Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avilla Beach, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:26PM Thursday October 17, 2019 11:34 AM PDT (18:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:08PMMoonset 9:41AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 918 Am Pdt Thu Oct 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from 3 pm pdt this afternoon through Friday morning...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 kt late. Combined seas 7 to 8 ft dominant period 12 seconds, building to 10 to 11 ft dominant period 13 seconds in the afternoon. Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 12 to 13 ft dominant period 16 seconds.
Fri..N winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 11 to 12 ft dominant period 16 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 11 to 12 ft dominant period 16 seconds, subsiding to 10 to 11 ft dominant period 16 seconds after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 10 to 11 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 9 to 10 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Sun..N winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 8 to 10 ft.
Mon..N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft.
PZZ600 918 Am Pdt Thu Oct 17 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z, or 9 am pdt, a 978 mb low was across the gulf of alaska and a 1024 mb surface high was centered 1100 nm west of point conception.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avilla Beach, CA
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location: 35.17, -120.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 171805
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1105 am pdt Thu oct 17 2019

Synopsis 17 834 am.

Cooler temperatures are expected today through Saturday as an
upper level trough moves across the west coast. Gusty northwesterly
winds are expected this evening through Sunday, especially across
santa barbara and los angeles counties. The strongest winds will
be tonight into early Friday, and Saturday night into Sunday. Weak
to moderate santa ana winds are expected Sunday through Tuesday

Short term (tdy-sat) 17 942 am.

Winds and cooler temps the themes of the day as west east gradients
have turned onshore while the northerly flow remains in place.

Some marine layer clouds did form over la county with a depth
between 1500 and 2000'. Profilers all showing big cooling in the
boundary layer so it will be much cooler today. No real
significant changes in the models and the forecast looks on track.

Advisory level winds expected later this afternoon and tonight in
srn sb county, the antelope valley, and the i5 corridor down
through the santa clarita valley.

***from previous discussion***
winds are really the main story for today and most of the rest of
the forecast. Westerly wind with advisory level gusts to 45 mph
will develop in the antelope this afternoon. Late in the afternoon
and ESP during the evening strong north winds will develop as the
n to S grad turns strongly offshore helped along by a little upper
support and cold air advection. Advisory level winds with gust to
50 mph will develop in the sba mtns and south coast... The i-5
corridor in the la mtns and the santa clarita vly. These strong
north winds will last through sunrise on Friday.

The north winds will pile up clouds on the north facing slopes
along the kern county line. An eddy is supposed to develop low
clouds for the coastal sections of la county but the way things
have been going lately would not be surprised if skies stayed
clear.

Brisk NW flow sets up over the area on Friday. The offshore grads
from the north will help warm the coasts and vlys of la and vta
counties. Further cold air advection will cool the interior while
the coasts and vlys of sba and slo counties will see little
change.

There will be another north wind event Friday evening but it will
be a little weaker than tonight's still advisories will likely be
needed for the i-5 corridor and the sba south coast santa ynez
range.

A little trof will ripple through the NW flow on Saturday. It will
not have much effect on the weather over southern ca during the
day. It will be mostly sunny day with a few degrees of warming
brought about by hgt rises. MAX temps will come in about 2 to 4
degrees below normals.

The little trof will usher in a reinforcing shot of cold air for
Saturday evening. Northerly gradients will also increase with the
lax-bfl grad dipping to -6.5 mb and the sba-bfl grad falling to -6
mb. These kind of gradients will likely produce warning level
wind gusts through the i-5 corridor and the sba south coast.

Strong advisory level gusts will also be likely across much of the
rest of la and vta county notably excluding the san gabriel vly.

Long term (sun-wed) 17 321 am.

Both the ec and the GFS agree that the NW flow will push to the
east on Sunday and that an upper high will take up residence over
srn ca and Monday and persist until Wednesday.

There will be 2 to 3 mb of offshore flow both from the N and the
e. Since the upper high will be overhead there will be no thermal
or upper support with these santa ana winds and only non advisory
level 15 to 25 mph canyon winds are expected each morning.

Max temps will be the big story through the period. Hgts rise to
588 dm on Sun then to 591 dm on Monday and a rather august like
594 dm on Tuesday. Hgts do fall to 590 dm on Wednesday.

These high hgts and offshore flow will combine to bring well above
normal temps to the area all three days. By Tuesday there will be
more 90 degree readings than readings in the 80s. MAX temps will
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal across the coasts and vlys.

Offshore flow will
continue Sunday through Tuesday while at the same time the ridge
over the pacific will shift east and park itself over the west
coast. Temps will warm a few more degrees Sunday then really jump
up Mon Tue into the lower 90s for some inland coastal areas and
mid 90s for some of the valleys. With the upper ridge right
overhead upper support for winds will be weakening considerably.

Still expecting some gusty north to northeast winds on Sunday,
possibly advisory levels in some areas. Then much weaker Monday
and Tuesday.

There will be decent cooling along the coast on Wednesday but only
slight cooling inland as the ridge weakens and the offshore grads
trend onshore.

Aviation 17 1805z.

At 1555z at klax, the marine layer was 2100 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 3400 feet with a temperature of 18 c.

Good confidence inVFR conditions through the period as strong
north winds will prevent marine cloud formation.

High confidence with strong westerly winds across kpmd, kwjf this
afternoon through the overnight hours.

Klax... Good confidence in 18z taf.VFR conditions through the
period. Northerly crosswinds to 8 knots between 05z-10z this
evening into early Fri morning.

Kbur... Good confidence in 18z taf.VFR conditions through the
period.

Marine 17 940 am.

Outer waters... High confidence that SCA NW wind gusts and steep
seas will continue through mid afternoon, and at that time winds
are expected to increase with gale force gusts during the latter
half of the afternoon. A gale warning is in effect from mid- afternoon
through mid-morning Friday for the entire outer waters. After a
brief decrease in winds Friday morning to SCA level gusts, another
round of gale force winds is likely Friday night through Sunday.

Inner waters N of point sal... Moderate to high confidence in
sca level winds this afternoon through late tonight. There is a
20% chance for local gale force gusts this evening. There will be
a 60% chance for SCA level gusts Friday afternoon through the
overnight hours, and again for the same time on Saturday.

For the inner waters south of point conception... A gale warning
remains in effect for the western portion of the channel from
mid- afternoon through early Friday morning. Otherwise SCA level
westerly gusts can be expected each day across the western
portion during the late afternoon and evening hours through the
weekend.

For the santa monica bay... An SCA has been issued for gusty
northwest winds over the western portions of zone 655.

Hazardous short period seas are expected across all of the waters
during much of the forecast period due to strong winds and large,
steep seas, combined with a long period NW swell.

Beaches 17 942 am.

A northwest swell will begin to move into the waters early today,
increasing through the day with high surf expected along the
central coast by this evening. The surf will build to 10 to 12
feet on west to northwest facing beaches Thursday night, peaking
with sets to 14 feet by late Friday morning through Friday
evening, and then will gradually subside through Saturday morning.

There is a chance that the surf will remain near or above the
high surf threshold of 10 feet through Saturday evening.

South of point conception, the northwesterly component of the
swell means that less of the energy will make it to shore.

However, the west facing ventura beaches could see surf up to 5 or
6 feet Friday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am
pdt Saturday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect from 6 pm this evening to 6 am pdt
Friday for zones 39-52. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am pdt
Friday for zones 54-88. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect from 4 pm this afternoon to 11 pm pdt
this evening for zone 59. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Friday for zone
645. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale warning in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 3 am pdt
Friday for zone 650. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 9
pm pdt this evening for zone 655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt this afternoon
for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale warning in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 9 am pdt
Friday for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
Moderate to strong northerly winds are expected through Sunday,
focused over santa barbara and los angeles counties. These winds
may produce damaging gusts near 60 mph Saturday night around the
santa ynez range and the interstate 5 corridor. These winds and
moderately dry conditions may result in critical fire weather
conditions in santa barbara county. Gusty santa ana winds are
possible Sunday into Monday morning with critical fire weather
conditions possible over los angeles and ventura counties.

Public... Mw rorke
aviation... Sweet kaplan
marine... Sweet kaplan
beaches... Sweet kaplan
synopsis... Kaplan stewart
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPXC1 0 mi31 min W 19 G 22 61°F 1013.2 hPa54°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 1 mi47 min W 21 G 25 62°F 59°F1013.4 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 7 mi35 min 59°F5 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 21 mi45 min 59°F 60°F8 ft1013.4 hPa (+1.6)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 41 mi35 min N 18 G 21 56°F 1012.2 hPa (+1.3)
46259 49 mi35 min 61°F9 ft
HRVC1 49 mi47 min 58°F 1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA7 mi39 minN 910.00 miFair70°F50°F49%1012.5 hPa
Santa Maria Public Airport/Capt G Allan Hancock Field, CA24 mi44 minNW 610.00 miFair68°F53°F59%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBP

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13W9CalmNW9NW11NW11NW11NW7NW8W5NW5CalmE3CalmCalmNE3SE5NW3W3SE43NW7N10
G16
N9
1 day agoNW13W4NW8NW9NW12NW14NW10SW4NW5NW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE4CalmCalmE6CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW5NW15NW13W13NW14NW10NW8NW4CalmCalmNW4N4CalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
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Thu -- 12:55 AM PDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 AM PDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:41 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:03 PM PDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:25 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:22 PM PDT     -2.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:08 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.90.70.3-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.40.10.91.72.32.62.31.70.7-0.4-1.5-2.3-2.7-2.6-2.1-1.4-0.6

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Bay, California
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Morro Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:54 AM PDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:13 AM PDT     1.98 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:42 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:55 PM PDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:25 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:41 PM PDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:08 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.72.82.72.42.1222.32.73.33.94.34.44.23.72.92.11.40.80.60.50.81.2

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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (14,3,4,5)
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.