Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Bern, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 4 AM Tuesday...

Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms within a plume of deep moisture this morning will begin to shift eastward through the late morning and afternoon. While the flooding threat will continue through much of today for the sounds and OBX, intrusion of a gradual dry slot will bring lower rain rates and, eventually, drier weather to western counties this afternoon. Models have been increasingly progressive with drier air, pushing most of the activity offshore by mid morning. As such, I have heavily favored the HRRR for the afternoon timing of showers and storms.

Intrusion of dry air aloft and height falls will maintain instability through the afternoon, even after the fire hose of 150+% climatological PWATs move offshore. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather for both the morning and afternoon time frame.

Saturated profiles with weak low level turning will continue a threat of tornadoes through the early afternoon (also worth mentioning a threat of flooding in training storms).

Isolated thunderstorms east of I-95 this afternoon will be working with similar bulk shear parameters, but low level helicity should decrease slightly. Pulse or multi-cellular convection could lead to a damaging wind or marginal hail threat.

Overall, expect a better chance of severe weather over the eastern half of the CWA where shear, lift, instability, and moisture align during the late morning with less confidence in afternoon convection for inland areas. Light boundary layer winds and saturated soils could lead to areas of patchy fog on Wednesday morning barring cloud cover this evening.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 4 AM Tuesday...

Wednesday... Behind the exiting dry slot, moisture advection returns within an upper low. As the trough of the upper low shifts eastward on Wednesday, instability and increased moisture should lead to widespread showers and storms. Confidence is relatively high that thunderstorms will occur with this trough axis as it moves through eastern NC during peak heating. Rain rates won't be as high as previous days, but instability and shear should be sufficient for a low-end severe weather threat.
As such, SPC has included the area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms. Showers and storms move to the coastal waters and OBX on Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.

Thursday... Subsidence following the shortwave on Thursday should reduce afternoon storm coverage considerably compared to previous days. However, westerly flow and temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 could lead to isolated or scattered storms during the afternoon. This will be especially true where convergence is maximized along a pinned sea breeze.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 4 AM Tuesday...

Ridging continues on Friday allowing temperatures to climb into the 90s. Divergence aloft will focus showers and thunderstorms over the southern Ohio Valley and eastward toward the Mid Atlantic on Friday afternoon. With the ridge degrading and the upper level energy dispersing southward, I have maintained the 30% PoP suggested by NBM on Friday afternoon and Friday evening.
Typically in these patterns, the ridge holds a little longer than initially depicted, so expect some forecast changes in future updates.

Zonal flow within the same air mass is likely to bring some of the warmest temperatures of the year on Saturday. Downslope flow will push highs into the lower 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s. Isolated showers and storms will be possible during the afternoon. A series of cold fronts will approach the area late this weekend and early next week as we gradually settle into a pattern of NW flow.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 6Z Wednesday/...
As of 700 AM Tuesday...
A healthy mass of showers with embedded thunderstorms continues to push north and east across the region this morning. Periodic IFR this morning (primarily in VIS restrictions due to heavy rain) will gradually become MVFR from SW to NE. During the afternoon CIGs will lift or erode, becoming VFR. Pulse convection is possible this afternoon, primarily inland but confidence is low.

With saturated soils and light boundary layer winds tonight, patchy fog is possible. This will depend on evening cloud cover.
The best chance of fog would be away from the coast.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Morning through Saturday/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday... Sub-VFR conditions possible in widespread showers and thunderstorms possible on Wednesday as an upper trough moves through the region. Shower chances decrease late this week and into the weekend, but isolated to scattered coverage will be possible each day (primarily during the afternoon).

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday... Winds increase this afternoon as dry air returns behind a line of showers and storms. Seas will increase from 4-6 feet this morning to 6-8 feet today. Conditions will begin to improve tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday... SW winds are expected on Wednesday morning, decreasing throughout the day. Seas will also begin to improve, decreasing to around 3-4 feet by the afternoon.
Pleasant boating conditions for the end of the work week.

HYDROLOGY
As of 4 AM Tue...A large swath of the southwestern portion of the CWA has seen rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches with a few areas up to 8 inches. Additional rainfall is expected early this morning and through the early afternoon. Most of the heavy precipitation should shift into the eastern CWA late this morning and this afternoon where rainfall totals are lighter.
Despite this, the flooding rain threat will continue today. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire CWA

EQUIPMENT
Due to a system upgrade, NOAA Weather Radio from the following transmitters will be off the air starting 730 AM Monday May 12th through Wednesday May 14th.

New Bern, NC, KEC84 at 162.400 MHz.
Cape Hatteras, NC, KIG-77 at 162.475 MHz.
Marnie, NC, WWH-26 at 162.425 MHz.
Warsaw, NC, KXI-5 at 162.425 MHz.

Visit www.weather.gov/mhx for the latest forecast information during the temporary outage. Our internet will NOT be impacted by the upgrade.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ029-044>047-080-081- 094-193>196-203>205.
Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ079-090>092- 198-199.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135- 231.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.