Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
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|Sunrise 7:20AM||Sunset 5:13PM||Friday December 13, 2019 8:51 PM EST (01:51 UTC)||Moonrise 6:44PM||Moonset 8:39AM||Illumination 94%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indian Trail, NCHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KGSP 140009 AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 709 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019
SYNOPSIS. A strong upper disturbance will cross the area tonight, bringing another round of rain showers to the region. Upslope moisture could persist in the western North Carolina mountains Saturday into Saturday night, otherwise high pressure gradually builds in through Sunday. Another wet cold front will traverse the area Monday night into Tuesday followed by dry and cool Canadian high pressure building in mid to late week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 645 pm: With the earlier band of moderate to heavy rainfall lifting east of the Carolina Piedmont early this evening, the next round of moderate to possibly heavy rain showers is already starting to pivot back into the area from the west ahead of the next and sharper upper shortwave. Anticipate this forcing to sharpen up very quickly and produce a narrow band of higher rainfall rates crossing the region circa 06Z west to 10Z east. Although lower piedmont areas have already received some 1 to 2 inches of rain today, the brief evening lull has permitted streams to crest and now lower a bit ahead of the next round of rainfall. Cannot rule out some spotty hydro issues overnight, but with additional one-half inch rainfall amounts expected, with embedded higher amounts, flooding should be isolated at best. No Flood Watches are planned at this time. Locally dense fog is very possible under the mid-level drying toward daybreak, but SW to W flow will also start to provide some mixing. There is, thus, quite a bit of uncertainty over morning visibility, so will continue to feature areas of fog in the forecast for now.
The final potent upper shortwave will cross the region on Saturday. This will be interesting mainly because temperatures will begin falling again across the higher terrain and westerly flow moisture and the upper support will likely wring out some snow showers along the higher peaks Saturday into Saturday night. While elevations above 5000 feet could see a couple of inches of snow, any changeover in the lower valleys will occur too slowly for any accums to develop with the passing upper support. Also of note will be the very steep mid-level lapse rates approaching 7.0 deg C/km with the passing H5 thermal trough. PoPs have been boosted in the mountains under this feature, and isolated to scattered showers have been added to the forecast across the I-77 corridor. Thunder seems unlikely, but some of the showers could be rather robust given the very cold mid-level temperatures (500 mb colder than minus 25 C).
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 230 PM EST Friday: Quasi-zonal flow will briefly set up across the CONUS, as one trough lifts NE out of New England, while another digs into the Pacific Coast. A modest air mass will build in across the region Saturday night thru Sunday, resulting clearing skies and near to slightly above normal temps. Whatever NW flow snow shower activity there may be lingering Saturday evening, should wrap up by daybreak Sunday. Only minor snow accums are expected.
The western CONUS upper trough will progress into the Southern Plains Sunday night thru Monday, inducing cyclogenesis near the ArkLaTex region. The low pressure system will activate a warm front across the TN Valley and Carolinas, but will have little moisture to work with. Deep-layer SWLY flow will likely bring an increase in high clouds and possibly low stratus by daybreak Monday across portions of the forecast area. At the very least, strong LLVL WAA will keep temps about 8-10 deg above normal. Moisture begins to deepen enough in the SWLY flow for some upslope showers in the mountains during the aftn hours, but the eastern half of the forecast area is expected to be largely dry thru the day. Highs will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 230 PM EST Friday: A progress, positively tilted upper trough will cross the eastern CONUS Monday night thru Wednesday. The associated sfc low pressure system will track NE across the OH Valley to New England, dragging a trailing cold front thru the Southern Appalachians to the Carolina coast. The front looks like another anafront (like the one we had earlier this week). This means the bulk of the forcing and moisture is on the the cold side of the front. So instability will be lacking once again, and a brief changeover to snow in the highest peaks on the backside of the precip is expected. There is some disagreement on the exact timing of the front, with the GFS a little fast, and new EC coming in a little slower. But right now, it looks like the highest pops will be Monday night thru the first half of Tuesday. The front is a little faster-moving than the previous couple of fropas, and so QPF looks to be 1-2" across the SWLY upslope flow areas of western NC and the SC/GA mountains. But the rest of the area looks to get around 0.5". There is doubt on whether there will be any moisture left for snow at the tail-end of the precip Tuesday night, but if so, accums would be very light and confined to the highest elevations near the TN border.
Temps start out well above normal Monday night just ahead of the front, but cool to near or slightly below normal by Wednesday morning with skies clearing out. The center of Canadian high pressure will settle over the forecast area Thursday, then shift slightly east to the Outer Banks on Friday. The last few runs of the GFS continue to be really fast with the next system, having a southern stream low pressure system cross the area late Friday into Saturday. But the last few runs of the EC have not shown this system at all, and keep dry high pressure in control of the Southeast.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. At KCLT and Elsewhere: Most of the terminals are seeing a brief evening precipitation lull between the departing shortwave from earlier today and the sharper shortwave poised to cross the area from the west overnight. Abundant low-level moisture will keep mainly LIFR conditions locked into place, with rain showers increasing in coverage and intensity through the overnight hours. The best band of moderate to occasionally heavy showers will cross the region from 05Z to 10Z, and then mid-level drying behind the passing wave could permit vsby/cigs to crash even further before the westerly mixing winds start. Will thus feature slowly improving cigs through the late morning hours, then rapid improvement to VFR for the afternoon as the westerly gusts get established. KAVL will see the best chance for continued MVFR cigs as some upvalley moisture develops. Cannot rule out some additional showers Saturday afternoon with the passing upper shortwave given the steep mid-level lapse rates, but chances appear too low to mention at present. Will turn flow from northerly early in the cycle to light SW by daybreak, hen more westerly and gusty with time through Saturday for the foothills/piedmont sites. KAVL should see a sharp switch to NW circa 09Z and then persistent gusts through the end of the period in better cold advection.
Outlook: Drier/VFR conditions will return through Sunday and persist into Monday. The next sharp cold front will cross the region Monday night into Tuesday, with associated rain showers and restrictions likely. Drier air and stronger high pressure will set up by mid week.
Confidence Table .
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z KCLT Med 78% High 82% Med 65% High 94% KGSP Med 72% Med 73% Med 70% High 100% KAVL High 82% Med 72% Med 71% High 84% KHKY Med 76% Med 76% Low 57% High 92% KGMU Med 68% Med 71% Med 73% High 100% KAND Med 67% Med 71% High 87% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link:
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.
SYNOPSIS . ARK NEAR TERM . HG SHORT TERM . ARK LONG TERM . ARK AVIATION . HG
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC||51 mi||81 min||N 2.9 G 4.1||49°F|
|LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC||74 mi||31 min||NNW 1.9 G 7||42°F|
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC||5 mi||58 min||NNE 9||9.00 mi||Light Rain||41°F||39°F||93%||1012.2 hPa|
|Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC||17 mi||59 min||NNW 6||5.00 mi||Light Rain Fog/Mist||40°F||37°F||93%||1011.8 hPa|
|Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC||21 mi||57 min||NNW 5||7.00 mi||Overcast||40°F||37°F||93%||1012.2 hPa|
|Concord Regional Airport, NC||22 mi||61 min||N 4||2.00 mi||Rain Fog/Mist||39°F||37°F||93%||1011.8 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KEQY
Wind History from EQY (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||E||E|
|2 days ago||NW||N||N||NE||NE||N||N||N||N||N||N||NE||NE||N||NE||NE||N||Calm||N||Calm||Calm||Calm|
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (20,4,5,8)(on/off)  Help
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