Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocracoke, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 7:09 AM EDT (11:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:15PMMoonset 10:50AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 325 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocracoke, NC
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location: 35.12, -75.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 210748
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
348 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will extend west into eastern north
carolina through mid week as a trough lingers well inland. A
cold front will slowly approach the area late this week and move
through the region this weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 340 am Wednesday... Mid and high clouds continue over the
region early this morning, although a few sprinkles have been
detected on radar near the crystal coast and just offshore.

Moist southwest flow coupled with some weak shortwave energy in
the mid-levels today will lead to a decent coverage of showers
and thunderstorms, especially during the later afternoon and
evening hours. Using a consensus of some of the high-resolution
models, would expect the best chance for convective initiation
to again be the northern and western tier, mainly west of
highway 17 and north of highway 264. Will have 40-50 percent
pops in these areas, tapering to just a slight chance along the
southern coast and southern outer banks. High temperatures today
will be mostly within a degree or two of 90 degrees, except mid
80s outer banks.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 340 am Wednesday... Coverage of showers and storms should
diminish by late evening inland, but given the very moist
airmass, will keep low rain chances near the immediate coast
through the overnight hours. Very warm and humid once again
tonight with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 300 am wed... High pressure will extend over the area
Thursday with only scattered thunderstorms expected. A cold
front will approach the area Friday, and then slowly cross
through the forecast area over the weekend, leading to another
period of unsettled weather which may continue into next week.

Thursday and Friday... Lee trough over central nc will help kick
off some showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon over the
coastal plain, with the sea breeze possibly sparking some
additional activity closer to the coast. Will keep chance pops
through the evening inland, and then shift pops over the coast
Thursday night as some offshore convection is expected to
develop and may move over coastal areas overnight. A cold front
will slowly move into the area Friday, and will act to trigger
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorm especially
over the northern sections of the area. Have chance to likely
pops for this region, with some heavy rain and training cells
possible.

High temps both days will reach the low 90s inland, and the mid
to upper 80s along the coast. Low temps remain warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday... Better agreement between model guidance
has finally been reached, and it looks like the cold front will
slowly drop through nc on Saturday, passing south of the region
and off the southern nc coast by Saturday night. Have increased
pops to likely at times over the weekend where the best
coverage of precip is anticipated as the front moves south.

Heavy rain and training of cells is possible and flooding may be
an issue, especially considering the copious amounts of rain we
have seen this past week.

On the bright side, cooler temps are expected, with temps
ranging from the low to upper 80s on Saturday... Highest along
the southern coast, where it will stay dry the longest. Then on
Sunday, low 80s expected everywhere as cooler air moves in up in
northern nc, and cloudy conditions limit highs over the southern
tier. Low temps more seasonable, reaching the upper 60s to
low mid 70s.

Monday and Tuesday... Model differences exist for the start of
next week, with the GFS stalling the front and immediately
bringing it back north on Monday leading to more rain chances,
while the ECMWF keeps the front stalled and more less over the
gulf stream, with high pressure building in from the north,
keeping the area mostly dry. Will hedge towards a middle ground
for now, and keep chance pops both Monday and Tuesday. Cooler
temperatures will likely continue with highs only in the low to
mid 80s, and low temps into the 60s and low 70s.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through 06z Thursday ...

as of 1255 am Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected through
this TAF cycle as high clouds should preclude much in the way of
fog formation overnight. Afternoon diurnally-driven showers
and thunderstorms will again be possible on Wednesday afternoon.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 315 am wed... MostlyVFR conditions expected through
Friday morning, when scattered to more widespread convection
develops as a cold front moves into the area. The front will
slowly move south through the airspace this weekend, leading to
some periods of extended low visibilities and ceilings with
continued high chances for rain and thunderstorms.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 345 am Wednesday... Winds are SW at 10-15 knots early this
morning with seas at 2-3 feet with 10-11 second swell periods.

With an approaching surface trough to the west and bermuda high
pressure lingering offshore, the gradient will tighten later
today and into tonight. Current indication are for SW winds of
15-20 knots, with a few gusts to 25 knots. Latest nwps swan
model indicates only a small and brief area of 6-foot seas, so
will hold off on any SCA for now and let the dayshift re-
evaluate based on later guidance.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 320 am wed... Near small craft conditions will be possible
from Thursday morning through early Saturday morning, with winds
sw 15-20 and occasional wind gusts to 25 kts. Seas will be
mostly 4-5 ft, but some periods of 6 ft seas are possible over
the outer portions of the coastal waters. Will hold off on
an advisory for now.

Winds and seas then weaken slightly as a slow moving cold front
enters the region. Winds will turn to the W at 10-15 kts
Saturday morning, and then as the front slowly sinks south
Saturday, winds will turn to the N NE behind it, but turn to the
s south of the front around 10 kts. Winds will then turn to the
ne on Sunday for all waters and range from 10-15 kts over the
northern waters to 5-10 kts over the southern waters. 3-5 ft
seas will continue through Saturday morning, and then seas
become 2-4 ft through Sunday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Sgk
aviation... Ctc sgk
marine... Ctc sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 16 mi58 min SW 8 G 9.9 80°F 84°F1019 hPa
41025 - Diamond Shoals 34 mi40 min SW 14 G 18 82°F 83°F1018.9 hPa78°F
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi70 min SW 6 G 8 82°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.0)74°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 46 mi52 min SSW 7 G 8.9 82°F 85°F1019.9 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC21 mi79 minWSW 69.00 miFair80°F78°F94%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W66W7SW6SW8SW8SW9SW12
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1 day agoSW5W6SW65SW6SW66SW8SW10SW9SW7SW8SW7SW9SW9SW7SW7SW7SW8W6W6W7W5W5
2 days agoSW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2)
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:14 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.110.80.70.50.30.20.20.40.60.91.11.11.110.80.60.50.30.30.30.50.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina (2)
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Hatteras Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:58 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:22 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.81.51.10.70.50.40.60.91.41.82.12.22.11.81.51.10.80.60.60.81.21.51.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.