Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bridgeton, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 4 AM Wednesday... An upper low over eastern KY/TN will transition into a shortwave today, as it weakens. The trough axis associated with the shortwave will swing through the Carolinas during peak heating today. Shear associated with the approaching trough axis will sustain some organized convection across the region this afternoon. SPC has included the area in another Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5). A few HRRR members show convective initiation along the sea breeze during the early afternoon, but the bulk of activity should develop just west of the area and track eastward through the afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

A surface trough following the upper trough could prolong showers overnight, despite weak subsidence aloft. At this point, the severe threat should have ended, but I have held PoPs around 30%, especially near the coast where warmer waters will interact with surface lift and remnant convection. Lows in the mid 60s, around 70 for the OBX.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 4 AM Wednesday... Coverage of storms on Thursday afternoon should be less than previous days. Westerly flow and an approaching surface trough will interact with the Piedmont trough and a pinned sea breeze to produce isolated to widely scattered storms. Weak subsidence aloft creates some question of confidence in this regime producing precip. Given that surface based instability is well into summer mode, the slightly wetter NBM should suffice for PoPs.

As mentioned in the long term discussion last night, ridging will continue on Friday with very warm temperatures arriving with a punch. Expect much of the area to battle with the lower 90s and summer-like humidity. The ridge continues to show signs of holding drier weather for Friday with PoPs retreating northward away from the ridge's periphery.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 4 AM Wednesday... Hot again on Saturday as we likely see some of the warmest temperatures of the year. Downslope flow will push highs into the lower or mid 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s. Heat indices should easily eclipse 100 degrees. Westerly flow intersecting the sea breeze could produce isolated storms during the afternoon with a slight uptick in rain chances during the evening as a cold front approaches the area.

Temperatures fall a few degrees following the cold front on Sunday with highs only around 90. Laughable relief from the heat yields very little in the way of forecast changes for Sunday. A few isolated afternoon storms will be possible. Another cold front approaches late Sunday into Monday with drier weather likely through Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 00Z Thursday/...
As of 700 AM Wednesday... Lingering stratus and patchy fog will gradually dissipate this morning yielding VFR conditions by mid morning. VFR for most of the day prior to afternoon convection.

Thunderstorms are likely to develop west of the area this afternoon and push northeastward through the CWA OBX airports are unlikely to see activity until outflow driven showers or elevated convection this evening. Timing of the convection will vary this afternoon as there could be some early afternoon storms develop along a broken sea breeze, best chance at OAJ and EWN. ISO and PGV likely to have a better chance with the mid and late afternoon convection. Any restrictions will be brief, possibly down to IFR in heavy rain and thunder. Large hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

LONG TERM /Wednesday evening through Sunday/...
As of 700 AM Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible overnight tonight due to evening showers and stratus or fog into Thursday morning. Shower chances decrease late this week and into the weekend, but isolated to scattered coverage will be possible each day (primarily during the afternoon).

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Hazardous marine conditions continue through much of this morning as seas in excess of 6 feet continue to be observed. SCA has been extended as seas are slow to decrease when compared to model forecasts. Seas should improve this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms approach the waters late this afternoon and increase in coverage offshore tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday... Pleasant boating conditions for the end of the work week. Saturday afternoon winds pick up again out of the southwest, but are short lived as Sunday lighter winds return.

EQUIPMENT
Due to a system upgrade, NOAA Weather Radio from the following transmitters will be off the air starting 730 AM Monday May 12th through Wednesday May 14th.

New Bern, NC, KEC84 at 162.400 MHz.
Cape Hatteras, NC, KIG-77 at 162.475 MHz.
Marnie, NC, WWH-26 at 162.425 MHz.
Warsaw, NC, KXI-5 at 162.425 MHz.

Visit www.weather.gov/mhx for the latest forecast information during the temporary outage. Our internet will NOT be impacted by the upgrade.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154.