Saturday, October24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayboro, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:23PM Saturday October 24, 2020 7:07 PM EDT (23:07 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 331 Pm Edt Sat Oct 24 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat late. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves light chop.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayboro, NC
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location: 35.15, -76.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 242001 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 401 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front will push offshore by Sunday. High pressure will dominate the weather early next week before a complex frontal system could impact the area late in the week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 330 PM Sat . The latest analysis is showing high pressure dominating the region, while the cold front is extending from the NE states down through the TN Valley and into Alabama. The cold front will gradually move eastward tonight and start to push through the area after midnight. Expect an increase of mid to high clouds this evening and lower after midnight. Some showers are possible for late tonight, but think the best timing will be towards morning. Also, there can be some patchy fog across the SW part of the CWA, but it will based on the timing of the cold front passage. Expect overnight lows in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/. As of 330 PM Sat . The cold front is forecasted to be either along the immediate coastal line or slightly off the coast by morning and become stalled through much of the day. While shallow high pressure wedges in from the north and allowing for a persistent low to mid level moisture advection to bring scattered isentropically forced showers through the day. At the same time, a shortwave will move through the area enhancing lift increasing the chances for showers. Models are showing instability, so there will be a few rumbles of thunder. Overall, expect showers to start along the frontal boundary in the morning, then spreading inland as isentropic and shortwave energy enhances lift. Also, expect a cool day with highs in the the upper 60s to low 70s inland and low to mid 70s along the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 PM Sat . A coastal low which could remain off the coast into Monday. Then, localized high pressure keeps settled weather conditions in place Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex low pressure/frontal system will lift from the Gulf Coast across the eastern US, bringing the potential for unsettled weather Thursday into next weekend.

Sunday night into Monday . The aforementioned shortwave will prompt the development of a wave/low off the coast Sunday night. There is significant variability amongst guidance as to the strength and track of this low, but prolonged shower chances are possible into Monday morning along the coast if the low remains nearby. Stronger low would also prompt breezy conditions near the coast. Generally opted for an ensemble mean for wind and POPs given uncertainty. Upper level subsidence brings drying conditions and clearing skies through the day Monday, with temps returning to several degrees above normal.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Significant model variability continues early next workweek, but generally favored the ECMWF/NAM solutions of localized high pressure keeping settled conditions in place. The GFS solution of the front sagging into the region and stalling solicits consideration, but have opted for a mainly dry forecast for the time being.

Thursday and Friday . Low pressure, which the National Hurricane Center currently expects to become tropical over the next 48 hrs, will lift from the Gulf Coast towards the eastern US later next week. The track of this low is highly uncertain, but the overall expectation is increased deep moisture transport across the Southeast and a more warm/humid/unsettled period. Rainfall timing, amount, intensity, and the severe weather potential are low track dependent, and will be refined in subsequent forecasts.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term /Through Tonight/ . As of 150 PM Sat . High confidence VFR conditions will dominate through the next 12 hours. High pressure will remain in place, but an increase of mid to high clouds will start to stream through the area as the next cold front approaches the area tonight. After midnight, clouds will lower as the weak cold front starts to push through, with ceiling hgts dropping into IFR levels. Some models are suggesting LIFR ceilings, but at this time indicated it as a SCT003 for most of the TAF sites. Expect IFR conditions to continue through tomorrow with light rain spreading across the area for much of the day under light NE winds.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 350 AM Fri . Sub-VFR conditions likely Sunday into Sunday night as moisture overrides shallow surface ridging. VFR conditions prevail thereafter.

MARINE. Short Term /through Saturday/ . As of 345 PM Sat . The latest buoy obs are showing S/SW 5-10 knots and seas 4 to 6 ft with the highest along the Diamond Shoals buoy. Winds will remain 5-10 knots tonight and gradually shift to the NE 5-15 knots north of Diamond Shoals as the cold front pushes through, while to the south of Diamond Shoals, winds will becoming SE to E at 5-10 knots. By Sunday afternoon, winds will become E 10-15 knots across all the coastal waters. Seas have diminished quickly late morning and was able to cancel SCA over the southern waters. SCA advisory remains in effect over the central and northern waters through Sunday with seas 4-6 ft, then becoming 3-5 feet by tomorrow evening.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 350 AM Thu . Moderate northeast winds develop Sunday as a cold front pushes offshore in the morning. Guidance indicates that a wave of low pressure could develop along this front Sunday night into Monday, potentially passing near the coast and bringing a period of breezy winds and elevated seas. However, the guidance consensus has this wave weaker and further offshore, so have kept only Moderate northeast winds in the forecast for Sunday night and Monday with the caveat that conditions are dependent on the realized low characteristics. High pressure dominates Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more favorable marine conditions with light to moderate winds and 3 to 4 ft seas.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . BM SHORT TERM . BM LONG TERM . CB AVIATION . BM/CB MARINE . BM/CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 30 mi50 min SSE 5.1 G 6 73°F 1015.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi128 min S 5.1 G 6 74°F 1014.5 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC15 mi74 minS 610.00 miFair76°F63°F64%1014.4 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC19 mi72 minSSE 610.00 miFair74°F62°F67%1014.9 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC21 mi74 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F60°F62%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWN

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalm4NW5CalmCalmS5SW5SW5S6S5
1 day agoE4N3NE7NE5NE3NE4E4E3NE4N3CalmCalmN3NE5N4N5N5N5N5N7NE3NE6E4Calm
2 days agoE3NE3E4NE5NE4CalmNE4CalmCalmNE3N3CalmE3CalmNE63E5NE7NE6SE5NE7SE5E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:52 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:09 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:23 PM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:10 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.21.61.921.81.61.20.90.60.50.50.81.31.72.12.32.221.71.30.90.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:51 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:31 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:22 PM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.60.91.31.61.71.61.41.10.80.50.40.40.611.41.71.91.91.81.51.10.80.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.