Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocracoke, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend.

2) Well below normal temperatures expected late next week and weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler airmass continues to build into the area this morning behind yesterday's cold front as high pressure expands in from the west. Today will be the coolest day of the week until next weekend (see the next key message) with highs in the low to mid 60s. With periods of light winds tonight, likely interrupted by a reinforcing front passing over, some patchy frost is possible overnight in well sheltered areas where lows may fall into the upper 30s. This may be tempered by a thick deck of cirri passing overhead.

Monday night continues to look like the best candidate for more widespread frost as skies remain clear and winds inland will likely be calm as the high crests overhead. Like the previous shift, nudged overnight lows down a few degrees closer to NBM 10th percentile, and did the same for Tuesday night with little change in the pattern, resulting in forecast lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Beyond this period, guidance continues to depict an increasingly unsettled pattern as complex mid-level low deepens over the eastern CONUS and likely drives coastal low development off the east coast. Evolution and strength of the low remain uncertain, but it will at least bring our best chances of rain for the period and breezier conditions across the Outer Banks.
Stay tuned for more details in the coming days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continues to strongly hint at unseasonable cold temperatures next weekend behind the low pressure system. While there is inherent uncertainty 7 days out, CPC does have a slight risk of much below normal temperatures for our coastal plain counties next weekend. This will be worth monitoring for any freeze headlines, as the end of the growing season is Nov 25 for our land forecast zones.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 0630est...High pressure expands over terminals from the west with low departing to NE. VFR flight cats in place through bulk of near term. Some clouds>FL200 through day clear through SUN morning to become SKC second half of today through tonight.
Thin layers of patchy MIFG possible in areas that decouple temporarily, but background winds are forecast to stay in the 3-5kt range. Have included tempo groups for this ground fog potential, but not expecting any significant impacts to flight ops. NW-N winds in the morning becoming predominantly W this afternoon and eventually SW this evening. Winds AoB 5kt. Dry front crosses late tonight without any significant impacts.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected with much drier airmass and high pressure over the region through midweek.

MARINE
Secondary surge of dry air is driving an uptick in NW winds this morning with winds of 15-20 kt and occasional gusts to 25 kt, but seas have managed to fall below 6 feet. This surge will end by morning with lighter winds of 5-15 kt expected after sunrise today. Main feature of interest is a second dry cold front expected to transit the waters on Monday, with guidance trending upward in SW to W winds ahead of the front at 15-20 kt with higher gusts. This surge also looks marginal for gusts, but considering higher antecedent seas it will likely be enough to boost seas back above 6 feet for much of Monday. Therefore, issued a new SCA for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet.

Outlook: Benign boating conditions expected through the period with NW winds backing W to SW by mid-week ahead of the next storm system expected to impact the region beyond Wednesday.
Magnitude of impacts remains uncertain but at least SCA conditions and elevated seas are likely for most waters into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ150- 152-154.