Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayboro, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:28PM Sunday March 29, 2020 2:12 PM EDT (18:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:01AMMoonset 11:26PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 101 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves light chop.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves choppy. Showers.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayboro, NC
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location: 35.15, -76.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 291700 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach the area today with limited moisture and push through tonight. An area of low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night and strengthen off the Mid- Atlantic coast Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late next week.

NEAR TERM /This afternoon/. As of 1 PM Sun . No changes with afternoon update. Sea fog has all but dissipated, and only sct/bkn cirrus streaming through E NC rest of today.

Prev discussion . As of 1010 AM Sun . No big changes with am update. Have lowered vsbys slightly near coast based on OBS, but sea fog will begin to scour/mix out soon due to onset of stronger diurnal mixing. Temps still on track to reach record highs, low 90s interior to near 80 coast.

Prev discussion . As of 710 AM Sun . Only minor tweaks to the public forecast this period. Past several HRRR runs have consistently fired a few isolated storms near or along the NC/VA line. Although forecast mention remains dry for now, did expand "highest" PoPs north of Highway 264 across the Albemarle Sound and northern OBX.

Prev disc . Anomalously strong upper level ridge continues to sit over the southeastern CONUS although it has slowly been shifting east as barotropic low over the Upper Midwest pushes towards the Great Lakes. When this ridge shifts offshore (and associated height falls to the west begin) is a key question in today's forecast. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure was analyzed ridging into Florida with a front located near the NC/VA line.

It will feel more like a summer day across eastern NC today with low-level thicknesses climbing to 1415-1425 m and 850 mb temperatures possibly reaching +20 C (shattering the MHX record of +13.8 C per sounding climatology). Given how warm yesterday turned out and with the higher thicknesses, nudged high temperatures up another degree or so today resulting in fairly widespread low 90s inland. Low 80s are expected for northern OBX with 70s along the remaining beaches.

One interesting element of today's forecast involves the attendant cold front from the Midwest low as it begins to cross NC today. A minority of hi-res guidance (NMM, HREF, and the HRRR ensembles) depict the upper ridge shifting east fast enough to induce height falls over central NC and the coastal plain, allowing some instability to be realized and a few thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front. If such a threat were to develop, MLCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 45-50 kt suggest a few stronger storms are possible. Opted to keep forecast dry for now given majority of guidance favors another dry day, but situation will have to be monitored in future updates.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/. As of 345 AM . Front will cross the region tonight. If precipitation threat is realized it should come to an end well before midnight. Drier airmass will advect in behind the front with high pressure attempting to build in from the southwest. CAA expected behind the front but with thicknesses slow to fall, it will be another mild night with low to mid 60s across the entire region. Partly to mostly cloudy skies expected behind the front.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As 3 AM Sun . High pressure will briefly build across the area Monday. Low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night, pushing offshore Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late week. Another front will approach the area late next weekend. Above normal temps will continue Monday, then returning to near climo Tue through the period.

Monday . High pressure will briefly build across the area. Slightly cooler conditions expected Monday behind the front. As a result of little to no CAA behind the front temperatures should once again climb into the upper 70s and low 80s inland, and mid to upper 70s along the coast.

Tuesday through Wednesday . Miller type B cyclogenesis is expected on Tue over South Carolina with the parent low tracking across the Ohio Valley. This is response to a potent mid level trough moving across the Midwest US. The developing low is forecast to track northeast along the NC coast Tue night into Wed then continue to deepen Wed afternoon off of the Mid- Atlantic coast. Widespread rainfall is expected late Tue afternoon into Wednesday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Tuesday night with PWATs approaching 1.25". Increased pops to categorical, with WPC showing 0.75-1.25" qpf amts. Bulk of precip should be ending by late Wed morning, with lighter wrap around moisture from the offshore low possible across the area through Wed night. Strong winds will develop late Tue night, peaking Wednesday, strongest along the coast. Minor water level rises will be possible, especially for oceanside locations north of Cape Hatteras, along with rough surf. Low level thickness values, increasing clouds and NE/E flow support highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s Tue, and a few degrees cooler Wed, 55-60 deg.

Thursday through Sunday . High pressure will build in from the west late week into the first part of the weekend, resulting in dry weather and moderating temps near climo. The next frontal system will approach the area late next weekend. Highs generally 65-70 deg inland and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, and overnight lows 45-55 deg.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through 12Z Monday/ . As of 1 PM Sun . VFR conditions prevail across all sites with high confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Abundant high clouds will continue to stream overhead courtesy of mature stacked cyclone over the central CONUS, but some lower clouds at 5-7 kft are possible around and after sunset as weak front crosses the area overnight. Main concern is respectable southwest winds with tightening pressure gradient. Afternoon gusts of 20-25 kt are likely especially for the coastal plain.

A highly conditional threat of an isolated thunderstorm remains mainly for PGV and areas north, depending on whether upper ridge shifts far enough east for some instability to be realized. Latest model consensus continues to suggest probability of this is too low to mention in forecast this cycle.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 3 AM Sun . Pred VFR conditions expected through Tuesday morning. Developing low pressure will approach the area from the southwest late Tue producing widespread rain and occasional sub-VFR conditions. Best chance for widespread sub-VFR conditions will be Tue evening into Wed, with periods of IFR likely Tue night. Conditions should be improving through the day Wed, though gusty northerly winds expected. VFR likely to return Wed night as drier air moves into the area.

MARINE. Short Term /Today and Tonight/ . As of 715 AM Sun . Diamond Shoals has been bouncing between 5-6 feet much of the morning with seas 4-5 feet elsewhere. Winds have not been as high as forecast and lowered today's winds quite a few knots based on observations and guidance from the HRRR. Even with this adjustment SCA conditions are still probable late this afternoon and evening, but event appears much more marginal.

Prev disc . Buoys and local obs showing seas 3 feet north of Oregon Inlet with 4-6 feet elsewhere. Southwest winds of 15-20 kts were reported mainly north of Ocracoke, but the normally windy Diamond Shoals is lower thanks to a cool eddy (per water temps in the upper 50s) significantly inhibiting robust mixing. Strong southwesterly flow is expected to continue today as cold front begins to approach the waters late. Seas expected to reach a peak of 6-7 feet overnight. Winds weaken and veer west- northwesterly as the front nears and crosses the waters by the end of the period with seas quickly diminishing below 6 feet by sunrise. Shortened the SCA over the far northern waters per weaker than expected winds, but otherwise existing SCAs remain.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 3 AM Sun . As high pressure builds over the waters Mon, NW winds 10-20 kt will become W 10-15 kt. Seas 3-5 ft early Mon subsiding to 2-4 ft. Confidence is low but could see a brief period of SCA conditions develop Monday night into Tue morning, as sfc low strengthens to the north and gradient tightens between low and approaching system. N/NE winds will increase to 15-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. Tue ahead of developing low pressure to the southwest, NE winds 15-20 kt will veer to the E 10-15 kt. An area of low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night and strengthen off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday. Strong N/NE winds 20-30 kt will develop late Tue night, peaking Wed and gradually subsiding Wed night. Confidence is increasing that waters will see a period of gale force winds Wed. Seas will build Tue night, peaking at 6-13 ft Wed. Winds and seas will be gradually subsiding Thursday as high pressure builds over the area. NW winds 10-20 kt subsiding to 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 4-6 ft by afternoon.

CLIMATE. Record High temperatures possible today 3/29

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 88/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/2012 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1910 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1985 (KNCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . TL/MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . CQD AVIATION . CQD/TL MARINE . CQD/MS CLIMATE . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi73 min SW 8.9 G 15 67°F 64°F1016.7 hPa (-1.2)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi73 min SW 12 G 17 69°F 1016.5 hPa (-1.3)69°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC15 mi19 minSW 12 G 2110.00 miFair86°F64°F48%1014.4 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC19 mi77 minSSW 1210.00 miFair80°F66°F64%1016.3 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC21 mi19 minS 13 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F66°F62%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWN

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1 day agoW6NW6W4CalmS5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NE4CalmCalmS3S3NE3S4S4SW10SW9W8SW8SW10
2 days agoCalm34S8S8S6S6S3SW4S4S4S5SW9CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W8W9W15
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:24 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:47 PM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:02 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.11.91.61.10.70.40.30.40.71.11.51.81.91.71.410.70.40.30.40.71.21.7

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:23 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:46 PM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.81.81.71.410.70.40.30.30.50.91.31.51.61.51.30.90.60.40.20.30.50.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.