Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Buxton, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Scattered strong thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds today

- Moderate heat risk today, with "feels like" temperatures of 100- 105

Early this morning, there appears to be several MCVs traversing central and eastern NC. These all should eventually move out of the area, but until they do, there appears to be sufficient moisture and instability to support scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds through around sunrise.

After sunrise, a stalled front draped west to east across the HWY 264 corridor should begin to lift north as the southwesterly low- level flow begins to gradually increase. This will put ENC well into the warm sector. The main difference today compared to the past few days is that forcing looks to be much lower thanks to a lack of shortwaves moving through. Because of this, it looks like the coverage of thunderstorms will be lower, and mainly tied to the diurnal sea/bay/river breezes. Strong heating of a very moist boundary layer should allow moderate to strong instability to build across the area, with MLCAPE of 2000-3000j/kg. Deep layer shear is forecast to be weak (20-25kt), setting up a pulse severe environment. Weaker forcing may make it harder for sustained deep convection, but the tallest cores today will be capable of strong wind gusts (40-60 mph) and small hail. Of note, if any core can be sustained for a longer period of time where convergence is maximized, there is the potential for hail of penny to quarter size. Overall, though, the severe weather risk looks LOW. Where thunderstorms develop, the residually moist airmass will continue to favor intense rainfall rates. While widespread heavy rain is not anticipated, an instance or two of flash flooding cannot be ruled out, with this risk primarily focused over areas that have seen the most rain over the past couple of days.

The lowered coverage of thunderstorms should allow temperatures to be hotter today compared to the past couple of days. This means low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. For inland areas, heat indices ("feels like" temps) are forecast to reach the 100-105 range. It looks like we will stay just shy of Heat Advisory criteria, but notable nonetheless.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Increasing inhibition this evening and tonight, plus an overall lack of forcing, should lead to a diurnal decrease in convective activity, with the risk shifting offshore. Meanwhile, a modest southwesterly LLJ and weak WAA should keep temperatures very warm tonight (mid to upper 70s).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330AM Tue...

Key Messages:

- Impactful heat on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Weakening cold front will bring a threat for a few isolated strong thunderstorms Thursday evening

- Potential for dangerous heat indices late this weekend and into early next week

Wed into early next week...Upper ridging will be anchored off the Southeast Coast on Wednesday with a neutrally tilted upper trough in the Plains progressing E'wards. Ridging should push further away from the coast on Thurs and Fri as the aforementioned upper trough continues E'wards and pushes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. At the same time, mid level shortwave will push E'wards from the Plains and eventually track across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Thurs night into Fri riding along this upper troughing. Troughing quickly pushes off the coast on Sat and is replaced by a "heat dome" as strong upper and surface ridging builds over the eastern half of the CONUS with this ridging not moving much through early next week once it becomes established.

At the surface, low pressure in the Midwest will track NE'wards into eastern Canada on Thurs/Fri while its associated cold front tracks east eventually pushing into the Carolinas Thurs evening, finally pushing offshore Fri morning. Prior to the frontal passage, expect a chance for some isolated seabreeze thunderstorms just inland from the coast on Wed. Hot and humid conditions are also forecast across ENC on Wed and Thurs with temps each day reaching the low to mid 90s, with mid to upper 80s noted along the OBX and immediate coast. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices across ENC will likely reach 100-110 each day bringing the first chance at seeing heat advisory criteria. Regardless of heat advisory issuance, given the extended period of hot and humid temps Wed/Thurs and lack of respite from the heat overnight Wed, there is a significant risk for heat related illnesses especially for those without proper cooling or adequate hydration.

In addition to this, as the previously mentioned cold front approaches from the west on Thurs, a surface trough will develop along the Coastal Plain and allow for for organized thunderstorm activity to develop along out ahead of this front with precip chances quickly increasing from west to east Thurs evening. With hot and humid conditions in place, instability will build with SBCAPE values reaching 2000-3000 J/kg by Thurs afternoon. In addition to this, deep layer shear around 25-35 kts should promote a threat for some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary concern within the strongest storms.

Afterwards front pushes offshore ending the shower and thunderstorm threat from west to east Fri morning. Upper and surface ridging builds over the Eastern CONUS and while Fri/Sat may be the coolest days of the week, dangerous heat returns to ENC Sun into Mon next week with the first significant heat wave potentially impacting the Eastern Seaboard during this timeframe. EFI probs do show anomalous heat and wouldn't be surprised if we saw continued above Avg temps Sun/Mon. Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances will be possible Fri/Sat and Sun.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- TSRA risk continues overnight, becoming more scattered on Tuesday

Scattered to numerous TSRA will continue to impact portions of ENC overnight, then become more isolated by Tuesday morning.
Periods of sub VFR CIGs appear likely overnight as well. During the day Tuesday, any low CIGs should scatter out, leading to prevailing VFR conditions. During the afternoon and early evening, isolated to scattered seabreeze TSRA are expected, and the TAFs reflect this expectation. Overall, the coverage is expected to be lower today compared to the past couple of days.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330AM Tue...Primarily VFR conditions expected across the terminals starting on Wed as a more summer like pattern returns to the area. Will see a chance for some seabreeze thunderstorms on Wed which could result in a brief period of sub-VFR condition mainly across the SW'rn zones (EWN/OAJ terminals). A weak cold front will push through the area on Thursday evening, once again bringing a second brief threat for sub-VFR conditions and thunderstorm chances to ENC Thursday evening and overnight.
Afterwards, ridging builds into the aera keeping any sub-VFR threat relegated to seabreeze thunderstorm activity each afternoon from Fri into the weekend.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Lower thunderstorm risk today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms ongoing early this morning are associated with various upper level waves moving through the area. The thunderstorm activity this morning will be capable of gusty winds of 30-40kt and waterspouts. Once this activity shifts further out to sea, there should be a relative minimum in thunderstorm activity compared to the past couple of days. The main risk today will be along the inland-advancing seabreeze, primarily impacting the inland rivers and sounds. The thunderstorm risk then shifts back offshore to the coastal waters by tonight.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, a modest southwesterly background flow of 10-20kt is expected through tonight. A few gusts to 25kt will be possible in the areas that are typically impacted by the strongest thermal gradient (Pamlico Sound/central coastal waters).

LONG TERM /Wednesday though Saturday/...
As of 330AM Tue... Surface ridge settles in offshore on Wed with a thermal trough setting up Wed afternoon. This should allow for ongoing 15-20 kt SW'rly breezes to increase to 20-25 kts across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet Wed afternoon and evening before winds ease again Thurs morning back down to 15-20 kts across all waters. Then as we get into Thursday with the approach of a cold front the gradient pinches allowing for winds to once again increase to 15-25 kts across most waters this time. In addition to this, showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with the frontal passage Thurs night into Fri morning. This will bring multiple chances at SCA conditions both Wed and Thurs. Once front pushes offshore on Fri, winds ease for the weekend down to 5-10 kts becoming W-NW'rly behind the front Fri then S'rly by Sat evening as ridging builds into the area. Seas remain around 3-5 ft through the period.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.