Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashley Heights, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 110 PM Tuesday...

Aloft, the closed mid-level low off the mid-Atlantic coast should continue to progress ewd over the Atlantic through tonight, with the sub-tropical ridge gradually building in from the west. Similarly at the surface, the closed low off the NC coast will continue ewd out over the Atlantic through tonight, with high pressure building in from the NW in its wake. Nly flow will prevail. Dry weather is expected to prevail. While the wrn Piedmont may remain sunny to mostly sunny today, cloud cover increase across the rest of the area through the early afternoon. Cloud cover should decrease as the low moves away from the area late this aft/evening, becoming mostly clear by tonight. Intermittent wind gusts into the teens are expected today, mainly in the east, tapering off after sunset. With the lingering cloud cover in the east today, expect a similar temperature gradient from W-E as yesterday, with highs ranging from mid/upper 70s west to mid/upper 60s east. Lows tonight should again be in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 110 PM Tuesday...

Low pressure will be over eastern Canada Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending to the west through New England, Pennsylvania, and into the central Plains. The cold front will move southeast during the day, paralleling the I-85 corridor by sunset Wednesday.
There will be very little moisture along the front, barely enough to produce any clouds, let alone any precipitation. With mostly sunny skies across the entire area, Wednesday's high temperatures should be more uniform than today's high temperatures, with all locations in the 70s. Temperatures will be slightly colder Wednesday night behind the front, although it will take until Thursday for a more noticeable change in temperatures. Wednesday night's lows will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 110 PM Tuesday...

* Next chance of rain will be Sunday into Monday associated with a cold frontal passage.

* Below average temperatures will warm to above normal over the weekend, dropping back to near normal to start the work week.

After the backdoor cold front passes through the region on Wednesday, high pressure will build over the region. This will allow dry and mostly sunny conditions to prevail Thursday through Saturday. Thursday should be the coldest day of the period, with highs expected in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows dipping into the upper 30s to low 40s as good radiational cooling is expected overnight. Friday should have similar high temperatures as the high pressure system moves through the region, with lows increasing slightly into the 40s. By Saturday, maximum temperatures should be in the 70s regionwide, with lows in the low-to-mid 50s, perhaps the upper 40s in the coolest spots.

A cold front is expected to approach and push through the region Sunday into Monday. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible with the fropa. The best forcing looks to be to our north and less than 500 J/kg of CAPE is expected, so stronger storms do not look to be likely. Additionally, ensemble means are generally showing less than 0.25 inch of rain from this system across the area, with the 90th percentiles also only showing around 0.5-0.75 inch. Sunday's temperatures look to have highs in the mid-to-upper 70s before the front moves through, with lows dipping into the upper 40s to mid 50s. After the front moves through, high pressure should build back into the region, bringing cool and dry conditions to start the work week.

AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 110 PM Tuesday...

TAF period: Very high confidence that INT/GSO will remain VFR through the next 24 hours, with slightly less confidence that RDU/FAY will also remain VFR through the next 24 hours. RWI could begin with some MVFR ceilings, but after a brief time, any ceilings should lift to VFR heights. As low pressure moves offshore, cloud cover will continue to diminish from west to east. There is enough of a pressure gradient to cause gusts at RDU/RWI this afternoon, but the gradient is only strong enough to cause occasional gusts as INT/GSO/FAY. The gusts should come to an end around sunset tonight with both the loss of daytime heating and the low departing. With a low level inversion in place, think that there will be some weak low- level wind shear, possibly 30 knots at 2000 ft, especially farther to the east, but these values will not be strong enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs. Although the wind will pick up again after sunrise on Wednesday, wind gusts do not appear to be strong enough to warrant an additional line at this time.

Outlook: A cold front will move through late Wednesday, but it should result in few clouds and no precipitation. The next chance of rain will approach INT/GSO Sunday afternoon.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.