Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Albuquerque, NM
July 2, 2024 11:17 PM MDT (05:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 1:46 AM Moonset 4:43 PM |
Area Discussion for - Albuquerque, NM
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FXUS65 KABQ 022340 AAA AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 540 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A warming and drying trend is in play through Independence Day, which will be the hottest and least active day of the next seven.
Thunderstorms are still anticipated through Wednesday, with burn scar flooding possible, but will be more limited in coverage. A backdoor front will recharge moisture from the central mountain chain eastward late Thursday into Friday, setting the stage for an uptick in storm coverage going into the weekend with a renewed threat for burn scar flooding. Western NM will remain mostly dry and relatively hot through the weekend under the influence of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
An anomalously high PWAT atmosphere continues across much of the area, but a drying trend is underway as the westerlies penetrate further south across the state. The KABQ upper air sounding showed a PWAT of 1.13" this morning, which is still above normal but below our daily record value. Plenty of moisture exists for a robust round of storms this afternoon/evening, which is already underway with a recent nickel size hail report coming from Los Alamos. A severe storm or two are possible due to the increased shear associated with the westerlies across northern NM, but the best shot at seeing severe storms this afternoon/evening will be across far northeast NM where a weak boundary will provide some added forcing. Otherwise, the main thunderstorm related threat this afternoon/evening will be locally heavy rainfall and the potential for burn scar flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through this evening for the South Central Mountains, mainly given the sensitive situation in/near the Sacramento Complex where the combination of higher PWATs and slower storm motion reside. A similar day Wednesday, but with a drier airmass penetrating further west into northern and western NM leading to a downtick in coverage there. The combination of slow storm motion and higher PWATs will linger near the Sacramento Complex Wednesday, so another Flash Flood Watch is likely. A weak backdoor front will provide some surface convergence and focus for thunderstorm initiation Wednesday afternoon across the east central plains between Tucumcari and Clovis, where the right combination of instability and shear will be present at least a limited threat for severe storms. Storms on Wednesday are modeled to follow a more normal diurnal downtrend compared to what we've been seeing the past many days in part due to lower PWATs and greater reliance on daytime heating.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
An upper high over the eastern Pacific will move inland across CA and into the Great Basin/Desert SW while expanding and strengthening from Thursday through the weekend. Dry northwest flow aloft associated with an expanding ridge axis from the west will overtake the area Thursday, leading to a dramatic downtrend in PWATs, a near void of convection and what will likely be the hottest day of the forecast cycle for most locales. Isolated storms are possible along our southern border Thursday afternoon where sufficient moisture will linger, with low chances for impacts to the Sacramento Complex. A backdoor front will rush in late Thursday into Thursday night and recharge moisture across eastern and central NM. The front will create a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday night. With renewed moisture, expect an uptick in thunderstorm coverage from the central mountain chain eastward from late Friday through the weekend with the potential for burn scar flooding. Given low level south or southeast flow with northwest flow aloft, sufficient shear will exist across eastern NM from Friday through the weekend for a threat for severe thunderstorms. Another, stronger backdoor front will arrive Sunday night and bring moisture west to the Continental Divide by Monday, setting the stage for an active early week period with plenty of moisture and northerly flow aloft. This setup would be favorable for lighting-up the northern mountains and central mountain chain, with storms moving south or southeast into valleys and adjacent highlands during the late afternoon and evening hours.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the southeastern half of the forecast area, bringing localized MVFR conditions in the form of cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall.
Mentions of VCTS and potential impacts either from outflow boundaries or locally heavy rainfall through 02Z remain at all TAF terminals except KSAF and KGUP. Although KGUP is expected to see an outflow boundary bring a southerly wind shift this evening.
Also ended mention of the current TS over KTCC this hour, which is expected to clear to the east by 00Z. Convection steadily tapers off overnight with steadily clearing skies through the morning.
More drier westerly to northwesterly flow penetrates further toward the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday. This will shift the chances for afternoon convection more toward the southern and eastern quarters of the state.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days with rounds of wetting storms and good to excellent humidity recovery most areas. A gradual downtrend in coverage of wetting storms is forecast through Thursday with a drying and warming trend in play. A backdoor front will recharge moisture from the central mountain chain eastward late Thursday into Friday, setting the stage for an uptick in wetting storms going through the weekend. Another, stronger backdoor front will race southwest across the area Sunday night, brining increased moisture to at least the Continental Divide and setting the stage for an uptick in wetting storms further west across central NM early next week. Burn scar flooding is possible most days, but will be very low on Independence Day due to drying of the atmosphere.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 61 93 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 51 87 46 88 / 5 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 56 87 54 87 / 20 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 55 92 50 92 / 20 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 56 87 54 89 / 30 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 57 90 50 91 / 30 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 58 88 55 90 / 40 10 10 5 Magdalena....................... 61 86 61 90 / 50 30 10 0 Datil........................... 57 85 57 88 / 40 20 5 5 Reserve......................... 57 92 53 94 / 40 30 10 10 Glenwood........................ 67 95 66 100 / 50 40 20 20 Chama........................... 50 81 46 83 / 10 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 86 62 88 / 30 20 0 0 Pecos........................... 57 85 56 88 / 20 30 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 81 45 84 / 10 20 0 5 Red River....................... 48 73 45 76 / 20 20 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 49 78 38 80 / 20 30 5 5 Taos............................ 53 86 48 89 / 10 20 0 0 Mora............................ 53 82 50 86 / 20 30 5 5 Espanola........................ 60 92 58 94 / 20 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 59 87 60 89 / 30 20 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 90 58 92 / 20 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 91 66 94 / 40 20 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 93 66 96 / 40 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 94 65 98 / 40 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 94 65 96 / 30 10 0 0 Belen........................... 63 95 61 98 / 50 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 64 95 64 97 / 20 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 62 94 61 97 / 50 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 64 95 63 97 / 20 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 62 95 60 98 / 50 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 63 91 64 94 / 20 20 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 94 65 96 / 20 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 66 94 67 99 / 40 20 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 86 61 88 / 30 20 0 0 Tijeras......................... 61 88 62 92 / 40 20 5 0 Edgewood........................ 58 88 59 92 / 30 20 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 89 54 93 / 30 20 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 57 84 56 89 / 30 20 5 0 Mountainair..................... 59 86 60 91 / 50 30 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 60 86 59 91 / 50 30 10 5 Carrizozo....................... 65 88 67 94 / 50 40 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 59 80 61 86 / 50 60 20 30 Capulin......................... 58 83 55 81 / 20 50 10 5 Raton........................... 57 87 54 88 / 20 30 5 5 Springer........................ 62 89 54 91 / 20 30 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 56 84 54 87 / 20 30 10 5 Clayton......................... 66 86 62 87 / 40 30 20 0 Roy............................. 63 85 59 89 / 20 30 20 5 Conchas......................... 68 93 64 97 / 30 30 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 90 63 96 / 30 30 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 93 66 98 / 30 20 20 0 Clovis.......................... 71 93 68 97 / 30 40 30 10 Portales........................ 70 94 70 98 / 30 40 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 67 93 68 100 / 30 30 20 0 Roswell......................... 72 99 74 104 / 30 30 30 10 Picacho......................... 66 90 66 96 / 40 50 20 20 Elk............................. 62 87 63 92 / 50 70 30 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 540 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A warming and drying trend is in play through Independence Day, which will be the hottest and least active day of the next seven.
Thunderstorms are still anticipated through Wednesday, with burn scar flooding possible, but will be more limited in coverage. A backdoor front will recharge moisture from the central mountain chain eastward late Thursday into Friday, setting the stage for an uptick in storm coverage going into the weekend with a renewed threat for burn scar flooding. Western NM will remain mostly dry and relatively hot through the weekend under the influence of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
An anomalously high PWAT atmosphere continues across much of the area, but a drying trend is underway as the westerlies penetrate further south across the state. The KABQ upper air sounding showed a PWAT of 1.13" this morning, which is still above normal but below our daily record value. Plenty of moisture exists for a robust round of storms this afternoon/evening, which is already underway with a recent nickel size hail report coming from Los Alamos. A severe storm or two are possible due to the increased shear associated with the westerlies across northern NM, but the best shot at seeing severe storms this afternoon/evening will be across far northeast NM where a weak boundary will provide some added forcing. Otherwise, the main thunderstorm related threat this afternoon/evening will be locally heavy rainfall and the potential for burn scar flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through this evening for the South Central Mountains, mainly given the sensitive situation in/near the Sacramento Complex where the combination of higher PWATs and slower storm motion reside. A similar day Wednesday, but with a drier airmass penetrating further west into northern and western NM leading to a downtick in coverage there. The combination of slow storm motion and higher PWATs will linger near the Sacramento Complex Wednesday, so another Flash Flood Watch is likely. A weak backdoor front will provide some surface convergence and focus for thunderstorm initiation Wednesday afternoon across the east central plains between Tucumcari and Clovis, where the right combination of instability and shear will be present at least a limited threat for severe storms. Storms on Wednesday are modeled to follow a more normal diurnal downtrend compared to what we've been seeing the past many days in part due to lower PWATs and greater reliance on daytime heating.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
An upper high over the eastern Pacific will move inland across CA and into the Great Basin/Desert SW while expanding and strengthening from Thursday through the weekend. Dry northwest flow aloft associated with an expanding ridge axis from the west will overtake the area Thursday, leading to a dramatic downtrend in PWATs, a near void of convection and what will likely be the hottest day of the forecast cycle for most locales. Isolated storms are possible along our southern border Thursday afternoon where sufficient moisture will linger, with low chances for impacts to the Sacramento Complex. A backdoor front will rush in late Thursday into Thursday night and recharge moisture across eastern and central NM. The front will create a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday night. With renewed moisture, expect an uptick in thunderstorm coverage from the central mountain chain eastward from late Friday through the weekend with the potential for burn scar flooding. Given low level south or southeast flow with northwest flow aloft, sufficient shear will exist across eastern NM from Friday through the weekend for a threat for severe thunderstorms. Another, stronger backdoor front will arrive Sunday night and bring moisture west to the Continental Divide by Monday, setting the stage for an active early week period with plenty of moisture and northerly flow aloft. This setup would be favorable for lighting-up the northern mountains and central mountain chain, with storms moving south or southeast into valleys and adjacent highlands during the late afternoon and evening hours.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the southeastern half of the forecast area, bringing localized MVFR conditions in the form of cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall.
Mentions of VCTS and potential impacts either from outflow boundaries or locally heavy rainfall through 02Z remain at all TAF terminals except KSAF and KGUP. Although KGUP is expected to see an outflow boundary bring a southerly wind shift this evening.
Also ended mention of the current TS over KTCC this hour, which is expected to clear to the east by 00Z. Convection steadily tapers off overnight with steadily clearing skies through the morning.
More drier westerly to northwesterly flow penetrates further toward the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday. This will shift the chances for afternoon convection more toward the southern and eastern quarters of the state.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days with rounds of wetting storms and good to excellent humidity recovery most areas. A gradual downtrend in coverage of wetting storms is forecast through Thursday with a drying and warming trend in play. A backdoor front will recharge moisture from the central mountain chain eastward late Thursday into Friday, setting the stage for an uptick in wetting storms going through the weekend. Another, stronger backdoor front will race southwest across the area Sunday night, brining increased moisture to at least the Continental Divide and setting the stage for an uptick in wetting storms further west across central NM early next week. Burn scar flooding is possible most days, but will be very low on Independence Day due to drying of the atmosphere.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 61 93 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 51 87 46 88 / 5 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 56 87 54 87 / 20 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 55 92 50 92 / 20 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 56 87 54 89 / 30 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 57 90 50 91 / 30 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 58 88 55 90 / 40 10 10 5 Magdalena....................... 61 86 61 90 / 50 30 10 0 Datil........................... 57 85 57 88 / 40 20 5 5 Reserve......................... 57 92 53 94 / 40 30 10 10 Glenwood........................ 67 95 66 100 / 50 40 20 20 Chama........................... 50 81 46 83 / 10 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 86 62 88 / 30 20 0 0 Pecos........................... 57 85 56 88 / 20 30 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 81 45 84 / 10 20 0 5 Red River....................... 48 73 45 76 / 20 20 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 49 78 38 80 / 20 30 5 5 Taos............................ 53 86 48 89 / 10 20 0 0 Mora............................ 53 82 50 86 / 20 30 5 5 Espanola........................ 60 92 58 94 / 20 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 59 87 60 89 / 30 20 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 90 58 92 / 20 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 91 66 94 / 40 20 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 93 66 96 / 40 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 94 65 98 / 40 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 94 65 96 / 30 10 0 0 Belen........................... 63 95 61 98 / 50 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 64 95 64 97 / 20 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 62 94 61 97 / 50 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 64 95 63 97 / 20 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 62 95 60 98 / 50 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 63 91 64 94 / 20 20 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 94 65 96 / 20 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 66 94 67 99 / 40 20 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 86 61 88 / 30 20 0 0 Tijeras......................... 61 88 62 92 / 40 20 5 0 Edgewood........................ 58 88 59 92 / 30 20 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 89 54 93 / 30 20 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 57 84 56 89 / 30 20 5 0 Mountainair..................... 59 86 60 91 / 50 30 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 60 86 59 91 / 50 30 10 5 Carrizozo....................... 65 88 67 94 / 50 40 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 59 80 61 86 / 50 60 20 30 Capulin......................... 58 83 55 81 / 20 50 10 5 Raton........................... 57 87 54 88 / 20 30 5 5 Springer........................ 62 89 54 91 / 20 30 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 56 84 54 87 / 20 30 10 5 Clayton......................... 66 86 62 87 / 40 30 20 0 Roy............................. 63 85 59 89 / 20 30 20 5 Conchas......................... 68 93 64 97 / 30 30 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 90 63 96 / 30 30 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 93 66 98 / 30 20 20 0 Clovis.......................... 71 93 68 97 / 30 40 30 10 Portales........................ 70 94 70 98 / 30 40 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 67 93 68 100 / 30 30 20 0 Roswell......................... 72 99 74 104 / 30 30 30 10 Picacho......................... 66 90 66 96 / 40 50 20 20 Elk............................. 62 87 63 92 / 50 70 30 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KABQ
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KABQ
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KABQ
Wind History graph: ABQ
(wind in knots)
Albuquerque, NM,
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