Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Albuquerque, NM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM MDT Fri May 23 2025

Surface high pressure centered over the Great Plains is bringing in easterly winds and higher moisture into eastern NM this morning.
Undercutting drier westerly flow aloft associated with a modest ridge axis over the state, this low-level moisture is resulting in spreading coverage of broken to overcast clouds between 1000 to 3000 feet AGL over northeastern NM. The higher dewpoints associated with this higher moisture has advanced thru the gap b/w the Sangre de Cristo's and Sandia's to Santa Fe and into parts of the ABQ metro area. Drier westerly to southwesterly winds aloft will mix out this low-level moisture this afternoon, pushing it back east into TX.
Numerical model guidance continues to remain consistent sharpening the dryline over the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin this afternoon, keeping precipitation chances east of the forecast area. This will yield a second day of above normal high temperatures and ABQ and Roswell flirting with their 1st 90 and 100 degree days respectively as they both fell just 1 degree short Thursday.

Saturday sees dry southwesterly winds amplify a tad and remain persistent over northern and central NM. The exception will be far northeastern NM where the leading edge of a frontal boundary will be backing into. Much higher dewpoints in the 40s to 50s will be amassing behind the front and model guidance is showing ample SBCAPE any updraft can tap into. The caveat here however, is model soundings on both the NAM and GFS at Clayton show a strong mid-level capping inversion near H7 with lots of dry air that would be entrained in any hopeful updraft. Have left PoPs at a generic 10 percent mention across Union County as a result. The main story for Saturday will be another day of minor to moderate impacts from heat to vulnerable populations at lower elevations across northern and central NM where highs are forecast to reach into the 90s to low 100s in Roswell.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM MDT Fri May 23 2025

An upper level trough over the Great Basin will begin to lower pressure heights over New Mexico and cool temperatures for Sunday.
This system will push in a dry slot of air over western and Central New Mexico, dropping relative humidity values into the single digits and leading to some breezy conditions. However, some deeper moisture will seep into northeastern New Mexico behind a backdoor front, which may lead to some shower and storm activity near the Colorado border on Saturday night into the early morning hours on Sunday. The frontal boundary looks to stall over northeastern New Mexico during the day, but then looks to push eastward into central New Mexico during the evening and overnight hours after southwesterly flow has weakened. With some greater moisture to work with, coverage for showers and storms look to increase throughout the night as the front moves through the eastern plains.
Northeastern areas could see up to a quarter inch of wetting precipitation, as well as some gusty outflow winds. The outflow winds from storms out east may work their way through the gaps of the central mountains and into the ABQ metro during the early morning on Monday.

The upper level trough axis swings through the intermountain west on Monday, providing some deeper mid level moisture and forcing for central areas. As a result, another round of thunderstorms and showers could develop for areas along and east of the central mountain chain. But the highest confidence locations will be for northeastern areas as storms develop over the Sangre De Cristo mountains and move east into the high plains. Another moist backdoor front looks to push through once again on Monday night, which may keep some shower activity going later for far eastern New Mexico.
For the rest of the week, surface southeasterly flow looks to keep some deeper moisture from the Gulf over eastern areas, allowing for afternoon convection to develop along and east of the central mountain chain each afternoon. With ample instability available in far eastern New Mexico, long range severe probability guidance is hinting that some of these storms could become severe, with wind and hail being the main threats.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Fri May 23 2025

Southwest winds will be gusty this afternoon with the strongest gusts between Clines Corners and Capulin, including KLVS and Roy.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours, except for a 20 percent chance of low clouds moving into Clayton with a northeasterly wind shift around 12-15Z Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 253 AM MDT Fri May 23 2025

Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will develop across western and central NM. The central and northeast highlands will favor the area of short-lived critical fire weather where winds are forecast to be the strongest this afternoon. Widespread low humidity falling below 10 percent will be present, with wind speeds being the limiting factor today. This continues Friday and Saturday across much of northern and central NM, except near the TX/OK/CO borders east of a sharpening dryline that will waffle east and west each day and night. The dryline and cold front will shift west closer to the central mountain chain by Sunday bringing higher humidity and little to no fire weather concerns through the rest of next week. Western areas remain dry with wind being the limiting factor, as the Rio Grande Valley will see humidity remain in flux each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 86 48 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 81 37 81 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 82 45 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 84 38 81 39 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 80 43 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 85 40 84 41 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 84 45 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 88 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 83 46 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 89 42 86 42 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 92 47 89 47 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 75 39 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 81 52 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 81 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 68 40 68 42 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 73 35 74 37 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 81 40 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 79 45 79 45 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 89 48 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 82 52 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 50 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 53 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 95 50 91 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 93 53 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 94 49 91 51 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 94 54 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 94 51 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 88 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 92 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 98 55 94 55 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 52 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 86 53 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 86 48 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 43 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 81 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 86 50 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 86 51 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 91 58 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 84 56 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 81 45 79 47 / 0 0 10 20 Raton........................... 85 44 86 48 / 0 0 5 10 Springer........................ 86 44 86 49 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 82 47 83 48 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 89 51 80 52 / 5 0 10 20 Roy............................. 86 48 85 50 / 0 0 5 10 Conchas......................... 94 50 92 55 / 5 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 91 54 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 93 54 90 57 / 10 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 94 60 94 60 / 10 0 0 10 Portales........................ 95 59 96 59 / 10 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 94 54 95 56 / 5 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 101 63 101 62 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 96 58 95 56 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 94 57 93 54 / 0 0 0 0

ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.