Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Franklin, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 8:00PM Friday April 10, 2020 2:48 PM EDT (18:48 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 8:04AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Franklin, NC
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location: 35.1, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 101756 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 156 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cool and very dry high pressure will be moving off the Carolina coast by late Saturday. A strong storm system with abundant moisture will cross the Southeast Sunday and early Monday, bringing a threat of severe weather and flooding to portions of the region. Cooler and quieter weather will return Monday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 145 PM EDT: Main update for the 18Z TAF issuance with no major changes to the near term forecast. Dry conditions continue with breezy to gusty NW winds and current temperatures in the mid to upper 50s/around 60 degrees, cooler across the mountains. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for GA and NC counties, along with a Fire Danger Statement for SC counties, and a Wind Advisory for the NC mountains.

Previous discussion: A vigorous vort lobe will swing thru the area this morning, ushering in an uptick in strong NWLY CAA flow. Gusty winds and low humidity will be the story today. Winds in the 20-30 mph range and gusts in the 30-55 mph in the mountains means the current Wind Advisory is in good shape thru this aftn. Windy conditions combined with RH falling into the 15-25 percent range means fire weather concerns (see Fire Wx section below). Otherwise, it will be cool today under sunny skies (some mid to high clouds will exit to our east behind the vort lobe). Highs about 10 deg below normal.

Tonight, the center of sfc high pressure quickly settles over the region, resulting in winds becoming light and variable under clear skies. Should see good radiational cooling conditions and patchy frost is likely across much of the foothills and Piedmont (especially in NC). May need a Frost Advisory for portions of the area, but confidence is still not quite there to issue one with the morning package. Will let the day shift take one last look at the latest guidance to see where one may be needed by this aftn's package. In any case, lows will be about 8-10 deg below normal.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 230 AM Fri: Dry high pressure will migrate across the region Saturday, as a low-amplitude upper ridge drifts in from the west. A light southwesterly return flow will occur; dewpoints will start off quite low although they will rebound somewhat through the day. Winds look unlikely to be much of a factor, but low RH may pose fire wx concerns.

The sfc high will be fully offshore Saturday night into Sunday, and the return flow will continue. A well defined southern-stream shortwave will be captured by a deep northern trough Sunday over the central Plains, and a warm front will lift across the Southeast states ahead of the resultant sfc cyclone. Healthy 30-40 kt 850mb winds will quickly moisten up the column Sunday morning with the warm front, which along with a deep warm-cloud layer and PWAT values likely to exceed the 90th percentile, will support heavy rainfall rates with the warm frontal precip, and especially from any elevated t-storms. A strong sfc inversion likely will be in place during the day owing to the strong WAA. Nonzero chance that in-situ CAD (or a lookalike setup) will occur and potentially keep temps in the 40s and 50s across the CWA, but for now have just lowered temps below the blend. This inversion, and/or wedge, will erode Sunday night as we enter the warm sector immediately ahead of the system's cold front, as the (by then) negatively tilted shortwave rounds the upper trough. Based on consensus of global models, exceptional shear (0-1km > 40 kt, 0-3km well over 50 kt) looks likely to overlap with a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE. Especially in light of the strong 0-1km shear, which indicates a threat of significant tornadoes, late Sunday into early Monday morning is looking somewhat harrowing for our area, if models maintain current trend. SPC already planning to highlight area in Slight Risk on Day 3 outlook. The setup looks to have potential for flash flooding as well, with the warm frontal activity saturating soils and then torrents resulting from the convection Sunday night, even though storm motion should be remarkably fast given such strong flow aloft. WPC has included the Escarpment in a Moderate Risk on the D3 Excessive Rain product, and Slight Risk for the remainder of the CWA.

The prefrontal convection/precip band should exit the eastern CWA around or just after daybreak Monday, leaving the remainder of the short term period dry, but with gusty winds and warm downslope temps in the front's wake. Can't rule out a lingering Wind Advisory for some of the area during the day given strength of sfc pressure gradient and brisk 925-850mb winds.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 330 AM Fri: Cool high pressure will expand across the area in the wake of the early week front, as a longwave trough dominates the pattern across the CONUS. Discrepancy continues between the GFS and the EC/CMC camp. While the GFS features only a couple fleeting rounds of precip across the mountains as disturbances blow by within the aforementioned trough, the EC/CMC depict coastal cyclogenesis Tuesday night and Wednesday as a shortwave interacts with the old front. The latter solution is reflected in enough ensemble solutions to warrant a chance-range PoP in that timeframe. Temps will run below normal thru the period, with overnight temps in the 30s at higher elevations concurrent with the precip. The wetter solutions would tend to be warmer as well, so a snow mention is only made where temps are near freezing. Current fcst temps could support some patchy frost Mon and Wed nights in the NW NC Piedmont and SW mountains; the SW mountains will not see their frost-freeze program activated until Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. At KCLT and Elsewhere: Expect VFR to prevail through the valid TAF period with nearly clear skies for the rest of today as sfc high pressure continues to build in. Breezy to gusty north-northwest winds continue to be the main concern at the TAF sites this afternoon, but do anticipate over the next few hours for gusts to subside as the pressure gradient relaxes. Though, gusts may linger a few hours longer at KAVL. Sustained winds around 10 to 12 kts will linger through roughly 02Z before dropping to AOB 5 kts for the overnight hours. VFR will prevail on Saturday with winds becoming south-southwesterly, increasing to 5 to 7 kts in the afternoon.

Outlook: A strong low pressure system will bring widespread precipitation and flight restrictions Sunday afternoon through early Monday. Otherwise expect VFR.

Confidence Table .

18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

FIRE WEATHER. Breezy northwest winds will continue through mid-afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph across the Piedmont. Combined with humidity of 15 to 25 percent in the same area and dry fuels, a Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for South Carolina. In Northeast Georgia, in coordination with land managers, a Red Flag Warning is in effect. After coordination with officials this morning, a Red Flag Warning is now in effect for the NC Foothills and Piedmont.

Winds will be much weaker Saturday, but minimum humidity is nevertheless forecast to be in the 20 to 30 percent range, possibly warranting a new suite of Fire Danger Statements. Cooler conditions are expected Sunday as rain develops. Heavy rainfall will occur across much of the region Sunday afternoon and night.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-017- 018-026-028-029. NC . Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033- 035>037-048>050-052-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-303- 501>510. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-048>050- 053-065-501-503-505-507-509. Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . 08 NEAR TERM . ARK/12 SHORT TERM . 08 LONG TERM . 08 AVIATION . 12 FIRE WEATHER . ARK/SGL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC9 mi54 minNW 910.00 miFair51°F17°F26%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K1A5

Wind History from 1A5 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW3SW4CalmW8W10W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.