Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Bern, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Above normal temperatures will prevail through the entire week with the potential for record breaking temperatures Tuesday through Saturday.

2) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure is building in from the north.
With cool northeast to easterly onshore flow behind the boundary, temps are running about 5 degrees lower today compared to yesterday but still somewhat above average for mid- April. The surface high will migrate and then anchor off the mid- Atlantic coast tonight into tomorrow. When coupled with a persistent mid- level ridge and persistent southwesterly flow, stage will be set for a considerable warm-up through the week as temps climb into the 90s inland. The current forecast remains at the 25th percentile of NBM probabilistic guidance, but the spread to the 75-90th percentile has narrowed considerably to just a few degrees. Still, there remains some wiggle room for forecast temps to trend a degree or two higher over the coming days. Records will likely be challenged for much of the week - see the CLIMATE section for statistics. Went well above NBM for highs along OBX, as there is a known cold bias in SW flow in this region.

There remains some spread on whether a backdoor front on Friday will make it across the area, but given the strength of the ridge pattern recognition points to this boundary stalling before reaching ENC. 00z guidance suite has trended closer to a solution stalling the front across southern Virginia, and forecast highs have trended higher once again into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Worsening drought conditions are likely through the foreseeable future with no rain in the forecast through this week. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks.
While the forecast currently has conditions not meeting criteria for fire danger statements, the very dry conditions will continue to bring an elevated threat for wildfires. It is also worth noting late Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening winds will increase to gusts of around 20 mph inland paired with relative humidities in the 30-40% range. Again, this is above Fire Danger Statement criteria, but given the increased sensitivities worth a mention. The NCFS continues a statewide burn ban until further notice.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Main concern through the TAF period is the potential for stratus development late tonight into Monday morning. NBM and HRRR guidance showing highest probs for sub-VFR cigs just west of the area along the I-95 corridor and westward, with less than 20% prob over ENC terminals. Still, with moist low levels, cannot completely rule out the potential and have included few-sct clouds in the MVFR range in the TAFs. Even if stratus doesn't develop, could see brief MVFR cigs through the morning as LCL's rise with daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Winds become SW Monday with gusts around 15-20 kt late morning and afternoon.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with a more summertime pattern taking shape next week.

MARINE
Latest obs show E-SE winds 5-15 kt with seas 3-5 ft. Winds gradually veer southeasterly tonight and then southwesterly by tomorrow morning as high pressure shifts and then anchors offshore, in a typical warm season regime. Monday evening through Tuesday winds increase as the pressure gradient tightens a tad. Still expecting sub-25 knot gusts for most, although southerly flow could cause some funneling along Alligator River Monday, locally enhancing gusts to around 25 knots. At this point not enough confidence to go with a localized Small Craft Advisory for the Alligator River, but this will be worth monitoring.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week, although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

CLIMATE
Record High temps for 4/14 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1948 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 80/1994 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 93/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 80/1996 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 99/1930 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 88/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/15 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 94/1972 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 84/1922 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 96/1922 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 80/1964 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 92/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 93/2006 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/16 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1972 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 78/1994 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 82/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 92/2006 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 91/1972 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/17 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 92/1972 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 82/1976 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 91/1972 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...None.