Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indian Trail, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from Noon to 8 PM for northeast Georgia and a Special Weather Statement is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM for most of western North Carolina (outside the northern mountains). Burn bans remain in effect until further notice across the Carolinas. Any fire that develops will catch and spread quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.
2. A Freeze Warning is in effect for the Northern North Carolina mountains and a Frost Advisory in effect for the majority of the North Carolina mountains (outside the Freeze Warning), the northern North Carolina Foothills, and the northern North Carolina Piedmont from midnight tonight through 9 AM Tuesday. Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
3. Temperatures return to above normal during the latter half of the week, while very dry conditions continue. Very low-to- critical afternoon RH will enhance the fire danger through the end of the work week. A frontal system will bring rain chances next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Key message 1: A Red Flag Warning is in effect from Noon to 8 PM for northeast Georgia and a Special Weather Statement is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM for most of western North Carolina (outside the northern mountains). Burn bans remain in effect until further notice across the Carolinas. Any fire that develops will catch and spread quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Rainfall remained sparse outside the northern North Carolina mountains yesterday. Thus, very dry fuels remain in place across the rest of the GSP CWA Minimum relative humidity will fall to around 30% across the North Carolina mountains and below 25% east of the mountains. Wind gusts up to 30 mph can be expected across the North Carolina mountains, with gusts up to 25 mph east of the mountains.
With the return of low humidity, gusty winds, and ongoing drought, fire concerns will return again today.

A Red Flag Warning was issued for northeast Georgia for this afternoon and early evening as gusty winds, low relative humidity, and fuel moisture falling to 8% or less may lead to extreme fire behavior. Any fire that develops will catch and spread quickly.
Outdoor burning is not recommended.

A Fire Danger Statement was issued for most of western North Carolina (outside the northern mountains) for late this morning through early this evening as low humidity, gusty winds, and dry fuels could increase the potential for wildfires.

With burn bans in effect until further notice across the Carolinas, open burning of any kind is illegal.

Key message 2: A Freeze Warning is in effect for the Northern North Carolina mountains and a Frost Advisory in effect for the majority of the North Carolina mountains (outside the Freeze Warning), the northern North Carolina Foothills, and the northern North Carolina Piedmont from midnight tonight through 9 AM Tuesday. Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Clear skies combined with light winds will lead to great radiational cooling conditions Monday night into daybreak Tuesday. The coldest temperatures are expected across the North Carolina mountains, the northern North Carolina Foothills, and the northern North Carolina Piedmont. With the northern North Carolina mountains having the best potential to see lows fall near to below freezing Monday night, the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freeze Warning. A Frost Advisory was issued elsewhere across the North Carolina mountains tonight into early Tuesday morning (with the exception of the Polk mountains due to the thermal belt), the northern North Carolina Foothills, and the northern North Carolina Piedmont tonight into Tuesday morning as areas of frost should develop. Confidence on frost development is higher across the North Carolina mountains as well as Burke and Caldwell counties and lower across the rest advisory area as very dry air in place could limit frost formation.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. In-ground sprinkler systems should be drained. Remove hoses and cover above- ground pipes.

Key message 3: Temperatures return to above normal during the latter half of the week, while very dry conditions continue. Very low-to- critical afternoon RH will enhance the fire danger through the end of the work week. A frontal system will bring rain chances next weekend.

An upper trough will remain centered off the East Coast through the end of the week, while a high-amplitude ridge will steadily progress toward the eastern Conus through Thursday before de-amplifying/ breaking down. This upper air pattern will support a persistent, albeit weakening low level ridge across the East that will maintain a dry air mass through at least Friday. Meanwhile, temperatures will warm under rising heights aloft and as the mid-spring sun modifies the air mass, with max temps Wed thru Fri forecast to be generally 7- 11 degrees above normal. While dewpoints will be modifying as well, afternoon RH is still forecast to be mostly in the 20-30% range through Friday. Winds will not be much of a factor during this time frame, but the hot, dry conditions within a steadily worsening drought situation will result in continuation of unseasonably high fire danger.

The global models generally agree that a pattern change is in the offing for the weekend/early next week, but the details (not surprisingly) of said pattern change remain very much up in the air.
Therefore, uncertainty abounds in terms of the sensible weather forecast for next weekend. Nevertheless, signals in deterministic and ensemble guidance are adequate to advertise increasing rain chances beginning Saturday. Temperatures remain well-above normal through Saturday, but begin a slight downward trend Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry through the 12Z TAF period.
Mostly clear skies are expected, outside of some cirrus passing overhead this afternoon. Winds will remain mostly calm through daybreak before gradually increasing in speed through the afternoon.
Winds east of the mountains will pick up out of the WSW/SW around daybreak ahead of a dry cold front, shifting northwest behind front this afternoon. Winds should pick up out of the WNW/NW at KAVL around daybreak. Gusty winds return by mid-morning, especially at KAVL. KAVL will see gusts from 20-28 kts, with terminals east of the mountains seeing gusts from 18-24 kts. Wind gusts will gradually taper off around sunset, with lighter wind speeds returning through tonight. Winds east of the mountains will gradually turn turn NE this evening into tonight.

Outlook: VFR and dry through the workweek thanks to high pressure.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ033-049-050.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-501>507.
SC...None.