Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocracoke, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 0315 Monday...SFC high will continue to shift off the SE coast as weak boundary and shortwave lift through the Carolinas. Increasing isentropic lift has led to a slug of light rainfall quickly approaching the FA, set to work through portions of eastern NC this morning and off the coast while dissipating in the early afternoon. Continue LKLY PoPs across inland zones working NE to NOBX through day, with SChc-Chc PoPs over Sern coast. Rainfall amounts still look light, generally 0.15" or less. Have all precip clearing land areas by 1500est. Despite cloudy skies all day, low level thickness values thanks to WAA regime support warmer temps, a few deg above normal, with highs climbing into the upper 50s to mid 60s, warmest Crystal Coast.
Late this afternoon, a second midlevel wave will approach the FA leading to another uptick in rain chances.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 0315 Monday...A much weaker midlevel disturbance passes overhead after sunset keeping rain chances in the forecast.
The area for best isentropic lift shifts over the coast this round as some subsidence spills over the coastal plain zones, focusing rain for the first part of tonight toward the Crystal Coast. Even though this second wave isn't as amplified as the first, there will be more moisture associated with it, leading to some higher QPF amounts, 0.25-0.50in possible. Light Serly winds, OVC low level stratus and light rain makes more a muggy night relative to what we've been experiencing, MinTs in low 50s far inland, upper 50s to low 60s beaches.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 330 AM Mon...Upper level flow becomes increasingly amplified across the CONUS through mid week as several northern stream shortwaves dig into the Plain states.

Tuesday...After several impulses moving through early this week, Tuesday there appears to be a minimum in rain chances as brief ridging is in place in response to digging/deepening shortwave across the OH/TN Valley. Have generally a 20% chc of showers through the day. By evening, better chances for rain as inc low level moisture flux overspreads ENC, though axis of heavier showers should still be to our west. Have cont the likely pops for Tue night. Warm and humid conditions with highs around 70 interior to the 60s beaches with cool onshore flow.

Wednesday...Strong jet dynamics and frontal forcing combined with deep SW flow aloft advecting Gulf moisture feed across the region will likely bring beneficial rainfall amounts across much of the region. Probs for greater than 1 inch of rain increases to ~80 percent Wednesday, and this will be reflected in the fcst grids. We will be in a high shear/very low instability environment on Wednesday with 50+ kt 0-6km shear and less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE. Most of ENC will be entrenched in a stable marine layer as wind direction will be around 180-200 degrees, advecting in cool air over top SST's in the 40s and 50s. Best chc for a storm will remain over the far SE, acrs ern Carteret and the srn OBX south of Oregon Inlet where CAPES may creep up towards 500 J/KG, and this is where slght chc thunder is depicted. Categorical pops during the day quickly drop to chc Wed evening and then completely dry after midnight as front will be well offshore. Highs Wed in the low 70s interior to 60s coastal locales.

Thursday through Saturday...Arctic high pressure builds back into the area late in the week with mainly sunny/clear skies and temps dropping well below normal once again with high in the 40s and lows in the 20s for Thu/Fri, then moderating into the 50s for Sat with lows mainly in the 30s.

Sunday...Next potential system arrives by late in the weekend, though spaghetti's and cluster analysis indicate large spread on mesoscale details and placement of shortwave troughing. Have a general 20-30% rain chance at this time.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 0030 Monday...VFR flight cats expected through the overnight with increasing cloud coverage. Light southwest winds overnight will transition to around ~10 kt. Inland terminals (PGV and ISO) will have the greatest chance (~60%) of seeing rain today, which could be accompanied by brief periods of MVFR, have included tempo groups to highlight this window. Light showers are possible across ENC through early afternoon, which will be followed by a break before chances increase again after sunset when another shortwave pushes through bringing better chances for widespread subVFR overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Mostly dry on Tue, but then inc chances for sub- VFR Tue night through Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This front will bring gusty southerly winds and periods of moderate to heavy precip, centered on Wednesday. VFR again by Wed night as front quickly moves offshore, with high pres bringing good flying cond through late week.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 0320 Monday...Latest Obs show offshore winds WSW 10-15G20kt with inland waters more Serly 10-15kt with seas 1-3 ft north of Hatt, 3-5 ft south. A brief uptick in winds associated with passage of shortwave will lift through the waters this morning, which could bring a brief wind surge with occasional gusts to 25 kt. Looks too marginal and short-lived for a headline, but the potential is worth mentioning here. Bit of a lull in winds behind the shortwave this afternoon, back to 10-12kt before increasing again to 10-15G20kt this evening and tonight. Better rain chances over inland waters during day, better chances Pam Sound and offshore waters overnight when second shortwave passes through.

LONG TERM /Tue through Fri/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Winds will be light in the 5-15 kt range out of the SW and seas around 2-4 ft through Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches Tuesday night and crosses the region later Wednesday and will see southerly winds increasing to SCA winds across the sounds and rivers, as well as the nrn waters. A stout marine inversion will be in place as warm air overtops the cold waters keeping winds lower here. Gales are expected across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet where better mixing will occur over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Wave guidance showing seas building to 8-15 ft peaking ahead of the front on Wednesday. Winds become NW around 20-30 kt Wednesday night behind the front with winds and seas gradually diminishing late Wednesday night and Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.