Saturday, August24, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Indian Trail, NC

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:02PM Saturday August 24, 2019 12:18 AM EDT (04:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:08PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indian Trail, NC
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location: 35.07, -80.68     debug

Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 240219
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
1019 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

A cold front is expected to slowly sink south across the forecast
area tonight into Saturday morning. Showers will persist on
Saturday as a wedge of cool high pressure builds into the region
behind the front. Fewer showers are expected Sunday into Monday
as the high pressure strengthens and persists. Showers and
thunderstorms return for Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures
rebound ahead of the next cold front. Drier weather is possible
behind the front to end the work week.

Near term through Saturday
As of 1000 pm edt Friday: mainly another round of updates to pops to
lower them some more during the early overnight, but to raise them
again across the NW piedmont later in the overnight hours with cams
bringing more showers into the region with the wedge front. Other
grids still looking good for now.

Otherwise, expect the strong convection to diminish but shower
activity will likely linger as confluent flow upstream of a trough
over the great lakes drives a sfc high in our direction. This keeps
the pushing the cold front south in "backdoor" fashion. Low-level
flow will veer to easterly by early Saturday. The combination will
provide added lift, so pops remain fairly high chance throughout the
night. Stratus will settle in across the area as well. Lows will be
above normal.

Cold air damming settles in across the area Saturday as the high
wedges in from the northeast and the front stalls just to our south.

Copious low level moisture and easterly flow will keep low clouds
across the area through the day. Showers will be numerous as well
with thunderstorms limited to the mountains and the area along and
south of i-85. The severe threat diminishes as instability is weak
and dcape lacking. Highs will be well below normal with most areas
below 80 degrees. The exception will be the upper savannah river
valley where mid 80s linger.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
As of 245pm edt Friday: with increasing confidence in the passage
of the wedge front earlier on Saturday, Sunday looks to be solidly
cool and cloudy with periods of light rain and drizzle across
the area, as high pressure funnels anomalously cool and stable
air into the region. Models have oscillated on the strength and
exact orientation of the low-level fetch of moist atlantic air
above the wedge for Sunday and Monday, with the overnight guidance
weaker and the latest 12z guidance stronger with the 900-850mb
flow out of the ene. Nevertheless, low-level convergence and
weak isentropic lift will persist at least into Monday morning
which will maintain periods of light rain and drizzle, especially
across the favorable eastward facing slopes along the blue ridge
escarpment and the adjacent foothills. Confidence is increasing
that the wedge of high pressure, centered near maine, will be
reinforced Sunday night into Monday morning by the developing
area of low pressure near S fl, as guidance continues to lift the
low north along the atlantic coast. Counterclockwise flow around
the low as it parallels the north carolina coast on Monday would
strengthen northeasterly flow within the wedge while weak subsidence
associated with the periphery of the low is forecasted to reduce
pops east of the blue ridge and foothills during the day Monday.

Aloft, the region is on the southern edge of an evolving omega
block, which begins to break down later Monday in response
to height falls over the ohio valley ahead of our next system.

Max temps will bottom out 8-10 degrees below normal on Sunday and
will rebound somewhat on Monday (though still 3-6 degrees below
normal) with the shortwave ridge aloft and the resultant loss of
cold air advection within the wedge.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 245pm edt Friday: overall the forecast has changed little
for the middle and end of the work week next week, with the next
system approaching from the west on Tuesday and frontal passage
expected sometime on Wednesday. The high pressure wedge will
breakdown overnight Monday in response to height falls aloft and
the coastal departure of an area of low pressure. Modest elevated
instability (<500 j kg sbcape; 1000-1500 j kg mucape) returns
for Tuesday across the mountains with some drying of the column
and slightly more favorable lapse rates associated with a weak
shortwave trough. However, there will be plenty of details to
sort out in the days ahead because the stabilizing influence
of the coastal low may continue to counter the weak trough,
especially across the eastern counties, where current forecasted
profiles remain stable. Therefore, the current call for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday will likely be
refined as confidence evolves.

Nevertheless, a weak cold front is progged to move through
the forecast area on Wednesday, with decent model agreement on
timing and shower and thunderstorm coverage, which again, is not
terribly impressive. There remains disagreement between the gfs
and the ECMWF on precip chances for Thursday afternoon behind the
front with the GFS remaining unsettled despite agreement that the
front will stall along the atlantic coast. This is the opposite
of the overnight solutions. For now, the forecast trends drier
on Thursday. Complications continue into Friday as the guidance
tries to develop low pressure along the stalled coastal front.

Easterly flow and an in situ wedge may return to end the work week,
but there will be plenty of time for this to change.

Southerly (return) flow will be slow to return on Tuesday but with
no connection to cooler air and greater insolation, temperatures
are expected to recover a bit more with highs just 2-4 degrees
below normal. Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures
return by Wednesday in advance of the approaching cold front.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
At kclt and elsewhere: still some convection impacting kclt and have
continued tempo tsra there through 01z, but should be moving out
with mostly vcsh shra thereafter, though cannot completely rule out
isolated -tsra. As we move into tonight, cad will begin to develop,
with MVFR to ifr CIGS pushing in from NE to SW overnight, and expect
restrictions to remain during the day tomorrow. Guidance keeps
kclt khky ifr all day, other sites have at least some improvement to
MVFR. Confidence low on coverage of any tsra that might develop due
to the stabilizing nature of the cad, so continued mention of prob30
tsra for kand only, with vcsh or shra elsewhere. SW winds at taf
time for all but kavl will veer around to NE as the damming builds
in, with some low-end gusts possible especially Saturday afternoon.

Outlook: cold air damming will keep lower CIGS in the area through
Sunday. Drier air moves in for Monday, but moisture and another
frontal system move back in by midweek with associated restrictions
possible again.

Confidence table...

02-08z 08-14z 14-20z 20-00z
kclt high 96% high 83% med 79% high 81%
kgsp high 100% high 85% high 100% high 96%
kavl high 100% med 65% high 82% high 88%
khky high 100% med 73% med 78% med 72%
kgmu high 100% high 87% high 100% high 96%
kand high 100% high 90% high 84% high 81%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 51 mi48 min S 1 G 1.9 73°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 74 mi58 min W 17 G 29 73°F 1017.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC5 mi2.4 hrsN 010.00 miLight Rain71°F69°F94%1016.5 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi2.4 hrsS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F70°F88%1016.1 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC21 mi2.4 hrsS 310.00 miFair72°F70°F94%1015.9 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC22 mi2.5 hrsW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEQY

Wind History from EQY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW5
1 day agoSW5SW6SW7SW7SW7SW7SW6SW7SW9SW8W7W6SW9CalmSW9SW7SW5NW9CalmCalmE3N5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Columbia, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.