Sunrise 6:51 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 3:25 PM   Moonset 4:01 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 192207 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 607 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front crosses the area, with unseasonably warm weather through Saturday. Much cooler temperatures and widespread light rain is expected Sunday with drier weather on Monday. Drier and warmer weather will return to the area Tuesday through next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 5:55 PM EDT Friday: Sct convection has developed over our eastern Upstate zones over the past couple of hours, with one storm becoming severe over Spartanburg County during the past hour and producing 1+ inch hail and 45+ kt wind gusts. The latest CAMs con- tinue to develop pockets of sct convection well into the evening across our area, with activity subsiding later tonight. With moder- ate amounts of bulk shear and instability in place, a few additional strong to svr storms are likely with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. I can't rule out some amount of storm organ- ization given the shear, but any significant organization appears unlikely.

Otherwise, convection should diminish/move east of the area later this evening as the cold front moves out of the area. Mid and high clouds will linger. Low clouds across the mtns, and possibly an isolated shower along the TN border, are expected overnight in the developing moist NW flow. Lows will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Some sunshine will be seen Saturday even though mid and high clouds remain. Guidance disagrees on the development of moist low level upglide during the afternoon as the cold front stalls just to our south and an area of low pressure moves east along the front.
Guidance blend keeps the area dry, so have gone that way for now.
Thickness values are lower, so highs should be lower as well. Went with the guidance blend which has highs near normal for the mtns and around 5 degrees above normal elsewhere. Of course, if the cloudier or wetter guidance is correct, then lows would end up cooler.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 210 PM Friday: Flow aloft starting off the short term period keeps it almost zonal Saturday night. By Sunday, a weak split trough breaks off from the central CONUS as a developing low dives toward the southeast and over the CWA Meanwhile, near the surface a strong area of high pressure amplifies eastward, bringing N/NE surface flow and an in-situ wedge setting up Sunday and into Monday. Both Sunday and Monday will feel much cooler than the past few days as temperatures dip well below climo. As the upper low approaches, flow becomes more SW and brings in a chance for some rainfall across most of the CWA, but should move out Sunday night. Monday looks to be drier and temps a tick warmer as the high pressure starts to deamplify. Overnight temps will be coldest on Monday night. While temps are not expected to drop below freezing at almost all locations, frost could be a possibility. Stay tuned. Overall, dreary Sunday with some rain, cool temps and dry conditions to start off the work week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 215 PM Friday: By Monday night, the upper low slides off the coast and guidance from the GFS and EURO show a strong upper low churning over the Midwest/Canada region. This could bring a weak boundary through the area Tuesday night, but nothing major is expected at this point. Once that boundary lifts out of the area, dry conditions return as a ridge builds back over the eastern CONUS.
As for any fire weather concerns, Tuesday may have some areas in the Piedmont that reach the 30 percent thresholds for RH, but winds are expected to remain light. Other than that, temperatures begin to warm back up through the period. Tuesday night looks to be the coldest with temps across the mountains, especially at the higher elevations, hovering near or right above freezing. Frost/freeze could be an issue, but will continue to monitor. Overall, the pattern looks quiet, mild, and dry for now.

AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low VFR cumulus will continue to develop through the afternoon. Expect convection to develop as well. Have timed TEMPOs to show the best timing for storms. Kept it out of KAND for now since they have a lower chance of seeing storms. WSW wind this afternoon for all but KAVL where NNW wind continues. Convection ends this evening with mid and high clouds remaining over the area.
MVFR cigs and vsby develop at KAVL overnight. Chance of restrictions elsewhere is low. Light W to NW wind overnight. N wind picks up speed with gusts at KAVl after daybreak. Low clouds scatter out but mid and high clouds continue.

Outlook: Rain and possibly isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop on Sunday as a low pressure center moves by just south of the area, likely resulting in restrictions for at least the southern part of the area. Drier conditions return Monday, continuing into Tuesday. A weak cold front moves in from the NW Wednesday, but chance of precip and associated restrictions is uncertain.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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