 50s across the area. Have bumped highs up a degree or two, with several locations likely ending up around 60 this afternoon, with highs more in the mid 50s across NE NC. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains in good shape.

Previous Discussion...Latest analysis shows 1025mb high pressure centered over the Carolinas this morning. Today begins the grad warming trend as flow becomes more southerly and heights build. After a cool start this morning, highs will climb into the mid to upper 50s. Sct mid and high clouds through the day.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
As of 150 AM Thu...High pressure will continue to slide off the coast overnight as low pressure system moves into the Mid-West and weak coastal trough develops along the NC coast. It should be a much milder night with increasing clouds. Lows in the mid/upper 30s inland and 40s for the beaches. Coastal trough may bring some light showers to the Outer Banks after midnight.
Increased pops slightly from previous forecast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 3:30 AM Thursday...The long term pattern is warmer than average and unsettled with multiple opportunities for rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder.

Friday - Saturday...The long term begins with a southeast ridge and multiple mid-level shortwaves passing over the area. At the surface, a warm front will be stretched across the NC coast. This front, along with strong mid and upper-level winds, could be enough forcing to support showers across ENC on Friday. PoP chances will be higher on Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. A slight chance of thunder is also possible along the immediate coast. Highs will be around 60-70.

Sunday...Heights fall as an upper trough approaches from the west and a mid-level trough moves across the Ohio River Valley.
A surface low will move northeast across the Great Lakes and drag a cold front across ENC late Sunday into Monday and bring increased PoPs and chances for thunder. Highs will be 60-70 once again.

Monday...A much stronger upper jet moves overhead as the gradient tightens between a southeast ridge and another trough moving east.
These features, along with a surface trough, will support continued slight chance to chance PoPs. Temps will be a few degrees cooler behind the front (low 60s) and will continue to gradually cool down through the rest of the week.

Tuesday - Wednesday...Things become more quiet behind Monday's surface trough and will remain dry through the rest of the period.
Highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s-40s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 625 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with sct mid and high clouds and light winds. Ceilings begin to lower late tonight, especially along the coast as weak coastal trough develops. There is potential for patchy fog to develop late tonight and early Friday morning, though confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this time.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3:45 AM Thursday...Multiple chances for sub-VFR conditions are possible during the long term. There will be chances for rain each day, but Saturday and Sunday pose the best risk for heavier showers and a few rumbles of thunder (especially nearer to the coast). Winds will generally be southerly to southwesterly 5-10 kt with stronger gusts (15-20 kt) on Monday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 625 AM Thu...Latest obs show WNW-WSW winds 5-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft. High pressure will remain centered over the waters today, gradually sliding offshore tonight as low pressure approaches from the west and coastal trough develops along the NC coast. W/NW winds surge 10-15 kt early this morning will diminish by mid morning with winds becoming more variable 10 kt or less. Winds overnight remain a bit challenging and heavily dependent on where trough sets up, likely varying from NE-SW 5-15 kt. Seas 1-3 ft through the period.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3:45 AM Thursday...Winds will be southerly to southwesterly at 10-20 kt through Sunday. On Monday, SSW winds increase from south to north through the day reaching 20- 25 kt with gusts around 30 kt by Monday night. Seas will be 2-4 ft Friday and increase to 3 to 5 ft Sunday through Monday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Thu -- 04:23 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:37 AM EST     2.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:24 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:57 PM EST     1.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
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Thu -- 05:45 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:36 AM EST     2.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:46 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:56 PM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,