Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 3:56 PM   Moonset 3:55 AM

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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 1025 Pm Pdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Tonight - NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 to 4 ft at 7 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds. Sat night - NW winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell nw 3 to 5 ft at 7 seconds and S 3 ft at 17 seconds. Sun - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell nw 4 to 6 ft at 8 seconds and S 3 ft at 17 seconds. Sun night - NW winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds and S 3 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog. Mon night - W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Wed - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 1025 Pm Pdt Fri Apr 19 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 04z, or 9 pm pdt, a 1021 mb high was centered 800 nm southwest of point conception and a 1003 mb low was over new mexico.

FXUS66 KLOX 200616 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1116 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
19/1118 PM.

Strong onshore flow in place will weaken on Saturday. Better clearing is forecast for most of the area, except for the Ventura County beaches. A warming trend will establish today through Sunday as weak high pressure develops. Significant cooling along with a deep marine layer are expected next week as low pressure moves into the area. In addition, there is a slight chance of showers or drizzle late next week.

.SHORT TERM (TNT-MON)...19/943 PM.

***UPDATE***

Today saw persistent marine layer clouds for coasts and valleys, lasting into the afternoon for LA County, and all-day for Ventura County, eastern Santa Barbara County, and portions of the Central Coast. These clouds dampened daytime heating, leading to highs reminiscent of wintertime and 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.

Winds will be calm tonight, except for the Santa Barbara SW Coast, where NW gusts up to 35 mph are possible into early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow afternoon and overnight, NW wind gusts 25-40 mph will develop for the mountains of SLO, SBA, and Ventura Counties. The most impactful winds will be for the Santa Barbara SW Coast and the I-5 Corridor, however gusts are currently expected to remain below advisory level.

Tomorrow deep marine layer clouds will return, but will clear earlier in the day. Temperatures are expected to be 2 to 6 degrees warmer for most locations. However, there is the potential for temperatures to be up to 5 degrees cooler than forecasted if clouds persist into the afternoon, particularly for coasts and adjacent valleys south of Point Conception.

Generally the forecast is on track, the most significant changes for this update were slight dropping of coastal temperatures south of Point Conception, in line with slow clearing marine layer clouds.

***From Previous Discussion***

Models appear to be on track with the warming trend over the weekend and decreasing stratus. Sunday is expected to be significantly warmer at least for inland areas where highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected. Most coastal areas will be warmer too but still with the effects of the cool onshore breeze keeping temps on the mild side, but with a degree or two of normal.

Monday will begin a long duration cooling trend that will last through the following weekend as a series of low pressure systems hit the West Coast. Still at or above normal in most areas Monday but at least a few degrees cooler than Sunday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...19/216 PM.

A series of troughs will move through the West Coast and California next week keeping temperatures well below normal with moderate to strong onshore flow each day, a solid marine layer with slower than usual clearing, and breezy onshore winds in the mountains and deserts. By Tuesday or Wednesday high temperatures in all areas will in the mid to high 60s at most with chances for morning drizzle each day through the week. The coolest days with the highest chances for either drizzle or light rain will be Thursday and Friday when the deepest trough arrives. Models have bounced around with the trajectory, some showing a wetter and farther west trajectory but more showing a less wet but cooler inside track. 500mb heights drop into the high 550's across the area, and high temps may still be too high in the official forecast as patterns like this often result in mostly low to mid 60s and little if any sunshine across coast/valleys. A lot will depend on the ultimate track of the system and how deep the moisture is.

Temps are expected to slowly rebound by next weekend but still likely well below normal through the end of the month.

AVIATION
20/0616Z.

Around 0530Z, the marine layer depth was around 1000 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was around 4000 feet with a temperature near 15 degrees Celsius.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence in timing. Lower confidence in flight categories. IFR to MVFR conditions are expected through at least 16Z at most coastal and valley terminals. There is a moderate (30-40 percent)
chance that conditions could be one category lower than forecast between 08Z and 14Z. Better clearing is expected on Saturday with good confidence in the clearing times.

KLAX...MVFR conditions will spread into KlAX between 07Z and 09Z.
There is a 30 percent chance of IFR conditions between 10Z and 14Z. There is a 50 percent chance of VFR conditions developing after 20Z.

KBUR...MVFR conditions will spread into KBUR between 08Z and 10Z.
There is a 30 percent chance of IFR conditions between 10Z and 14Z. VFR conditions should develop between 16Z and 18Z.

MARINE
19/1038 PM.

High confidence in winds staying below 20 knots through Saturday morning, however may see local gusts around 20 knots tonight between Point Conception and Santa Rosa Island. Seas will remain small as well.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and choppy seas forming quickly Saturday afternoon for the Central Coast offshore waters down to San Nicolas Island. These winds will persist through the weekend. May need to expand the SCA for the southern most outer waters. There is a 40 percent chance of SCA winds for the nearshore Central Coast waters and a 10 percent chance for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel on Saturday. Those chances increase by 20 percent on Sunday. All areas will see building short period seas from these winds.

Winds will weaken Monday and Tuesday, but will stay near SCA south of Point Conception with choppy seas over most areas continuing.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Saturday to 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Avila
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Sat -- 02:47 AM PDT     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:56 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:28 AM PDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:48 PM PDT     -1.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:55 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:13 PM PDT     1.72 feet High Tide
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Avila, California, Tide feet

Port San Luis Wharf
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Sat -- 03:09 AM PDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:56 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:58 AM PDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:10 PM PDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:56 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:24 PM PDT     4.76 feet High Tide
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Port San Luis Wharf, California, Tide feet

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