Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indian Trail, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1. Widespread rainfall tapers off through this evening across most of the area, as drier air returns behind the system.
2. Dry with a warming trend starting Monday with near record temperatures by Thursday and Friday. Shower chances creep back into the forecast by the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Widespread rainfall tapers off through this evening across most of the area, as drier air returns behind the system.

As an area of low pressure continues to progress eastward, most of the steadier rain has moved off to the east, but other areas have developed. One broad band associated with DPVA and lingering low level upglide aligned with I-85 east of GSP will push off to the northeast through mid-evening. If we are to get any kind of nuisance flooding over the western Piedmont, this would be the culprit. Meanwhile, a band of light rain associated with frontogenesis to the north of the low will move in across the mountains and eventually weaken by late evening. The latest HRRR suggests it should all taper off by midnight or so. Behind the low, drier air moves into the area and quickly clears out any remnant precipitation and cloud cover. Given the ongoing drought conditions, not anticipating hydro issues outside of some ponding on roadways during heavier periods of rainfall. Overnight lows will be only five degrees or so below where temps are right now. Expect a quick rebound behind the system with dry conditions and temps in the 60s to start the week.

Key message 2: Dry with a warming trend starting Monday with near record temperatures by Thursday and Friday. Shower chances creep back into the forecast by the weekend.

The timing of the influx of deep layered dry air remains on track for Monday with sunshine returning boosting maximums to 8-10 deg F above the mid-February climo. Upper heights atop the SE CONUS will rise on Tuesday, with the cwfa remaining under flat ridging aloft though the end of the workweek. With continued warming expected, near record high temperatures may be reached both Thursday and Friday. Token small shower chances have been introduced for Thursday as despite being parallel to the upper flow, weak baroclinic zone may dip just far enough south to support the slight chance pop. Shower chances tick upward Friday into Saturday as an upper trough axis swinging across the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley helps to push boundary into and eventually through the cwfa, ushering a return to seasonable temperatures for next Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Still dealing with widespread IFR/LIFR restrictions early this evening, but some improvement to MVFR was already underway over parts of the Upstate, and that trend should continue through the evening as the main precip moves eastward and the back edge of the precip associated with the frontogenesis band on the north side of the mid/upper low also translates eastward. Most locations should see a fairly quick improvement to MVFR then VFR by 05Z to 07Z or so. Either way, the restrictions should end before the start of morning ops everywhere but KAVL, where fog could persist. Wind will remain mostly northerly as the low pressure center moves past to our south. All terminals should be VFR from mid-morning onward on Monday.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions persist through the end of the week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.