Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Bern, NC
March 29, 2024 1:17 AM EDT (05:17 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:56 AM Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 10:59 PM Moonset 8:02 AM |
AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 944 Pm Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon - .
Overnight - NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop late. A slight chance of showers late this evening.
Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sun - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy. A chance of showers after midnight.
AMZ100 944 Pm Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A coastal low and associated frontal system will impact the area through Friday bringing the potental for gale force winds and dangerous seas. High pressure then builds in from the south over the weekend with another frontal passage likely in middle of next week.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 290004 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 804 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A coastal low will move along the Crystal Coast today, followed quickly by a cold front passage. High pressure then builds in from the south over the weekend with another frontal passage likely early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 7 PM Thursday...Things are starting to quiet down as the surface low moves further offshore. After a very soggy day, the only remaining showers reside over the eastern portion of the CWA Satellite imagery shows much drier air moving in behind these showers as high pressure builds north from the Gulf states. The pressure gradient between the building high and departing low should generate enough wind overnight to keep us mixed and avoid fog.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
As of 145 PM Thursday...
The flow on Friday will become westerly in the wake of today's coastal low. A downsloping flow, plenty of sunshine, and improved mixing will support warm and breezy conditions. BUFKIT momentum transfer guidance suggests wind gusts could top out in the 25-30+ mph range. This is a bit higher than the previous forecast. Given the additional warming and mixing associated with the downsloping flow, the increase in winds seems reasonable, so I bumped winds and temps up a bit.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM Thurs...High pressure remains in place through the weekend resulting in benign weather across ENC. Next potential frontal boundary then impacts the area early to mid week next week.
Friday night through Sunday... Upper level trough will be to the north and east of the Carolinas to start the period and continue to push further away while zonal flow sets up aloft through Sat before broad upper ridging extends over ENC on Sun.
At the surface, a ridge of high pressure builds in from the south and west and extends over the Carolinas to start our weekend.
Zonal flow remains overhead on Sat with a weak mid level shortwave riding along this flow to our north. At the surface associated frontal boundary will be located to the north with a weak low riding E'wards along the front while surface ridging continues to extend N'wards into the Carolinas. While we expect to remain precip free on Sat some additional cloud cover may begin to sneak into our northern zones Sat afternoon and evening, though with breezy SW'rly surface winds and increasing low level thicknesses expecting a rather pleasant day overall with high temps getting into the mid 70s inland and upper 60s along the OBX, while lows remain rather warm Sat night only getting down into the mid 50s. As we step into Sunday upper ridging briefly builds overhead as a positively tilted upper trough begins to dig into the western CONUS. At the surface, ridging begins to slide off to the east while pesky surface front to our north dips slightly S'wards nearing the CWA Sun evening with yet another weak surface low riding E'wards along the boundary, this will allow additional cloud cover to build further south across the area, though we expect to generally remain precip free Sun as well. Highs get into the low 80s inland and near 70 across the OBX.
Monday through midweek next week...Upper level trough quickly pushes E'wards nearing the Eastern Seaboard by midweek.
Associated low and cold front also quickly march E'wards on Mon bringing our next best threat for precip on Tue. Front quickly pushes offshore by Wed with fair weather forecast to return from Wed onwards. Temps generally remain above avg on Mon and Tue with near avg temps forecast behind the frontal passage on Wed.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 00z Friday/...
As of 7 PM Thursday...Conditions are improving as low pressure moves further offshore and high pressure builds in from the Gulf states. Clouds will be lifting and dissipating all together over the next few hours and bring us back to VFR, which will last through the period. The pressure gradient between the building high and departing low should generate strong enough NW winds overnight to keep us mixed and avoid fog. Winds become westerly by tomorrow morning and will gust to around 25 kt during peak afternoon heating.
LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Expecting predominantly VFR conditions through much of the period as high pressure ridging builds in from the south. We will see some gusty W to SW'rly winds in the afternoon on Sat with gusts above 20 kts possible, as the pressure gradient takes a few days to relax behind a departing low pressure system. Next potential threat for some sub-VFR ceilings or vis look to be Mon night into Tues with the approach of our next frontal boundary.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...
An ~1006mb surface low was located just off the coast of ENC this afternoon, and is moving east away from the area. The low continues to be slower to deepen, but winds across area waters have finally responded, with gusts of 25-35kt now being observed. Winds will continue to increase through tonight, with an increased risk of northerly gales. The forecast is tracking well, and at this time, no significant changes appear to be necessary. Winds will lay down some tonight, then build again on Friday as a second surge of west/northwest winds develops associated with a renewed tightening of the pressure gradient.
Seas of 5-6 ft this afternoon will quickly build to 8-10 ft by tonight, and then remain elevated into Friday thanks to continued gusty winds. We'll plan to keep the current marine headlines as-is, but some adjustments to timing will likely be needed if the current wind trends hold. The main adjustments will be potentially shortening the duration of gales, but we'll wait to see if the winds do, indeed, come down as quick as some of the recent guidance shows.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330AM Thursday...Marine headlines quickly drop from W to E Sat into Sun as winds ease further with winds becoming SW'rly and decreasing down to 5-15 kts by Sun and generally remain around these speeds through early next week. Seas start out around 6-9 ft on Fri but then quickly lower with the lighter winds on Sat down to 4-7 ft with seas forecast to fall to 2-5 ft by Sun.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 245 PM Wednesday...
Winds have finally begun to respond to low pressure deepening offshore this afternoon. With the increase in winds, soundside water levels are beginning to rise across Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands. Water levels are rising earlier than anticipated, therefore with this update, we'll start the Coastal Flood Advisory now (instead of the original 8pm start time). The overall spirit of the forecast hasn't changed, though, and for now we still anticipate minor coastal flooding impacts for soundside locations of Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands.
As the low pulls away, another round of large, breaking waves and ocean overwash will impact oceanside areas from Ocracoke north through the Northern Outer Banks. Though seas are quite a bit lower this morning, generally around 5-6 ft across the Northern Outer Banks and down towards Ocracoke., seas will rapidly increase this afternoon with long period 5-9 ft seas forecast. As a result have kept the high surf advisory in effect through Friday morning. After Friday morning aforementioned low pressure will quickly pull away from the area resulting in seas lowering down to 4-6 ft and thus ending the high surf threat.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ203-205.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ131-136-137- 230-231.
Gale Warning until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 804 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A coastal low will move along the Crystal Coast today, followed quickly by a cold front passage. High pressure then builds in from the south over the weekend with another frontal passage likely early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 7 PM Thursday...Things are starting to quiet down as the surface low moves further offshore. After a very soggy day, the only remaining showers reside over the eastern portion of the CWA Satellite imagery shows much drier air moving in behind these showers as high pressure builds north from the Gulf states. The pressure gradient between the building high and departing low should generate enough wind overnight to keep us mixed and avoid fog.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
As of 145 PM Thursday...
The flow on Friday will become westerly in the wake of today's coastal low. A downsloping flow, plenty of sunshine, and improved mixing will support warm and breezy conditions. BUFKIT momentum transfer guidance suggests wind gusts could top out in the 25-30+ mph range. This is a bit higher than the previous forecast. Given the additional warming and mixing associated with the downsloping flow, the increase in winds seems reasonable, so I bumped winds and temps up a bit.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 AM Thurs...High pressure remains in place through the weekend resulting in benign weather across ENC. Next potential frontal boundary then impacts the area early to mid week next week.
Friday night through Sunday... Upper level trough will be to the north and east of the Carolinas to start the period and continue to push further away while zonal flow sets up aloft through Sat before broad upper ridging extends over ENC on Sun.
At the surface, a ridge of high pressure builds in from the south and west and extends over the Carolinas to start our weekend.
Zonal flow remains overhead on Sat with a weak mid level shortwave riding along this flow to our north. At the surface associated frontal boundary will be located to the north with a weak low riding E'wards along the front while surface ridging continues to extend N'wards into the Carolinas. While we expect to remain precip free on Sat some additional cloud cover may begin to sneak into our northern zones Sat afternoon and evening, though with breezy SW'rly surface winds and increasing low level thicknesses expecting a rather pleasant day overall with high temps getting into the mid 70s inland and upper 60s along the OBX, while lows remain rather warm Sat night only getting down into the mid 50s. As we step into Sunday upper ridging briefly builds overhead as a positively tilted upper trough begins to dig into the western CONUS. At the surface, ridging begins to slide off to the east while pesky surface front to our north dips slightly S'wards nearing the CWA Sun evening with yet another weak surface low riding E'wards along the boundary, this will allow additional cloud cover to build further south across the area, though we expect to generally remain precip free Sun as well. Highs get into the low 80s inland and near 70 across the OBX.
Monday through midweek next week...Upper level trough quickly pushes E'wards nearing the Eastern Seaboard by midweek.
Associated low and cold front also quickly march E'wards on Mon bringing our next best threat for precip on Tue. Front quickly pushes offshore by Wed with fair weather forecast to return from Wed onwards. Temps generally remain above avg on Mon and Tue with near avg temps forecast behind the frontal passage on Wed.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 00z Friday/...
As of 7 PM Thursday...Conditions are improving as low pressure moves further offshore and high pressure builds in from the Gulf states. Clouds will be lifting and dissipating all together over the next few hours and bring us back to VFR, which will last through the period. The pressure gradient between the building high and departing low should generate strong enough NW winds overnight to keep us mixed and avoid fog. Winds become westerly by tomorrow morning and will gust to around 25 kt during peak afternoon heating.
LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Expecting predominantly VFR conditions through much of the period as high pressure ridging builds in from the south. We will see some gusty W to SW'rly winds in the afternoon on Sat with gusts above 20 kts possible, as the pressure gradient takes a few days to relax behind a departing low pressure system. Next potential threat for some sub-VFR ceilings or vis look to be Mon night into Tues with the approach of our next frontal boundary.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...
An ~1006mb surface low was located just off the coast of ENC this afternoon, and is moving east away from the area. The low continues to be slower to deepen, but winds across area waters have finally responded, with gusts of 25-35kt now being observed. Winds will continue to increase through tonight, with an increased risk of northerly gales. The forecast is tracking well, and at this time, no significant changes appear to be necessary. Winds will lay down some tonight, then build again on Friday as a second surge of west/northwest winds develops associated with a renewed tightening of the pressure gradient.
Seas of 5-6 ft this afternoon will quickly build to 8-10 ft by tonight, and then remain elevated into Friday thanks to continued gusty winds. We'll plan to keep the current marine headlines as-is, but some adjustments to timing will likely be needed if the current wind trends hold. The main adjustments will be potentially shortening the duration of gales, but we'll wait to see if the winds do, indeed, come down as quick as some of the recent guidance shows.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330AM Thursday...Marine headlines quickly drop from W to E Sat into Sun as winds ease further with winds becoming SW'rly and decreasing down to 5-15 kts by Sun and generally remain around these speeds through early next week. Seas start out around 6-9 ft on Fri but then quickly lower with the lighter winds on Sat down to 4-7 ft with seas forecast to fall to 2-5 ft by Sun.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 245 PM Wednesday...
Winds have finally begun to respond to low pressure deepening offshore this afternoon. With the increase in winds, soundside water levels are beginning to rise across Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands. Water levels are rising earlier than anticipated, therefore with this update, we'll start the Coastal Flood Advisory now (instead of the original 8pm start time). The overall spirit of the forecast hasn't changed, though, and for now we still anticipate minor coastal flooding impacts for soundside locations of Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands.
As the low pulls away, another round of large, breaking waves and ocean overwash will impact oceanside areas from Ocracoke north through the Northern Outer Banks. Though seas are quite a bit lower this morning, generally around 5-6 ft across the Northern Outer Banks and down towards Ocracoke., seas will rapidly increase this afternoon with long period 5-9 ft seas forecast. As a result have kept the high surf advisory in effect through Friday morning. After Friday morning aforementioned low pressure will quickly pull away from the area resulting in seas lowering down to 4-6 ft and thus ending the high surf threat.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ203-205.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ131-136-137- 230-231.
Gale Warning until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 33 mi | 47 min | N 8G | 49°F | 57°F | 29.97 | ||
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 43 mi | 77 min | NNW 18G | 51°F | 29.99 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KEWN COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL,NC | 2 sm | 23 min | WNW 05 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 45°F | 43°F | 93% | 30.01 | |
KNKT CHERRY POINT MCAS /CUNNINGHAM FIELD/,NC | 17 sm | 21 min | WNW 09 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 45°F | 39°F | 81% | 30.01 |
Tide / Current for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 11:32 AM EDT 1.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:45 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 11:46 PM EDT 2.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:51 AM EDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 11:32 AM EDT 1.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:45 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 11:46 PM EDT 2.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
12 am |
2.2 |
1 am |
1.9 |
2 am |
1.5 |
3 am |
1 |
4 am |
0.6 |
5 am |
0.3 |
6 am |
0.2 |
7 am |
0.3 |
8 am |
0.7 |
9 am |
1.2 |
10 am |
1.7 |
11 am |
1.9 |
12 pm |
1.9 |
1 pm |
1.7 |
2 pm |
1.4 |
3 pm |
0.9 |
4 pm |
0.5 |
5 pm |
0.3 |
6 pm |
0.2 |
7 pm |
0.4 |
8 pm |
0.8 |
9 pm |
1.4 |
10 pm |
1.8 |
11 pm |
2.2 |
Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:05 AM EDT 1.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 12:26 PM EDT 1.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:43 PM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:05 AM EDT 1.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 12:26 PM EDT 1.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:43 PM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet
12 am |
1.4 |
1 am |
1.3 |
2 am |
1.1 |
3 am |
0.9 |
4 am |
0.6 |
5 am |
0.3 |
6 am |
0.2 |
7 am |
0.1 |
8 am |
0.2 |
9 am |
0.5 |
10 am |
0.8 |
11 am |
1 |
12 pm |
1.2 |
1 pm |
1.2 |
2 pm |
1.1 |
3 pm |
0.8 |
4 pm |
0.6 |
5 pm |
0.3 |
6 pm |
0.2 |
7 pm |
0.1 |
8 pm |
0.3 |
9 pm |
0.5 |
10 pm |
0.9 |
11 pm |
1.2 |
Morehead City, NC,
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