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FXUS65 KABQ 040522 AAB AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1122 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Seasonable early Fall weather will prevail the next several days with near to slightly below normal temperatures and light winds.
The first freeze of the season is possible tonight in the upper Rio Grande Valley. A backdoor cold front will drop temps a few more degrees across the east on Friday and may generate a few showers and storms in the high terrain of southern New Mexico.
Isolated showers and storms are possible in southern and western areas through the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Fair weather remains over the Land of Enchantment as a large troughing pattern is present over the western CONUS. Dry southwest flow over NM is mixing out much of the low-level moisture that was present this morning. This is evident by dewpoints falling into the 20s at the ABQ Sunport. With much drier air settling in, and mostly clear skies forecast tonight, lows will fall to near or below freezing across many western and northern valley locations. Lows will be in the 40s for areas of the Rio Grande Valley from Espanola southward through Albuquerque to Socorro, and across the eastern plains. The Freeze Watch for the Upper Rio Grande Valley including Taos will be upgraded to a Freeze Warning for tonight, despite this area being the one exception to the clear skies rule with high cirrus expected to move over tonight.

Wednesday sees the leading edge of a backdoor cold front slide into northeastern NM which will drop high temperatures into the 60s from Raton to Clayton to Las Vegas. This front advances to the central highlands or the east slopes of the central mountain chain Wednesday night. There is a low chance for patchy fog to develop Wednesday night over portions of east-central NM.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A digging trough over the northern Plains will drive a cold front down the High Plains on Friday. Current guidance shows this front entering the northeast corner of the state by noon and reaching the central mountain chain by sunset. The increased moisture could bring some low clouds in its wake, but precipitation appears unlikely.
Breezy east winds could blow through the gaps of the central mountains, but winds should remain well-below wind advisory criteria.

High temps Friday and Saturday could be as much as 15 degrees below average across the east with near normal temperatures in the west.
Ridging will build in over The Great Basin this weekend, allowing light winds to continue and temperatures to gradually warm. Just enough moisture may sneak up from the south for isolated showers and storms over the high terrain of southern NM, but dry weather will continue to prevail. Ensemble guidance is in agreement that the ridge will break down early next week as another trough descends from the Gulf of Alaska. It's still unclear if it will impact New Mexico or not, but it will be a feature to watch moving forward.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Low level moisture should shift northward up the Pecos River Valley overnight, which may result in a few hours of MVFR cigs at KROW early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. A Pacific and back door cold front is expected to shift through the area today, and a few breezes can be expected behind the backdoor segment. Between mid afternoon and early evening, a thunderstorm or two may develop along the front southeast of a line from KCVS to KROW. Storms would have the potential to become severe prior to moving into Texas with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threats.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

No fire weather concerns through this week and weekend. Dry and breezy today. A backdoor cold front will cool temperatures across eastern NM Wednesday with a reinforcing backdoor cold front forecast Friday. This will also keep recoveries good to excellent across eastern NM, with drier and poorer recoveries west of the Rio Grande River.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 39 71 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 68 29 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 37 66 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 32 69 31 75 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 34 68 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 32 71 32 75 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 36 69 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 42 71 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 39 69 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 36 76 37 80 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 81 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 30 63 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 44 66 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 42 68 41 71 / 0 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 65 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 32 60 28 66 / 0 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 29 59 22 65 / 0 5 0 0 Taos............................ 32 66 32 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 38 63 35 68 / 0 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 43 74 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 46 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 70 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 49 74 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 47 75 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 76 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 75 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 42 77 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 45 77 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 42 76 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 46 76 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 76 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 47 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 47 76 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 47 79 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 67 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 44 70 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 39 71 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 34 73 33 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 40 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 40 72 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 41 73 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 50 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 71 42 72 / 0 5 0 5 Capulin......................... 41 62 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 40 66 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 41 68 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 40 67 38 70 / 0 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 49 66 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 45 68 42 70 / 0 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 47 74 47 75 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 45 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 47 71 46 75 / 0 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 78 50 76 / 5 10 5 0 Portales........................ 55 81 52 78 / 5 10 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 49 77 49 76 / 0 5 5 0 Roswell......................... 59 87 57 83 / 5 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 50 81 48 78 / 0 5 0 0 Elk............................. 48 80 45 75 / 0 5 0 5

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for NMZ216.

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