Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocracoke, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:57PM Monday November 30, 2020 11:32 AM EST (16:32 UTC) Moonrise 5:13PMMoonset 7:00AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 955 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers late this morning and early afternoon, then a chance of showers late.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocracoke, NC
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location: 35.12, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 301515 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1015 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. A strong and complex low pressure system will impact the region today. Cool high pressure will then build over the area Tuesday through Thursday. Another strong low pressure system will likely impact the area this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1005 AM Mon . Currently in a dry slot for the next hour or two. Watching the next line of showers and tstorms currently off the coast of Cape Lookout and SC moving NNE towards our southern coast. Expecting a bulk of this rainfall to push across a bulk of the Crystal Coast and OBX regions. Mesoanalysis still showing solid severe parameters over the region and the forecast remains on track from the prev disc.

Prev disc . A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will continue to move up the central Appalachians today. The attendant warm front is now well north of the area, with its cold front lagging well to the west still. No major changes to the forecast today, as we are still expecting a risk of severe thunderstorms, as well as strong gusty gradient winds, and coastal flooding along the Outer Banks.

Convection currently over the area associated with deep moisture along and south of the warm front will push offshore over the next hour or two. Then, there is likely to be a brief dry slot over the area where clouds may briefly clear. Deeper moisture eventually moves back over the area ahead of the cold front late this morning/early afternoon, and a narrow line or broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop and push east across the area. There will likely be additional storms over the immediate coast and offshore during this time as well.

Severe parameters are expected become more favorable during the course of the day thanks to expanding instability, with MUCAPE values 1000-1500 J/kg possible, while strong dynamics remain over the area (50-60 kts bulk shear, and SRH +200 m2/s2). A slight risk for severe thunderstorms continues today, with the main hazards being isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, with supercells or bowing segments the favored convective mode.

Additionally, good mixing under strong southerly/southwesterly flow will promote potentially damaging wind gusts of 45-55 mph for a several hour period across most of the area late this morning into the afternoon, so have expanded the Wind Advisory for the whole area today.

Lastly, temperatures today will be very mild and potentially near record highs if enough clearing can happen. Expect highs to reach the low to mid 70s, but there is potential if there are a few decent breaks of sun for some locations to reach the upper 70s to around 80.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. As of 400 AM Mon . As the cold front pushes across the area early tonight winds will subside somewhat, and any precip remaining will push offshore. Strong cold air advection will then ensue even though winds only turn to the SW, due to the cold upper level low approaching from the west. Temps will drop through the 50s and 40s tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 30s over the coastal plain to the upper 40s across the Outer Banks.

Also a few widely scattered showers or sprinkles are possible as upper level energy moves overhead overnight

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 3 AM Mon . Cold high pressure will build into the area through midweek. Another strong low pressure system will likely impact the area this weekend.

Tuesday through Thursday . High pressure will slowly build across the southern US behind the cold front, featuring mostly dry wx and temps several deg below normal. A few showers or sprinkles will be possible across the northern forcast area early Tue with the upper trough. A much colder airmass will filter into the area and linger through mid week. 850mb temp anomolies 10-15 degrees C below normal. Highs Tue and Wed will be in the upper 40s to low- 50s, warming into the mid- upper 50s Thu. Overnight lows will drop to or below freezing for most inland locations Wed and Thu mornings.

Friday through Monday . Models still show a low pressure system impacting the area this weekend, but quite a bit different with respect to timing and specifics. High pressure will continue to shift offshore Friday. Sfc low is progged to strengthen and lift through the SE while strong upper low over the central plains and approaches the Carolinas. Forecast specifics still tbd, but periods of heavy rain, strong winds and coastal impacts all possible.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /Through Tuesday Morning/ . As of 655 AM Mon . A mix of IFR and VFR conditions are present across the airspace this morning as a large storm system moves through the region. Some IFR conditions could linger for the next couple hours, but think predominately there should be an increase in ceiling height to MVFR and likely VFR levels through mid to late morning. Then, additional shower and thunderstorm activity will likely cause a return to MVFR conditions with some IFR possible. Later this afternoon as convection exits the coast, VFR conditions will return for the remainder of the TAF period.

Very strong winds will continue with this storm system, which could cause some issues at terminals later today as the atmosphere becomes well mixed and even stronger wind gusts can come down to the surface. Southwesterly winds gusts of 35-45 kts are likely across the entire airspace from late morning through the afternoon before winds subside this evening.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/ . As of 3 AM Mon . Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure in control. W wind gusts 20-25 kt expected Tue.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Tonight/ . As of 700 AM Mon . Hazardous boating conditions are expected through the short term as a strong low pressure system moves across the area. Gale Warnings continue across the coastal waters and sounds, and have issued new Gales for a period of strong gusty winds later today across the inland rivers and Albemarle Sound.

Winds this morning will be very strong out of the S 25-35 kts, with gusts 40-45 kts. Then later today winds will continue out of the south, but become gustier, especially over the inland sounds and rivers where 35-45 kt gusts are possible. As the cold front pushes across the area tonight, winds will turn to the SW, but only subside somewhat becoming 20-30 kts.

Seas are expected to continue to build this morning, and peak around 10-17 ft, and then slowly subside overnight to 6-11 ft by tomorrow morning.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/ . As of 3 AM Mon . Gusty winds and dangerous seas expected to continue into Tue. Winds become W 20-30 kt Tue with seas subsiding to 5-9 ft. W winds 15-20 kt Wed morning diminishing to 10-20 kt, with seas 3-5 ft. Much better conditions expected across the waters Thursday with NW-W winds 5-10 kt and seas 1-3 ft. High pressure will shift offshore Thu night and Fri with winds becoming S 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 3 AM Mon . Strong S/SW winds will continue ahead of a cold front today, which will likely result in minor coastal flooding and rough surf for portions of the NC coast. Coastal Flood Advisory continues for soundside areas along the Outer Banks north of Buxton for potential inundation 1-2 ft agl Monday. Extended the advisory into Tue afternoon, with some guidance showing the threat for inundation continuing with persistent strong WSW flow. Low water levels will be possible across the Neuse and Bay Rivers into Tue. High Surf Advisory also continues for rough surf and potential for minor beach erosion from Oregon Inlet to North Topsail.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for NCZ195-199. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ196-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ196-204-205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ203-205. MARINE . Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ131-136-137- 230-231. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ135-150. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-154-156- 158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . SGK/ML SHORT TERM . SGK LONG TERM . CQD AVIATION . CQD/SGK MARINE . DAG/CQD/SGK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 16 mi44 min S 17 G 23 64°F1003.8 hPa
41025 - Diamond Shoals 34 mi22 min S 31 G 43 76°F 75°F70°F
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi92 min S 22 G 25 73°F 1004.5 hPa (-1.4)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 46 mi44 min S 22 G 26 64°F1003.6 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC21 mi41 minS 20 G 282.50 miFog/Mist and Breezy71°F69°F94%1003.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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1 day ago4445NW4CalmNE3N46NE43N3CalmNE3NE3NE3NE4NE5NE3NE4NE5NE6NE7
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2 days ago3N3N5N4N4N43N3N5434NW55343N4Calm33N35NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2)
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:28 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:29 AM EST     1.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:21 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:45 PM EST     0.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.10.20.50.811.21.21.10.90.60.40.20.10.10.30.50.80.910.90.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina (2)
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Hatteras Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:49 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     2.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:42 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:29 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.30.71.21.72.12.32.321.510.50.20.20.40.81.21.61.91.91.61.20.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.