Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashley Heights, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 PM Saturday...

A strong sub-tropical high in the mid-levels, with standardized 700- 500 mb height anomalies of 2-3 sigma, will migrate along and off the coast of the Carolinas through Sun morning.

Surface high pressure beneath and just downstream of the sub- tropical ridging aloft will extend across the swrn N. Atlantic from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic states. Meanwhile, a cold front will move through the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic, including across nrn and cntl VA by 12Z Sun.

Few, flat cumulus with afternoon heating into the 80s F this afternoon will diminish around sunset, as will breezy and gusty sswly surface winds. The forecast period will otherwise be characterized by light sswly stirring and periods of cirrus and cirrostratus, as high-level moisture overspreads otherwise deeply very dry air accompanying a prominent and pristine elevated mixed layer evident in the 12Z GSO and surrounding regional RAOBs over the srn Middle Atlantic/Carolinas. Temperatures will remain well above average, ~12-18 degrees so, and mostly in the lwr-mid 60s for lows.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 PM Saturday...

* Continued unseasonably warm

A mid/upr-level cyclone now over the Southwest will pivot into the TX panhandle vicinity by 12Z Sun, then lift newd across the cntl Plains and upr MS Valley through the end of the forecast period, while deepening. Downstream, and on the nwrn through nrn periphery of a mid/upr-level anticyclone forecast to linger off the South Atlantic coast, a ridge will progress across and offshore the Middle Atlantic. As the ridge progresses across and east of cntl NC, mid/upr-level flow will back to swly and strengthen amid weakly falling heights, with an associated thickening of a plume of cirrus and cirrostratus.

At the surface, warm, sub-tropical high pressure will continue to extend wwd across the South Atlantic states. Meanwhile, a cold front will move in backdoor fashion swwd across srn VA and nrn NC Sun afternoon-evening, then stall along an arc from near ROA to RWI to HSE Sun night.

It will be continued very warm in cntl NC Sun, but with less breezy and gusty sswly surface winds within a lessening MSL pressure gradient ahead of the approaching back door cold front and with near persistence high temperatures mostly 83-88 F, despite the aforementioned veil of considerable high clouds. Surface convergence along the front will focus a tongue and relative maximum of surface dewpoints in the lwr 60s F, and a related weak instability axis of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Point forecast soundings indicate much of that buoyancy will be capped by the lingering influence of the EML now maximized over the srn Middle Atlantic/Carolinas. An associated area of relatively more-concentrated (scattered) and locally deeper cumulus will probably result, but any weak updrafts that breach the cap will be hindered and opposed by both dry entrainment and a lack of any deeper lift/forcing mechanism amid the passing ridge aloft.
Any associated "pinhead", light shower or sprinkle should be too short-lived and isolated to warrant mentionable measurable PoP.

Point forecast soundings also indicate the backdoor front may be accompanied by a several hour period of nely surface winds up to 15- 20 kts in gusts immediately following its passage, mainly during the evening over the far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain. An area of post-frontal ceilings around 1000 ft AGL will also likely develop from nern NC and particularly points nwd into cntl VA Sun night-Mon morning. Low temperatures should be mainly upr 50s to lwr 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 321 PM Saturday...

The mid-level ridge will begin to breakdown Monday into Tuesday, as a strong upper trough lifts through the Great Lakes region. A series of weak short-waves will traverse overhead the rest of the week.
Models hint at another Great Lakes trough and associated embedded mid-level perturbations advecting across the eastern seaboard Friday into the weekend.

At the sfc, strong pre-frontal swly flow on Monday will promote another day of temps reaching the mid 80s. Dew points will generally hover in the mid 50s, as anomalous PWAT remains largely to our northwest. Given little upper or sfc forcing, Monday should remain mostly dry. As we pivot to the overnight, however, the influence of the upper trough and associated moisture flux will start to inch closer to our area. Will maintain a dry forecast through 12Z Tuesday for now, but would not be surprised if some showers reach the northwest Piedmont in the early Tuesday morning hours.

While the strong upper forcing will generally remain well north of our area Tuesday, sfc convergence along an advancing front, combined with increasing moisture flux will promote shower/thunderstorm chances across central NC. Expect a diurnal maxima in showers/tstorm coverage with highest POPs Tuesday afternoon. Bulk-layer shear will generally trend downwards with time Tuesday, but some afternoon lingering shear of 20 to 30 kts could coincide with the diurnal maxima of tstorms to promote perhaps a stronger storm or two.
Overall though, the severe risk seems limited given the aforementioned lack of upper forcing.

Anomalous moisture will linger through the rest of the extended, as the sfc front shifts south of us, stalls, and the rides north as a warm front by Friday. Weak perturbations will traverse overhead each day, promoting continued diurnal chances for showers and storms each day. A few stronger storms could be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening as a weak short-wave and associated pocket of moderately stronger shear moves over. Otherwise, severe weather is not expected through at least Friday.

As the next trough ejects across the Great Lakes, a bit better shear/upper forcing may extend south over central NC on Saturday.
However, some ensemble output only extends this stronger shear down into VA. Regardless, expect wet conditions to continue into the weekend.

Temperatures will be warm over this period, generally in the lower to mid 80s, with perhaps some relative reprieve into the upper 70s across the NC/VA border.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 155 PM Saturday...

Breezy and gusty swly surface winds this afternoon will diminish after sunset. VFR conditions are otherwise expected to prevail through the TAF period, while cntl NC remains under the influence of "Bermuda" high pressure.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front will be accompanied by a band of post- frontal, IFR-MVFR ceilings over sern VA and nern NC late Sun-Sun night, some of which may advance to near and especially just northeast of RWI Sun night-Mon morning. A several hour period of nely surface winds up to 15-20 kts in gusts will also be possible immediately following the passage of the front, which will also be most likely at RWI, during the evening Sun. A front and next chance of convection and flight restrictions will settle over NC Tue-Wed.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

April 19: KGSO: 92/1917 KRDU: 93/1941 KFAY: 94/1941

April 20: KGSO: 94/1917 KRDU: 93/1896 KFAY: 94/1917

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 20: KGSO: 65/1941 KRDU: 67/1896 KFAY: 69/2011

April 21: KGSO: 64/1927 KRDU: 70/1896 KFAY: 68/2017

April 22: KGSO: 63/1967 KRDU: 66/1909 KFAY: 64/1963

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.