Monday, March30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Bern, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:29PM Monday March 30, 2020 8:10 AM EDT (12:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:43AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 710 Am Edt Mon Mar 30 2020
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Tonight..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves light chop.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy. Showers.
Wed..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Bern, NC
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location: 35.09, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 301124 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 724 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build into the Carolinas from the southwest today. An area of low pressure will move eastward to the south of the area Tuesday night and strengthen well offshore Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late this week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 720 AM Mon . Front is beginning to cross the area this morning with the dew point at Greenville cratering to 43 degrees per the latest observation. Temperatures have been slow to fall, perhaps due to the thick cirrus overhead and steady wind (well sheltered sites did manage to fall into the mid 60s). Other than T/Td adjustments no other changes were made this cycle.

Prev disc . Upper heights continue to slowly fall over the Carolinas this morning with increasingly zonal flow setting up south of a broad stacked low crossing into Quebec. Another shortwave trough was seen on WV imagery digging into the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front was impinging on the western CWA border with rapidly falling dew points in its wake.

The overall forecast picture is quiet for today with zonal flow continuing aloft and high pressure remaining over the region for today. Weak CAA will continue aloft allowing low-level thicknesses to slowly fall during the day. Lowered highs a couple degrees this morning based on implied thicknesses of around 1375 m and continued mid to high level clouds streaming overhead courtesy of upper level jet, but still expect a few 80s south of Highway 264 with 70s elsewhere.

Bigger issue today will be the potential for ideal fire weather conditions. Dry airmass will advect in behind the passing cold front today with forecast Tds falling into the upper 30s. Additionally, west to northwesterly winds will remain 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kt as pressure gradient remains pinched. Combined with expected temps, RHs are forecast to fall to around 25 percent, although this may trend lower if mixing layer is deeper than expected and even drier air aloft can be brought to the surface. Residents in the region should take precautions when burning.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. As of 320 AM Mon . Dry reinforcing backdoor cold front will cross the state overnight with more robust CAA aloft with winds veering northerly. Cloud cover increases overnight with developing cyclone over the southeastern CONUS but lows should still be able to fall into the low to mid 50s across the region with a few upper 40s in well sheltered areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As 3 AM Mon . Low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night, strengthening offshore Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late week. Another front will approach the area late this weekend. Temps will gradually moderate late week into the weekend.

Tuesday through Wednesday . Miller type B cyclogenesis is expected Tue over South Carolina with the parent low tracking across the Ohio Valley. This is response to a potent mid level trough moving across the Midwest US. The developing low is forecast to track northeast along the NC coast Tue night into Wed then continue to deepen Wed afternoon off of the Mid- Atlantic coast. Widespread rainfall is expected late Tue afternoon into Wednesday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Tuesday night with PWATs approaching 1.25". Will continue categorical pops, with WPC showing 0.75-1.5" qpf amts. Bulk of precip should be ending by late Wed morning, with lighter wrap around moisture from the offshore low possible across the area during the afternoon. Strong winds will develop late Tue night, peaking Wednesday, strongest along the coast. Wind gusts 40-50 mph expected along the coast. Minor water level rises will be possible, especially for oceanside locations north of Cape Hatteras, along with rough surf. See Coastal Flood section below for more details. Low level thickness values, increasing clouds and NE/E flow support highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Tue, and a few degrees cooler Wed, 55-60 deg.

Thursday through Monday . High pressure will build in from the west late week into the first part of the weekend, resulting in dry weather and moderating temps near climo. The next frontal system will approach the area late next weekend. Doesn't look like much moisture with this feature, but still a bit of uncertainty so will continue sc pops Sun and Mon. Highs generally 65-70 deg inland and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, and overnight lows 45-55 deg through Sat. Temps will continue to moderate, warming into the 70s inland late week into early next weekend as flow becomes more southerly.

AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through 12Z Tuesday/ . As of 725 AM Mon . VFR conditions prevail across the airspace this morning with high confidence in VFR conditions through the period as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Weak front has crossed PGV and will cross the terminals this morning. Another breezy day expected with variable northwest to west winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible especially for the coastal plain.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/ . As of 3 AM Mon . Deteriorating conditions Tue, beginning as VFR with cigs lowering through the day. Developing low pressure will approach the area from the southwest late Tue producing widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions. Best chance for widespread sub- VFR will be Tue evening into Wed afternoon, with periods of IFR likely Tue night. Conditions should be improving through the day Wed, though gusty northerly winds expected. VFR likely to return Wed night and prevail into Friday as high pressure builds over the area.

MARINE. Short Term /Today and Tonight/ . As of 325 AM Mon . Latest buoy and local observations show WSW to W flow 10-15 knots with stronger winds for the central coastal waters with Diamond Shoals gusting up to 25 kt (and a water temperature rebounding to 71). Seas remain 6-7 feet for outer waters with 2-4 ft waves elsewhere. Only SCA remaining is for the central waters and this was extended to 12z as waves are decreasing slightly slower than expected.

Winds will veer west to northwest at 10-15 kt as cold front crosses the waters this morning. Another reinforcing front crosses from the north overnight with winds veering northerly and briefing surging to 15-20 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible for northern and central waters but event appears too marginal to warrant new SCAs this cycle. Waves across all waters fall to 2-3 feet by sunset with 4 footers returning with the northerly surge.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/ . As of 3 AM Mon . Tue ahead of developing low pressure to the southwest, NE winds 15-20 kt will veer to the E/NE 10-20 kt. An area of low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night and strengthen off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday. Strong N/NE winds 25-35 kt will develop Tue night, peaking Wed morning and early afternoon, then gradually subsiding Wed night. Still looks like several hours of gale force winds are likely across the waters and sounds. Will hold off on Gale Watch for now, but may be needed later today. Seas will build Tue night, peaking at 6-14 ft Wed. Winds and seas will be gradually subsiding Thursday as high pressure builds over the waters. NW winds 15-20 kt subsiding to 10-15 kt late with seas subsiding to 4-6 ft by afternoon. Gusty NNW winds will continue Friday, along with building seas as long period swell increases from distant low pressure.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 3 AM Mon . Strong N/NE winds will develop Tue night, peaking Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Minor water level rises will be possible for areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, and oceanside locations north of Cape Hatteras. Rough surf will develop along with the threat for minor erosion for the beaches north of Hatteras.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152- 154.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . CQD AVIATION . CQD/MS MARINE . CQD/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 33 mi70 min W 1 G 6 68°F 66°F1015.8 hPa (+1.0)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 43 mi70 min WSW 6 G 8 63°F 1016.2 hPa (+1.5)63°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC1 mi76 minWSW 810.00 miFair68°F57°F70%1016.3 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC19 mi76 minW 810.00 miFair70°F57°F64%1015.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWN

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW8W9W15
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W10W11W6W6NW6W4CalmS5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NE4CalmCalmS3S3NE3S4

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:05 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:31 PM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.22.11.81.410.70.50.40.50.81.21.61.81.81.61.30.90.60.40.30.50.81.3

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:59 AM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:50 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:25 PM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:45 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.21.31.31.10.90.60.40.30.20.30.50.811.11.110.80.60.40.20.20.30.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.