Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avilla Beach, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:44PM Thursday August 22, 2019 8:04 PM PDT (03:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:52PMMoonset 11:54AM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 136 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 10 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 6 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Sat night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds and S 3 to 4 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds and S 3 to 4 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds and S 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft and S 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 136 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1022 mb surface high was centered 800 nm W of point conception while a 1000 mb thermal low was centered over southern nevada. The high will retreat to the west while the low expands into northern california into the weekend. Abnormally strong southeast winds will affect most nearshore coastal waters tonight through Friday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avilla Beach, CA
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location: 35.17, -120.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 230005 aaa
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
505 pm pdt Thu aug 22 2019
updated aviation discussion

Synopsis 22 853 am.

Temperatures will remain slightly below normal at the beginning of
the period with the passage of a weak upper level trough. Coastal
low clouds and fog will spread into coastal valleys tonight,
retreating to the coastal areas only this weekend. Building high
pressure next week will bump temperatures higher, returning to
normal and slightly above normal for next week.

Short term (tdy-sun) 22 216 pm.

Southerly flow really starting to kick in this afternoon as models
have been advertising. Lax profiler winds are all from the
southeast or south, though surface winds are still from the west.

Gradients are still trending onshore and temperatures are down 4-8
degrees on average, though port san luis, which was 94 yesterday,
is only in the mid 60s this afternoon.

The forecast through the weekend remains largely in tact. The
marine layer is expected to deepen up to at least 2500' tonight
south of pt conception and at least 1500' up north. This will push
low clouds well into the coastal valleys later tonight and lower
high temps Friday by another 3-6 degrees on average, though
as much as 10-15 degrees across interior slo county. Low
confidence on the marine layer clearing pattern tomorrow given the
big southerly surge and continuing southeast flow just off the
surface. Theoretically this should help la and ventura counties
clear out while clouds struggle to clear across coastal slo sb
counties but confidence not high on this part of the forecast.

A weak eddy circulation is expected to continue into Saturday,
however building high pressure aloft along with weakening onshore
flow is expected to lower the marine layer depth and warm temps by
4-8 degrees, mostly across the valleys and other inland areas.

Marine layer clouds will likely linger at many beaches from malibu
west but otherwise skies will be sunny.

Slightly warmer again Sunday with better coastal clearing. Warmer
valley areas may be getting close to 100 again. May start seeing
some high clouds drifting over the area from the remnants of ivo
but models still not showing any lower level moisture as the
clockwise flow around the high over california steers the system
and it's moisture farther to the west so convective chances at
this point remain very low.

Long term (mon-thu) 22 213 pm.

While there will be subtle changes in gradients and the upper
level pattern next week the weather through the middle of next
week is not expected to change much. The GFS and ECMWF continue
to show the remnants of ivo riding up and over the ridge and
mostly into northern california Wed Thu so will have to keep an
eye on this but none of the ensembles are showing any precip so
dry and warm weather expected to continue with highs 2-4 degrees
above normal on average.

Aviation 23 0003z.

At 2330z, the marine layer was 1200 feet deep at klax. The top of
the inversion was around 2700 feet with a temp of 24c.

Moderate confidence overall in the 00z tafs, however there is hi
confidence that low clouds will develop and affect many airfields
tonight into fri. Low clouds and lifr ifr MVFR conditions are
expected at the coast and vly airfields starting as early as
0130z at ksmx to as late as 12z at kprb. The low clouds should
clear toVFR by late Fri morning to early Fri afternoon except
linger thru Fri afternoon at koxr. The timing of the onset and
dissipation of the low clouds many be off + - an hour or two.

For kwjf and kpmd, there is hi confidence in the 00z tafs with
vfr conditions expected through Fri afternoon.

Klax... Moderate confidence overall in the 00z taf. Low clouds and
ifr MVFR conditions are expected from about 04z this evening thru
about 20z fri. More low clouds with MVFR conditions should move
into the airfield around 03z Fri evening as well. Otherwise,VFR
conditions can be expected. The timing of the onset and
dissipation of the low clouds many be off + - an hour or two.

Kbur... Moderate confidence overall in the 00z taf. Low clouds and
ifr MVFR conditions are expected from about 08z this evening thru
about 18z fri. Otherwise,VFR conditions can be expected. The
timing of the onset and dissipation of the low clouds many be off
+ - an hour or two.

Marine 22 112 pm.

High confidence in small craft advisory (sca) winds through
tonight over the outer waters from the central coast to san
nicolas island. 50 percent chance of SCA winds for the nearshore
central coast waters. Moderate confidence for winds well below
sca Friday through at least the weekend.

Moderate confidence for abnormally strong southeast winds over
most coastal waters later tonight into early Friday afternoon.

While 10 to 15 kt will be most common, peak winds between 15 and
25 kt are likely between point conception and orange county at
times. There is a 50 percent chance of reaching SCA criteria.

An abnormally large south to southeast swell from tropical storm
ivo will impact the waters Sunday through Tuesday. There is a
potential for the swell to peak between 5 and 7 feet. A swell
from this direction would cause strong surges around and inside
the vulnerable harbors, especially avalon and san pedro long
beach. Large breaking waves near the coast are also likely, which
has a history of capsizing small drifting boats.

Beaches 22 112 pm.

Tropical storm ivo, currently about 500 miles southwest of cabo
san lucas, will generate a southeasterly swell reaching california
Sunday and persisting through Tuesday. The peak of the swell
should occur Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with a period
around 14 seconds. While the peak swell heights will most likely
fall between 4 and 6 feet, there is a chance for a range of 5 and
7 feet.

Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves on rock jetties
are certain. Surf heights should reach at least 4 to 6 feet over
south facing beaches, with a chance of peak surf reaching 6 to 8
feet especially for los angeles county, which would require a high
surf advisory.

There is a risk for impactful coastal flooding as well. The
highest tides will be late in the afternoon, and should reach
5.7 to 6.7 feet. If the peak swell ends up 3 to 5 feet, flooding
impacts would be minor and mainly in the form of beach erosion. If
the swell height ends up closer to 8 feet, more impactful
flooding would be expected for the vulnerable areas like pebbly
beach in avalon and the long beach peninsula if unprotected.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect from late Saturday night
through Tuesday morning for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening
for zones 645-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 6 am to noon pdt Friday
for zones 650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Friday for
zones 670-673. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
Elevated surf and strong rip currents are possible at area beaches
early next week.

Public... Mw
aviation... Sirard
marine... Kittell
beaches... Kittell
synopsis... Fisher
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPXC1 0 mi24 min ESE 6 G 7 62°F 993.4 hPa58°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 1 mi46 min ENE 6 G 6 64°F 62°F1008.4 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 7 mi34 min 56°F5 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 21 mi74 min 60°F 58°F7 ft1007.8 hPa (-0.0)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 41 mi64 min N 17 G 18 59°F 1007.7 hPa (-0.0)
46259 49 mi34 min 62°F7 ft
HRVC1 49 mi52 min 60°F 1008.9 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA7 mi2.1 hrsNW 1210.00 miFair68°F57°F68%1006.7 hPa
Santa Maria Public Airport/Capt G Allan Hancock Field, CA24 mi73 minVar 610.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F57°F73%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBP

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11W5W6W93W3CalmW4SW4SW8W6W8W9W8NW11W11NW17NW13NW17NW15NW17NW17NW12NW10
1 day agoNW10NW8NW7NW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3W7W8NW14NW15NW17
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2 days agoNW10NW8N8NW9NW8NW4W4NW7NW7NW5NW3NW3NW5CalmNW33NW4W7W9NW19NW13NW14NW13NW11

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:04 AM PDT     0.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:25 AM PDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:54 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:23 PM PDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:59 PM PDT     -1.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.10.20.30.2-0-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.20.411.51.71.71.40.90.2-0.4-1-1.3-1.4

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Bay, California
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Morro Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:58 AM PDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:00 AM PDT     1.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:54 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:09 PM PDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:52 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.722.32.52.62.52.321.81.71.822.32.83.43.843.93.532.521.61.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.