Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Bern, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:57PM Monday December 9, 2019 2:04 AM EST (07:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:28PMMoonset 4:18AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 920 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Overnight..Variable winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers late this evening, then showers likely. Showers with a slight chance of tstms late.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Tue..SW winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. A chance of showers, then rain likely. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Bern, NC
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location: 35.09, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 090556 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1256 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will move north through the area tonight into Monday. A strong cold front will move through Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High pressure will build north of the area through late next week, with another system likely impacting the area late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 915 PM Sunday . Numerous shra cont to stream N over good chunk of the mainland counties. Large temp grdnt on either side of nearly stationary bndry with central coast low to mid 60s and deep inland areas around 50. Fcst looks good with widespread shra cont to stream N while slowly shifting twrd coast overnight. Only change was to add some heavy rain wording with highest pops as some local rainfall totals will likely exceed 1 inch.

Prev disc . High pressure will migrate eastward off the New England coast tonight while continuing to ridge into the piedmont. Meanwhile a coastal trough, which is currently just west of a Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout line, will slide west to roughly the highway 17 corridor. Low level moisture has been increasing across the area today ahead of a mid level shortwave trough and have seen showers spreading north from Cape Fear into southwestern portions of the FA this afternoon, and this trend will continue overnight with widespread precip across much of the area. Some areas could see decent rainfall rates after midnight with strong low level convergence along the trough and forcing as the shortwave pushes across the area. Some of the wetter guidance is indicating 1-2+ inches possible where training may occur in the vicinity of the trough, but used a blend of guidance for qpf as confidence is not that high with the more extreme solutions and generally have around an inch or less through tonight. Could also see isolated tstms along coastal sections from Hatteras south overnight with modest elevated instability developing. Lows tonight will likely occur this evening, then will see temps gradually increase after midnight as southerly flow increases.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. As of 345 PM Sunday . Shortwave energy pushes across the area with the coastal trough/warm front lifting northwest of the area and the showers gradually tapering off front west to east through the day. Elevated instability continues across eastern portions of the FA in the morning with the isolated tstm threat persisting ahead of the shortwave. Southerly flow will bring warmer temps with highs expected in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 245 PM Sun . Periods of unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term period, with roller coaster temps as a progressive/amplified active weather pattern is expected.

Monday night through Tuesday . Mostly dry weather and very warm temps are expected Mon night and Tue. In fact could see some record highs threatened on Tue as highs flirt with the 80 degree mark, which makes sense given fcst low lvl thicknesses soaring to around 1380M.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . More widespread shower activity is expected again Tuesday night into Wed. Best chances of rain will be interior areas, where fgen is maximized late night into early Wed. Further east, chances of rain are in question as forcing will be n and w of the coast, and have capped PoPs in the chance range. The strong cold front will push through the area by Wed morning, with dry conditions returning during the afternoon hours. Temps will swing to the other side of climo, and only reach the 50s behind the front Wed afternoon.

Wednesday night through Thursday . Strong high pressure will build in from the north with much cooler and drier air Wed night and Thursday with highs Thu only in the 40s in most inland locations. Widespread lows near or below freezing Thursday morning. GFS is a big outlier with weather on Thur, and have discounted this wet soln, as more consistent ECMWF has support from the UKMET and CMC. Have indicated only a 20 pop as some light showers may migrate in towards the coast, but generally expecting dry conditions.

Friday through Sunday . Rain chances inc Thur night and esp Fri through Sat as deep srly flow increases with digging long wave trough across the lower MS River Valley, which will spur several areas of low pressure along the eastern seaboard. Have inc pops to 50-70% this time frame as looks quite unsettled through at least Sat night. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Depending on exact track of said low pressure areas, there could be potential for strong to even severe storms if storm tracks are inland. Drier conditions with near normal temps could arrive Sunday as low pressure moves well east of the area.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through Monday/ . As of 100 AM Mon . Currently a mix of IFR/LIFR conditions as boundary wobbles around the vicinity of EWN, which has bounced up to MVFR a couple times so far. Expect widespread IFR or worse for most areas continuing into mid to late morning as most areas will be on the cool side of the boundary with low clouds. Shower threat is slowly tapering off for coastal plain but lower visibilities in heavier showers still a threat especially further east. Ceilings lift to MVFR late this morning then become VFR in the afternoon as clouds lift in southwesterly flow. Winds may be somewhat gusty in the afternoon.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/ . As of 245 PM Sun . Unsettled weather is expected Tue night through Wednesday afternoon with gusty winds, scattered showers and periods of sub-VFR conditions likely. Dry weather returns second half of Wed through Thu. Increasing moisture Friday will lead to the development of rain with the potential for sub VFR ceilings and vsbys.

MARINE. Short Term /through Monday/ . As of 915 PM Sunday . Most of the coastal wtrs now in warm sector with gusty SE winds and seas building above 6 ft. Bndry not expected to move much overnight with cont strong SSE winds along the imd cst and seas building twrd 10 ft outer central and srn wtrs.

Prev disc . Coastal trough is currently bisecting the waters and is positioned just west of a Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras line. The trough is expected to push to the western portions of the Albemarle Sound and inland rivers tonight with SE flow increasing to 15-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt east of the trough, but will be less than 15 kt near the trough. The trough lifts NW of the area as a warm front Monday with winds becoming southerly around 10-15 kt across western sections to 20-25 kt east. Seas will build to 6-9 ft southern and central waters and 5-7 ft northern waters tonight and to 7-11 ft southern/central and 6-9 ft northern waters Monday.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/ . As of 245 PM Sun . Still no changes to previous thinking with an active weather pattern expected through the end of next week which will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds and elevated seas AOA 6 ft through the period. Winds Mon night through Tue evening are expected to be S/SW 15-25 kt, but may remain just below SCA levels for the sounds and rivers if high res meso models are correct in depicting less mixing over their cooler waters but will continue to monitor for potential inc in winds. Winds will shift N/NW 15-25 kt with higher gusts behind the front late Wed night and continue through Fri, with even the sounds likely to receive SCA winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF/SK SHORT TERM . SK LONG TERM . JME/TL AVIATION . RF/JME/MS MARINE . RF/JME/SK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 33 mi52 min SE 16 G 19 63°F 53°F1021.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 43 mi64 min SE 30 G 33 67°F 1021.9 hPa (-2.1)63°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC1 mi70 minN 02.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist53°F52°F96%1022.8 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC19 mi70 minSSW 94.00 miRain Fog/Mist64°F60°F87%1022.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWN

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N6N6NE6NE6N4N7NE7NE6NE6NE8NE5NE7E7NE5N5N8N6N4N3W93CalmW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN9NE11NE13NE11NE14NE13NE13N10NE13NE10NE9NE9NE10NE10NE10NE8NE8NE9N8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S6W7SW8W7CalmCalmCalmW5NW3NW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:16 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:16 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:26 AM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:07 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:41 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.511.522.22.221.61.10.70.30.20.30.61.11.51.81.91.71.40.90.5

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:14 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:17 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:20 AM EST     1.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:05 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:35 PM EST     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.10.30.611.21.41.31.210.70.40.20.10.20.40.711.11.210.80.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.