Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairfield Harbour, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 2 PM Thu...ENC will remain under cyclonic flow today,winds have switched to the west as troughing deepens across interior VA/NC. Dry conditions over land will prevail as very dry air pushes into the low and mid levels. Downslope westerly winds have helped push temps into the low to mid 80s, winds have been gusting as high as 30 mph briefly this afternoon during peak mixing. By late this afternoon and into the evening a few showers or even a thunderstorm may develop along a pinned sea breeze as strong forcing from the upper level trough moves overhead. Working against this outcome will be the very dry air at the surface, where we could see 30+ degree dewpoint depressions. However, on the ocean side of the pinned sea breeze, dewpoints should surge back into the 60s, and this may be enough surface moisture for isolated convection to develop over nearshore waters.

An upper level trough will remain over the southern Mid- Atlantic tonight with a very dry airmass persisting over ENC. A secondary/reinforcing cold front will move through overnight, with little impacts other than a wind shift to the NW. Some radiational cooling is possible early tonight, but expect conditions to be mixed after midnight. Still, a cooler airmass moving in will yield lows in the low to mid 50s, and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
As of 2 PM Thu...Dry westerly flow continues Friday as high slowly moves into the region. Highs in the mid to upper 70s, with some spots maybe reaching 80 degrees and mostly clear skies.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 310 PM Thu...Update: Inc pops on Sun/Sun night as compact shortwave swings through. 22/12Z ECM consistent on this soln, and have inc pops to 40-60% pops, highest overnight Sun night.
Also, lower overnight lows Fri night through Sat night, as cool/dry airmass in place lead to good rad cooling, and therefore sided with cooler guidance. Some protected areas will dip down into the upper 40s, with most areas in the 50-55 degree range.

As of 340 AM Thursday...

Seasonably cooler through the first half of weekend with weak high pressure overhead. Pattern returns to unsettled early next week as a weak boundary sets up across the Southeastern U.S. coast.

By Friday, an anomalous upper low will setup over New England.
Within this regime, a persistent northwesterly flow aloft and offshore flow at the surface should support several days of temperatures a few degrees below normal for late May. Guidance suggests highs only in the mid to upper 70s during this time through Sunday, with lows in the low to mid 50s. Of note, some of the coldest guidance suggests lows may fall into the upper 40s in the typically colder spots away from bodies of water.
Given the dry airmass in place, do not anticipate afternoon showers through Saturday. By Sunday afternoon, daytime heating combined with light southerly flow and a weak sea-breeze boundary could lead to a few diurnally-driven showers, though capping PoPs at slight chance for now.

Early next week...Behind the low aloft departing to the NE, weak ridging takes shape ahead of the next system digging across CONUS. Warm front aloft extending from the approaching low lift northward through the area late Sunday afternoon/night. Wide range of model solutions given the plethora of smaller scale details in play with the progression of this next system so details are fuzzy at best; key take away is period is warmer (back into the 80s) and wetter from late Sunday into Wednesday when a stalled boundary may setup across the Carolinas with weak surface lows traversing the area from west to east.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday Morning/...
As of 2 PM Thu...VFR conditions continue through the period.
Good mixing this afternoon is bringing wind gusts to of 25-30 mph. After sunset, winds become 5-10 kt, still from the W/NW and skies remain generally clear. A dry cold front moves through tonight, bringing a brief period of wind shear concerns around midnight. This has been mentioned in TAFs for all TAF terminals. Friday, another day of great mixing as winds out of the west gust up to 25 mph while skies remain mostly clear.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 340 AM Thursday....A dry airmass should support mostly VFR conditions into the weekend. Next best chance for sub-VFR conditions across Eastern NC will be Sunday afternoon into early next week as a stalled boundary sets up across the Carolinas with warming dew points and unsettled weather.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 215 PM Thu...Small craft conditions are developing this afternoon as W winds are bringing gusts up to 25-30kts for northern sounds and northern coastal waters. Soon, a more SW flow makes an appearance and strengthen to 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts and seas 4-6 ft across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. A dry cold front moves through tonight, briefly switching winds to become NW gusting up to 25 kts. Marine conditions will be improving for all waters before sunrise, becoming headline free by 9Z. Mixing in the afternoon tomorrow could bring infrequent gusts of 25 kts to inland waters, but with a lack of confidence and less support compared to today, at this point I have elected to not issue SCA for Friday.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...

Winds remain generally westerly 10-20kt Friday and W to northwesterly through Saturday. Winds return to southerly late Sunday ahead of a stalled boundary across the NC waters through early next week. Weak areas of low pressure may cross the waters from west to east Monday into Tuesday, however winds should remain below SCA levels.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 150-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.