Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocracoke, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Well above normal to near record conditions expected mid week with high pressure ridging offshore.

2) Strong cold front moves through the region Thursday.

Aviation...LIFR conditions possible tonight into Monday morning (50-70% chance).

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some weak upper troughs will traverse the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight promoting diurnal showers across ENC, though any precip that falls today will be light at best.
However, the general trend is for an anomalously strong ridge to overspread the Southeastern CONUS later tonight into Tuesday with this ridge not moving through Wednesday. NAEFS standardized anomalies continue to suggest this ridging is about 2-3 standard deviations above normal for the time of year across the area. As a result this will continue to bring well above avg temperatures to Eastern North Carolina with near record to record high temperatures possible on Tue/Wed out ahead of an even stronger cold front (See CLIMATE Section below). Biggest threat for breaking records will be across inland locations as relatively cool water temps should moderate high temps in the 60s and 70s near the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Really not much change in forecast thinking for Thursdays front. Across the upper levels, a cut off low near the Baja Peninsula will steadily trek E'wards across Texas and the Gulf States this week eventually getting absorbed within an incoming positively to neutrally tilted upper level trough which will be moving across the Northern Plains and Ohio River Valley. This trough then tracks across the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic on Thursday potentially gaining a negative tilt. At the surface, a deepening low pressure system will be tracking NE'wards across the Great Lakes and Interior Northeast while its associated strong cold front sweeps E'wards across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Ahead of this front, strong southwesterly winds will help bring up moisture, with PWATs modeled to be in the 1.25-1.5" range. The speed and how quickly the upper level low gets absorbed by the incoming trough will have an impact on how strong the aforementioned surface low will get and how quickly the incoming cold front moves across the region. Latest guidance has the GFS and its ensembles the most progressive with this system, moving the front through the area Thurs morning with the ECMWF and Canadian guidance slightly slower progressing the front across the region closer to Thurs afternoon. With this in mind, there is some discrepancy with how much instability there is available across ENC, but general thinking is CAPEs will remain quite low, and thus a threat for thunder is less than 20% for most areas, with 20% or higher thunder risks relegated to areas east of Hwy 17 and south of Oregon Inlet and in vicinity of the warmer Gulf waters. Given the impressive dynamics of this system, elected to not use NBM winds for Thursday as they appear to be much too low. Current forecast has wind gusts 30-35 mph. Behind the front cool, dry air moves in for Thursday night/Friday.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mix of VFR, MVFR and LIFR across the terminals early this morning, in combo of fog and low stratus. Guidance shows a strong signal for IFR conditions continuing through mid morning.
Best chances for areas of denser fog will be across the SW...along with sea fog along the coast. LIFR PROBABILITY (through this morning): 50-70% for all terminals. Low CIGs /VIS should improve during the day today, with VFR conditions expected by this afternoon. Areas of fog may re- develop again overnight into Tue morning.

Outlook...A front will likely stall near the region continuing to bring chances for sub-VFR conditions to ENC through Tue (mainly periods of fog and stratus) before widespread VFR conditions officially return on Wed. Sub-VFR may return Thursday with scattered to numerous showers.

MARINE
Ongoing rain and isolated thunderstorm activity continue to impact our marine waters this morning but should come to an end soon. Overall much of this activity is very weak, but locally elevated winds and seas are possible within any thunderstorms.
Otherwise, winds and seas continue to ease across our waters with S'rly winds fallen to about 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts and 3-5 ft seas across the coastal waters currently noted.
As a result, the ongoing Small Craft Advisories have ended and expect benign boating conditions to persist across our waters today as winds remain light (generally at 5-10 kts coming from the S-SW) and seas along our coastal waters lower further to 2-4 ft with 1 ft seas noted inland and along the immediate coast through tonight.

Sea fog has re-developed across the northern and central waters this morning and will likely continue through at least this afternoon, possibly into tonight and Tuesday. Marine DFA has been issued. Will continue to watch the southern waters for reduced vsbys. Fog may become denser closer to sunrise with winds laying down.

Outlook (Tuesday through Friday): Benign boating conditions forecast through Wed with widespread 5-10 kt winds and 2-4 ft seas forecast. However, a stronger front will likely cross the waters Thursday. SW winds will strengthen ahead of the front Wed night with SCA conditions likely (Gales over the warmer Gulf Stream). Winds turn NW and then NE and remain gusty Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening behind the front. Winds and seas diminish rapidly Thursday night and Friday as dry high pressure ridge builds overhead. Benign boating conditions then persist into the weekend.

CLIMATE
Record High temps for 3/10 (Tuesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1974 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/2000 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 84/2000 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 86/1974 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 85/2009 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 84/1974 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 3/11 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/2015 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 73/1982 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 83/2016 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 83/1974 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 84/2000,2015 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 86/2015 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-150- 152-154-231.