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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 1015 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Overnight..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves flat.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming N around 5 kt after midnight. Waves flat.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers likely.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 1015 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. Strong high pressure will build in from the south and west through Thursday. A series of storm systems will then impact the area Friday into early next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 300049 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 749 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Strong high pressure will continue to build in from the south and west through Thursday. A series of storm systems will then impact the area Friday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 730 PM Wednesday...

Temperatures this evening are running about 5-10 degrees colder than this time yesterday. This doesn't necessarily equate to a colder night than last night for everyone, but for some it will be. Hatteras, for example, was at 30 degrees as of 7pm, and is already colder than the 36 degree low this morning. On a side note, this is the first sub-freezing temp of the season there.
This is also the first sub-freezing temp there since February 19, 2023.

For the rest of tonight, I adjusted the hourly temps to reflect current trends. With high pressure shifting offshore, a weak low-mid level wave moving through, higher dewpoints, and some high cloudiness, the current rate of fall should level off. The question is how cold will it get before this leveling off occurs, if it does indeed occur. I lowered temps tonight, but didn't go quite as cold as the 10th percentile of guidance suggests because of the above-mentioned factors. This means some sheltered locations inland will probably reach the teens once again, and areas along the Outer Banks will see their first freeze of the season.

Previous Discussion...Current conditions are heavily influenced by the high pressure to our west, with clear skies and light winds. High pressure will continue to build into eastern NC from the southwest. Temperatures will bottom out to the low/mid 20s inland, high 20s along the Crystal Coast, and 30s along the OBX.
It is worth noting that if winds calm down earlier than forecasted along the OBX, low temperatures could reach below freezing in spots as the sandy soil is able to effectively cool in decoupled conditions. High clouds will start moving in from the SW after midnight which could be a limiting factor for uninterrupted radiational cooling, but coverage is expected to remain few to scattered for the near term.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
As of 330 PM Wed...High pressure will continue to dominate Thursday as it moves through the region in the afternoon, making for another quiet (but less dry) day with calm winds as dewpoints will be 15-20 degrees higher compared to Wednesday.
High clouds will continue streaming in from the SW, with mid- level clouds moving in late morning into the afternoon. Current forecast calls for scattered cloud decks, allowing for diurnal heating to occur. Temperatures will warm up to the mid to upper 50s across the region.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM Wednesday...High pressure slides offshore late in the week with a more active pattern expected to develop through the weekend.

A southern stream jet becomes dominant across the southern CONUS and a series of systems lifts across the area Friday through early next week. Guidance still not in the best agreement with timing, strength and available moisture with these systems so continue to limit PoPs to chance given the differences. Temps are expected to be above normal through Monday. A northern stream shortwave digs across the Mid West and across the mid-Atlantic early next week pushing deeper moisture offshore with cool high pressure building in from the west into mid week.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...

As of 630 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

1) VFR conditions expected through Thursday

FORECAST DETAILS

Low-impact aviation conditions continue for at least one more day.
High pressure overhead will keep winds light through tonight. As the high moves offshore on Thursday, a coastal trough will begin to take shape offshore. From an aviation perspective, the developing trough won't be of much consequence through Thursday, but a FEW/SCT layer of cumulus clouds may develop near the coast late in the day. At this time, CIGs are expected to hold off until after the current TAF cycle.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions continue through Thursday night. An active pattern develops across the area Friday through the weekend with periods of showers bringing occasional sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Wed...Latest obs show W/WNW winds 5-10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt and seas 2-4 ft, highest north of Ocracoke.
Waves will gradually decrease to 1-3 ft and winds pick up a tick overnight, approaching 15 kt sustained at times with gusts in the upper teens. High pressure will move across the region Thursday afternoon, resulting in decreasing winds (sub 10 kts)
and variable flow, particularly in the southern waters.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...A series of low pressure systems will impact the area late in the week and this weekend.

A strong low pressure system will lift into the Ohio River Valley Friday and Friday night which will serve to tighten pressure gradients across the region and will see Sly winds increase to 15-20+ kt with seas building to 3-6 ft. SCA conditions are most probable across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. An active pattern continues through the weekend with another low pressure area moving across the region late Saturday into Sunday but at this time guidance is keeping conditions below SCA criteria.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:40 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:18 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:54 AM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:13 PM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:38 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:19 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:48 AM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:38 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:07 PM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,