Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Indian Trail, NC

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:12PM Monday November 30, 2020 11:46 AM EST (16:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:32PMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indian Trail, NC
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location: 35.07, -80.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 301524 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1024 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. As a strong low pressure system moves northeast toward New England and away from our region, breezy northwesterly wind will bring much colder air through Tuesday. Snow is expected to develop in the mountains near the North Carolina and Tennessee border through Tuesday. Another strong low may cross the region at the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1015 AM: Drying behind the front, amplified by downsloping flow off of the mountains continues to scour out remaining cloud cover east of the mountains with most of the immediate post frontal shower activity now east of the area. Now onto the prolonged northwest flow snow event. Temperatures are now crashing through the 30s across the southwest mountains with most mountain locations likely to reach the 30s by late afternoon or early evening. Snow levels have started to fall with snow observed already at least down to around 4K feet near the Smokies, likely lower right near the TN border. Cloud top temperatures of -5 to -7 C seem to match the rain/snow transition fairly well at this time, although steeper lapse rates during the afternoon may bump this value down by a degree C or two. It seems the best forcing/moisture and even limited instability line up for the best snowfall intensity late this afternoon through this evening when we may see snow squall conditions set up across the mountains, focused near the TN border. Periods of moderate to heavy snow, blowing snow, and gusty winds will likely lead to hazardous travel conditions during this timeframe. Can't rule out a narrow band of short lived rain/snow showers developing east of the mountains along an area of lee convergence early this evening, mainly near the NC/SC border. The main question is will there be sufficient moisture in spite of the downsloping flow at low levels. Will look at adding low end PoPs for this area with the next update. Current winter products look well placed.

Otherwise, some clouds will break containment and spread across the foothills and piedmont, especially downstream of any convergence zones created by gaps in the escarpment. Some guidance even suggests and isolated rain or snow shower could develop in these zones. Will leave any mention out for now. Westerly winds pick up behind the front and become gusty across the area which continue at least through the evening and maybe even overnight. Should be an early high near or above normal with temps falling through the afternoon. Lows will be below normal.

For the mountains, the initial showers will end with the morning passage of the cold front. Temps will fall much earlier, especially across the higher elevations of the Smokies, then across all the higher elevations. Valleys will remain relatively warm with nearly steady or slowly falling temps until afternoon. Deep NW flow moisture and good upslope flow, along with some weak instability and upper divergence, will lead to a NW flow snow event for the TN border counties. Expect snow to begin in the Smokies this morning with snow moving up the spine of the Appalachians through the day. Snow levels will drop to the valleys by afternoon. Given the amount of moisture and forcing, will convert the watch to a high elevation warning and low elevation advisory. Snowfall totals of 4 to 6 inches will be common across the warning area with up to 8 inches near Sam's Gap, over the Smokies, and even the high elevations of Graham County. The lower elevations will average 2 inches but could see isolated higher amounts. Will keep Buncombe out of any winter products for now as most of the populated areas will see less than an inch; however, the higher elevations along the parkway near the Black Mountains will see accumulations. Very gusty winds develop over the higher elevations with some higher elevation locations seeing wind chill values around 0. Lows in the valleys will generally bottom out around 20 degrees or higher.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 200 AM Monday: Snow will be the topic of discussion to start out the short term. NW-ly moisture advection gradually weaves out starting at daybreak Tuesday along the NC-TN border and the spine of the Blue Ridge. This will put an end to the snow in the mountains by sunset at the very latest, but even just some shallow low-level moisture will keep light snow going in the favorable NW upslope locations along the northern tier through the afternoon. Expect snow totals to be 4-6+" above 3500 ft with a substantial drop off at any elevation level below that. After the snow tapers off, the real weather story will be the deep cold air that filters in across the entire cwa. With steady caa and low thicknesses, expect temperatures to take a huge dip Tuesday and Tuesday. Readings will be in the order of 10+ degrees below normal for this time of the year. 20s and 30s for highs in the higher terrain and 40s elsewhere, while min temps drop into the 10s and low 20s in the mountains with mid and uppers 20s east of the mountains. By the middle part of the week, the cwa should begin to moderate as the upper low ejects to the northeast and shortwave ridging builds in from the west. Sfc high will control the overall weather pattern and keeps the area dry through the rest of the period. Another upper low will be knocking on our doorsteps with increasing clouds and waa by 12Z Thursday, but should stray away from impacting the short-term period with any precip at this time.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 300 AM Monday: Sfc high continues to influence the beginning portions of the medium range. Conditions begin to deteriorate late Thursday into Friday as an upper low swings in from the mid MS Valley. The GFS continues to be more progressive than the ECMWF, but they are in agreement with the overall set up. PoPs are in the forecast due to the upper low and attendant frontal boundary during the last day of the work week. The ECMWF run would suggest keeping PoPs going into the first half of the day on Saturday. Where the global models begin to diverge is timing and what happens over the weekend. The GFS carries a secondary upper low across the southern and central Plains and pushes into the area on Sunday, but low-level support for any precip will be minimal. The weekend looks mostly dry with the exception of day 7 when the upper low is projected to be ejected offshore by an upper trough that digs into the eastern CONUS. This setup could be favorable for another rain/snow event for the mountains, but is way too far out for a confident solution. Temperatures will remain slightly below-normal for the duration of the extended.

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: Line of convection will move east of KCLT and KHKY before 14Z. Until then, expect IFR cigs and TEMPO IFR vsby in variably gusty winds. LLWS will is also expected at KCLT as the strong low level jet passes by. Elsewhere improving vsby and cigs with only a passing light shower this morning. Winds become WSW and gusty through the morning and continue through into the evening then diminishing after midnight. KAVL will see NNW wind becoming gusty and continuing through the night. Low level VFR clouds will spread back across the foothills and piedmont during the afternoon into the evening before clearing again. Low clouds and a very light snow shower may move up the valley to KAVL tonight, but chance too low for the TAF for now.

Outlook: Windy conditions linger into Tuesday, with low cigs and snow showers possible in the mountains as well. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.

Confidence Table .

15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z KCLT High 85% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 95% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 81% High 93% High 98% High 100% KHKY Med 78% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 96% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 98% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . Winter Weather Advisory below 3500 feet until noon EST Tuesday for NCZ033-048>052-058. Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet until noon EST Tuesday for NCZ033-048>052-058. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . RWH NEAR TERM . Munroe/RWH SHORT TERM . CAC LONG TERM . CAC AVIATION . RWH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 51 mi77 min W 6 G 16 64°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 74 mi27 min WSW 20 G 31 55°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC5 mi54 minWSW 23 G 3010.00 miOvercast and Windy59°F52°F78%1001.5 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi55 minSW 17 G 2310.00 miOvercast54°F51°F90%1000.9 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC21 mi53 minWSW 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast55°F51°F87%1001.5 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC22 mi1.9 hrsSW 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast61°F55°F83%1000.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEQY

Wind History from EQY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE536NE5NE3NE5NE3NE6NE5NE7
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1 day agoNE645CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE6NE4NE5NE3NE3E4
2 days agoW4N6NE4CalmSW6SW4SW4CalmSW7SW3CalmW3SW5SW4SW3CalmNW3W3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station Columbia, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.