Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oriental, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Near record temperatures possible today.

2) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through next week.

3) Cold front to bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, followed by much cooler and drier conditions early next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temperatures are expected today thanks to warm southwesterly low-level flow beneath notably strong ridging aloft. This will equate to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Please see the CLIMATE section below for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-4" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). Unusually warm conditions and persistent ridging aloft will only act to exacerbate drought conditions, with the only meaningful rainfall coming on Sunday, which only looks to be about 1/4" or less across the forecast area.

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Strong SW winds ahead of this weekend's cold front quickly switching to strong N winds behind the front could be problematic, especially for any fire starts. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Tomorrow, the persistent ridging of late is forecast to briefly break down long enough to allow a cold front to move through the Carolinas. There will be just enough low- level moisture advection ahead of the front to support a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, highest along the coast and offshore. However, this morning's model suite continues to dwindle excitement for tstorm chances and rainfall accumulations over the bulk of the FA. Current forecast calls for around a tenth of an inch for most mainland areas for FROPA with highest amounts along the immediate and portions of OBX receiving slightly more, one or two tenths. While instability will likely be modest closer to the coast and offshore, the bulk of the FA will not have enough insolation ahead of the front which will be on our Wern border shortly after sunrise. Deep layer shear of 30-50kt would be supportive of organized convection if deep updrafts can form, though this seems unlikely. We'll continue to monitor this potential.

Behind the cold front, a substantially cooler and drier airmass will move into the region, with local highs dropping back down closer to what is normal for this time of year. This means highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows dropping back down into the 40s to start the new week. Warming from 80/mid 50s split WED through the remainder of the work-week with high pressure taking control again.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions expected to prevail through tonight with diurnal Cu dissipating after sunset. SW winds will keep the lower levels mixed as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front, which should preclude fog development. HRRR shows a 20-40% probability for sub-VFR stratus along the coast but it is less than 20% at the TAF sites. Cigs lower Sunday morning with SW winds gusting around 20-25 KT. The front is expected push through the area late Sunday morning through early afternoon with winds shifting to NW and gusts around 25-30 kt.
Mainly post-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms push across rtes Sunday afternoon with a period of sub-VFR conditions possible.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to return by Sunday evening with high pressure building into the area. Pred VFR expected most of next week but could see patchy late night, early morning fog at some terminals.

MARINE
Winds are generally S/SWerly 10-15 kt with seas generally 2-3 ft through the remainder of the evening.

SUN a strong cold front with scattered showers/thunderstorms will move through the Carolinas.

SWerly winds begin to strengthen overnight as the front approaches with early morning winds around 15-20G25-30kt, highest along the Gulf Stream waters. Through the day SUN, the front moves through area waters, with winds rapidly switching from SWerly to Nerly. The Nerly post frontal surge will bring a quick hitting threat of wind gusts 25-35 knots with higher end of guidance suggesting wind gusts around 40 knots, especially over Gulfstream and offshore waters. Given the short duration of gale force gusts over coastal waters, have opted to keep active SCAs in place, but have mentioned gale gust wording in latest MWW additional details. This afternoon, the remaining inland waters have been covered with SCAs, as well as Sern coastal waters, all of which are for the strong Nerly surge.
Have also issued a gale warning for offshore waters covering from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet from 20-60nm. Though gusts of 35-40kt are possible over all offshore waters, the duration was not quite long enough to warrant gale headline issuance elsewhere.

With the stronger winds, seas will also be quick to build Sunday. 3-4 ft early SUN AM becoming 4-5 ft Sunday late morning with some 6 ft possible. The post frontal Nerly winds will further build seas to 5-10 ft, highest along the Gulf Stream and offshore waters.

In addition to the elevated winds and seas, some scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this front.
Highest confidence is along the warm Gulf Stream waters, where instability is the highest. Ample deep wind shear brings the the threat of well structured updrafts capable of producing strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Inland sounds/rivers will have less instability to play with, so probabilities of strong tstorms is less, but still not zero.

Outlook: Winds and seas quickly decrease Monday, but a weaker back door cold front coming through TUE brings another round of strengthening WSWerly winds to become Nerly 15-25 knots.
Another back door cold front approaches the Carolinas late-week bringing shifting and elevated winds.

CLIMATE
Record High temps for 4/18 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 93/2002 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 85/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 92/2002 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 92/1976 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131- 136-137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.
Gale Warning from 3 PM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ182-184.