Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avilla Beach, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:50PM Thursday February 20, 2020 5:13 PM PST (01:13 UTC) Moonrise 5:08AMMoonset 3:14PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 205 Pm Pst Thu Feb 20 2020
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 13 seconds, building to 6 to 7 ft at 13 seconds in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 14 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 8 ft dominant period 13 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 9 to 11 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 9 to 11 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 9 to 12 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft.
PZZ600 205 Pm Pst Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z, or 1 pm pst, a 1052 mb surface high was located over nw colorado, while a 1018 mb thermal trough was located over the southern ca coast. This pattern will break down as a 1016 mb surface low about 300 nm W of san francisco approaches the ca coast. An associated cold front extending south of the low center will move southward over the offshore waters through Friday, then cross the waters S of point conception Friday night and Saturday morning. This system will bring a slight chance of Thunderstorms to the coastal waters S of point conception. Increasing nw winds are then expected across the waters Saturday night through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avilla Beach, CA
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location: 35.17, -120.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 210036 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 436 PM PST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. 20/855 AM.

It will be sunny today with above normal temperatures. Clouds will increase on Friday and it will be a few degrees cooler. An approaching storm will bring showers to the area Friday night and Saturday. Dry weather returns Sunday into next week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN). 20/205 PM.

Tonight we will get a break from the marine layer clouds as offshore flow continues to be strong enough to keep clouds away. However, there is a small chance of clouds over the southern portion of the LA County coast by the early morning. Friday will be another sunny day otherwise with light offshore flow in the morning. As a cutoff low approaches, the winds will shift from the southeast in the afternoon. Temperatures will be warm with high temperatures a few degrees above normal, but cooler than today.

Models are indicating the cutoff low is now remaining far offshore on Friday, then making its approach to Southern California on Friday night. Now timing is a little later than previously thought, with the low center around 40 NM south of the Channel Islands by around sunrise. Because of its more west track, the low will entrain a little more moisture and bring a pretty solid chance of rain to the region. Increasing southerly flow bringing in moisture from the ocean will also help rain chances, especially over south-facing slopes. There will be a chance of rain starting Friday evening mainly for points north of Point Conception (especially higher terrain), then a little lesser chance in Ventura and western LA Counties. After midnight on Saturday showers are likely everywhere.

The low will continue moving eastward into LA County by Saturday afternoon, then accelerate towards Las Vegas by early evening. As the low moves eastward, rain chances over western areas will start to decrease by the afternoon into the evening. Wraparound moisture will continue the chance of rain over eastern LA County through the evening.

Overall, total rainfall will be pretty light, with amounts ranging from around a tenth to a quarter inch over the coasts and valleys. The mountains will see a bit more, especially southern facing slopes which will get orographic enhancement, from a quarter to half inch. With the low directly overhead and good instability indicated by high-res models, have added a slight chance of thunderstorms to the coastal waters south of Point Conception and southern portions of Ventura and LA Counties late Friday night through Saturday morning. Therefore there may be some localized rain totals above these amounts.

Snow levels will lower to 5500 feet locally down to 5000 feet. 1 to 3 inches of new snow can be expected mainly at resort level. Therefore not expecting snow-related impacts to the major mountain passes as they will likely have mainly rain.

After the low exits, dry NW flow will set up on Sunday and skies will clear out. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees but still remain a little below normal.

LONG TERM (MON-THU). 20/226 PM.

The dry NW flow aloft that set up on Sunday in the wake of the low will continue early next week and a ridge will begin to build back in. It will be a return to dry and sunny weather with temperatures above normal for next week.

On Monday there will be some decent northerly flow, then will shift to northeasterly Tuesday through Thursday. The offshore flow will help temperatures rise close to 80 degrees over the valleys of LA and Ventura Counties mid to late week. The GFS and the EC have been going back and forth on how strong winds will be and which day will have the strongest winds. At this point it looks like Tuesday will be slightly stronger.

AVIATION. 21/0035Z.

At 0020Z, the marine layer depth was around 400 ft deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 800 ft with a temperature near 20 deg C.

Hi confidence in the 00Z TAFs with mostly VFR conditions expected through Friday. However, MVFR vsbys are likely due to mist at KLGB from about 09Z=16Z Fri. Thee is also a 20 percent chance of IFR cigs at KLAX/KLGB on Friday morning.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conditions likely through Friday evening. There is a 20 percent chance of east to northeast winds reaching 10 knots Friday morning.

KBUR . High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conditions expected through Friday.

MARINE. 20/115 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through Saturday, then there is a 70% chance SCA level winds and seas Saturday night through Monday, and a 50% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times on Tuesday. There is also a 20% chance of Gale force wind gusts between Sunday and Monday.

For the Inner Waters north of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Tuesday, except for a 50 percent chance of SCA wind gusts at times Sunday night.

For the Inner Waters south of Pt. Conception, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Tuesday, except for a 50% chance of SCA level W-NW winds across western portions of the SBA Channel Sat night, and a 20%-30% chance of SCA gusts Sunday into Sunday evening for the same area. There is also a 20%-30% chance of SCA gusts for western portions of the southern inner waters zone (PZZ655) Saturday night.

In addition, a cold upper level low pressure system is forecast to move through the coastal waters late Friday night and Saturday morning. This system will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the waters S of Point Conception during the period. Any thunderstorms that develop would bring the potential for brief downpours, locally gusty winds and choppy seas, small hail and dangerous cloud-to- ocean lightning. Conditions will also be favorable for the formation of waterspouts.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).

There is a chance of gusty north to northeast winds Monday through Wednesday.



PUBLIC . Stewart AVIATION . Gomberg MARINE . Sirard SYNOPSIS . Sweet

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPXC1 0 mi35 min E 7 G 8.9 60°F 1017.4 hPa47°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 1 mi55 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 61°F 57°F1017.9 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 7 mi43 min 60°F3 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 21 mi33 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 57°F1017.6 hPa51°F
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 41 mi73 min N 9.9 G 11 56°F 1017.4 hPa (-0.9)
46259 49 mi43 min 58°F4 ft
HRVC1 49 mi55 min 60°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA7 mi17 minNW 1110.00 miFair64°F37°F38%1017.1 hPa
Santa Maria Public Airport/Capt G Allan Hancock Field, CA24 mi22 minWNW 510.00 miFair66°F43°F43%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBP

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW11NW6NW3SE3CalmCalmSE5E4CalmE4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmNW4Calm3CalmNW9NW12W4NW11
1 day agoNW13NW6NW8N6NW4NW7N5E3E4SE4CalmSE5CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS3NW4NW8NW11NW17NW14NW8
2 days agoNW10NW6NW4NW56
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Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:56 AM PST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:07 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:57 AM PST     2.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM PST     -3.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:13 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:49 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:00 PM PST     1.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.4-0.20.41.32.12.832.71.90.6-0.8-2.1-3.1-3.6-3.5-2.8-1.7-0.60.411.21.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Bay, California
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Morro Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:18 AM PST     2.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:08 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:13 AM PST     4.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:13 PM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:36 PM PST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:50 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:18 PM PST     3.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.32.12.22.63.23.94.54.84.74.23.32.31.30.4-0.2-0.20.20.81.62.32.833

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.