Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Franklin, NC

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:20PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 4:46 PM EST (21:46 UTC) Moonrise 4:29PMMoonset 5:45AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Franklin, NC
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location: 35.1, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 102049 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 349 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Cloudy conditions and occasional rain will persist until a cold front passes east of the region early Wednesday. Rain is forecast to briefly change to a light wintry mix before ending across the North Carolina mountains early Wednesday. Dry but cold high pressure will settle in behind the front for mid-week. Another round of brief wintry weather is possible early Friday as a coastal storm brings another round of moisture, but the bulk of this precipitation should fall as a cold rain.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 215 PM: The cold front continues to slowly make progress across the area this afternoon. Gusty winds have developed on both sides of the front and will diminish early this evening outside of the mountains but continue overnight across the mountains. Temps have warmed dramatically ahead of the front but will begin falling slowly as the front passes. Showers will spread across the area through the afternoon as well and continue into the evening.

Cold air will move in across the mountains by early evening and continue overnight. The guidance suggests that there will be a lingering low level warm nose even as temps near the surface cool. The entire column cools overnight. This will lead to a mixed bag of wintry precip with rain changing to freezing rain, then sleet and finally snow. That said, valley locations and counties away from the TN border will see some wintry mix, but little to no accumulations. Across the TN border counties, accumulations will be highly elevation dependent, even over the northern mountains. The recent relatively warm temps and precip will also keep accums from starting right away. The limiting factor will be that the cold air is moving in with the moisture instead of already being in place. As usual, the highest elevations will see the highest amounts. Up to 2 inches of a mix of snow and sleet and up to a tenth of an inch of ice accretion. Therefore, will issue a Winter Weather Advisory above 3500 feet for the TN border counties. Precip will end near daybreak.

Outside of the mountains, expect just showers with precip ending near or shortly after daybreak. Lows should be around 5 degrees above normal.

High pressure builds into the area Wednesday. Gusty winds will slowly diminish across the mountains. There may be some morning gusts outside of the mountains, especially in favorable gap wind locations. Skies will clear but highs will be up to 5 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 245 pm Tuesday: Overall, there is little change in the general thinking for the long-anticipated late-week system. We continue to expect a fairly short (<12hr) period of light freezing rain as moisture from Gulf Coast cyclogenesis and forcing from numerous perturbations within the SW flow aloft encounters a hybrid cold air damming surface pattern Friday morning. The current forecast is in line with previous forecasts and continues to call for light (less than 0.15") ice accumulations in climatologically favored areas of the NC Piedmont (primarily along and north of I-40), Foothills, Blue Ridge Escarpment, and central and northern mountains on Friday morning with a transition from freezing rain to rain for these areas fairly quickly late Friday morning. Fortunately, guidance continues to call for a strong (1040mb) but transient parent high-pressure to quickly move off the New England coast overnight Thursday into Friday as precip begins. The precip will have a cooling effect on the near surface airmass at least initially as it evaporates and "steals heat" from the near-surface atmosphere, allowing an in-situ damming scenario to occur early Friday while temperatures fall to near or just below freezing. However, without a parent high pressure system continually advecting in sub-freezing air from a cold source region like the Northeast US (instead we will be advecting air originating from the central Atlantic) the subsequent freezing of rain on sub-freezing surfaces will actually release "heat" into the near-surface atmosphere and work to moderate temperatures and limit accumulations. Therefore, this continues to look like a nuisance event that will complicate the Friday morning commute and require extra caution and due diligence, but should be a distant memory by Friday afternoon. Nevertheless, with cloud cover, precipitation, and in-situ wedging in place, temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 40s which is at least 8-10 degrees below normal. We will continue to highlight this event in the Hazardous Weather Outlook as there remains plenty of time for the specifics of the forecast to evolve.

The aforementioned system will propagate from the GoMex to the Atlantic in classic "Miller A" fashion during the day on Friday and model guidance is in general agreement that the area will require categorical PoPs until at least Friday evening as the low-pressure system lifts up the Carolina coastline. The 12Z NAM has backed off impressive upslope flow and precipitation accumulations Friday morning and now is more in line with the 12Z ECMWF, which brings the heaviest rainfall into the area, especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment and east, Friday afternoon into the evening hours while the 12Z GFS dry slots the area, limiting storm-total rainfall accumulations. Continued to lean on the wetter solutions for QPF with widespread 1-2" accumulations expected, though isolated higher amounts of 2-3" cannot be ruled out. Therefore, there is a marginal, low-level flood threat with this system later Friday but confidence remains very low and the threat appears to be isolated in nature. By Saturday afternoon, guidance is in agreement PoPs will be rapidly decreasing and most of the area should be dry to end the period.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 245 pm Tuesday: Sunday night, a weak shortwave is expected to quickly follow the rapidly departing and deamplifying shortwave responsible for the short-term weather. This may allow for slight chance PoPs to linger along the NC/TN state line overnight Sunday, but temperatures at this time appear warm enough to support just light rain save for the highest peaks. Thereafter, deterministic guidance agrees that the upper-level pattern will briefly flatten out or become zonal on Sunday while the next shortwave reaches the Desert Southwest. Without a cold airmass behind the system and with westerly flow downsloping off the mountains, high temperatures on Sunday may cool off a degree or two from Saturday but remain 2-5 degrees above normal.

With high pressure offshore, flow will gradually veer southeasterly and southerly across the eastern Carolinas on Monday as the next system develops to the lee of the Rockies and ejects eastward. Guidance is in agreement that with favorable southerly low-level flow originating from the GoMex, precip will break out along a warm front stretched out over the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River valleys during the day on Monday. With remnant high pressure wedging down the Blue Ridge spine, there may be some light shower activity along the favored upslope areas Monday into Monday evening and this activity may become a bit more focused Monday night as the system approaches from the west. With increased cloud cover due to weak upglide flow and the weak wedge in place, high temperatures are expected to be a degree or two cooler east of the mountains on Monday. Despite notable differences in the strength and amplitude of the responsible upper-level trough, there is general agreement that the attendant cold front will reach our area sometime on Tuesday and another healthy round of rainfall will accompany its passage, which is currently expected to occur quickly by Tuesday night. There are no notable p-type concerns with this system at this time as we remain underneath relatively warm SWly flow aloft and surface temperatures remain above freezing. However, the ECMWF and the GFS disagree as to how quickly the high-pressure wedge will erode ahead of the system, if at all, with the ECMWF keeping most of the area on the cool side of the system while the GFS brings a warm front through Tuesday morning. This makes temperatures a bit tricky and a blend was favored this far out. For now expect high temperatures to remain anywhere from near normal in the mountains and NC Piedmont and as much as 2-5 degrees above normal further south.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: Conditions have improved somewhat as wedge continues to dissipate. However, restrictions will continue as showers develop and move into the area. A cold front is crossing the area now causing gusty winds and a wind shift from SW to W then NW. KAVL has already shifted. Expect restrictions to continue into the evening before drier air moves in overnight bringing an end to precip and restrictions. Winds will drop off and become northerly but remain gusty at KAVL. KAVL may see a brief wintry mix, but do not expect any accums as better chances will be in the higher elevations. VFR expected for Wednesday as cold high pressure builds in. North to NE winds will continue through the day.

Outlook: Dry and cold high pressure should keep conditions settled Wed night and Thursday, but a moist low pressure system is likely to bring back restrictions Thursday night. With cold air in place at the onset of precipitation, FZRA could result in some ice accumulation Thursday night or Friday morning.

Confidence Table .

20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z KCLT High 91% High 80% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 94% Med 67% High 100% High 100% KAVL Med 72% High 86% High 100% High 100% KHKY Med 73% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU Med 77% Med 62% High 100% High 100% KAND High 82% Med 78% High 80% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . Winter Weather Advisory above 3500 feet from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ033-048>052-058. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . JDL NEAR TERM . RWH SHORT TERM . JMP LONG TERM . JMP AVIATION . RWH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC9 mi52 minN 510.00 miOvercast45°F41°F86%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K1A5

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Last 24hrS4S3SE3SE4SE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW9
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1 day agoSE3CalmCalmSE3E3CalmSE5SE6SE6E3E3NE3NE4NE6NE6CalmCalmE4S5E5CalmE4S4S5
2 days agoSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW4S6CalmS3S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.