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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 903 Am Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm pst this evening through late Monday night...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt in the evening, strongest western portion, becoming 10 to 20 kt late. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 8 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 903 Am Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 17z or 9 am pst, a 1040 mb high was centered in colorado. A 1030 mb was located 400 nm west of Monterey. A weak thermal trough was located just west of the inner waters. Gusty ne flow across the inner waters will weaken by late morning.

FXUS66 KLOX 101725 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 925 AM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
10/906 AM.

The Santa Ana winds will continue across portions of Ventura County and northwestern Los Angeles County through this morning.
Dry conditions and partly to mostly clear skies are expected through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Offshore flow will result in above-normal high temperatures each day in many areas. The dry air, however, will allow colder than normal overnight lows in wind sheltered areas. Moderate Santa Ana winds may return for midweek.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...10/923 AM.

***UPDATE***

Winds are not as strong or widespread this morning as cold air advection and winds aloft have weakened since yesterday. Pressure gradients are still strongly offshore to the east but without that upper support winds today will not be as strong and will taper off earlier in the afternoon. Temperatures will also be warmer today with the cold air shifting east. Most areas already starting off at least 2-5 degrees warmer than yesterday and expect those trends to hold through the day.

Wind advisories and warnings are scheduled to expire at noon today and that looks fairly close based on the latest hi res models.
Will likely still have some gusts between 30 and 40 mph across the inland parts of LA/Ventura Counties, especially in the elevated areas but for the most part winds will drop below advisory levels by this afternoon.

***From Previous Discussion***

Tonight there the dry air will again bring an odd mix of overnight lows with much colder lows in the wind sheltered areas and warmer than normal lows where it is windy.

Monday and Tuesday look quite benign. Offshore flow will continue from both the north and east and while they will produce some morning canyon winds but only the 15 to 25 mph sub advisory kind.
The ridge will flatten on Monday and a weak dry trof will move over the area Tuesday. A large mass of mid level clouds riding up and through the backside of the ridge will make Monday a mostly cloudy one with clearing skies arriving on Tuesday. Forecasting max temps on Monday will be tricky as the clouds and offshore flow compete against each other. Right now it looks like the Santa Ana wind corridor will warm as there will be no cool air advection.
Less offshore flow will cool the VTA and LA coasts. A little offshore push across SBA county will likely bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to that county. Tuesday's temp forecast is much easier as the approaching trof lowers hgts and further decreases offshore flow - max temps will fall 4 to 8 degrees. Despite the cooling most max temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...10/253 AM.

Another Santa Ana is on tap for Wednesday as Tuesday's trof morphs into an upper low near Las Vegas. This will set up NE flow aloft and some cool air advection. The forecast gradients are currently about 3 mb offshore both from the N and E. It is likely, however, that this fcst is a little on the low side as the fcst tends to become more offshore as the event grows nearer. This should be a moderate offshore event with 45 to 55 mph gusts likely in the Santa Ana prone areas.

Ridging and offshore flow are on tap for Thu and Fri. There will be sub advisory offshore canyon winds each morning. Rising hgts and continued offshore flow will bring a degree or 2 of warming each day. Overnight lows will be on the cool side in the wind sheltered areas.

There is a large amount of mdl disagreement for the weekend forecast and a large spread in the ensemble members. Most solutions agree that Saturday will be cooler and cloudier. While there is little consensus between various forecasts there does seem to be a growing possibility of rain for Sunday.

AVIATION
10/1137Z.

At 1130Z, there was no marine inversion or marine layer at KLAX.

Mostly clear skies with CAVU conditions are expected at all sites through the period. High confidence in gusty northeasterly winds, mainly across Ventura and LA counties, this morning but moderate confidence in timing of wind changes. Light to moderate turbulence and LLWS are possible just about anywhere, particularly across the mountains and foothills this morning.

KLAX...High confidence in 12Z TAF with CAVU conds thru the pd.
There is a 30% chance of an east winds component of 7-8 kt thru 18Z this morning.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF with CAVU conds thru the pd.

MARINE
10/914 AM.

In the Outer Waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels thru much of tonight. In zone PZZ670, SCA level NW winds are expected late tonight thru late Mon night, with a 40% chance of SCA level NW winds Tue into Tue night.
In zone PZZ673, SCA level NW winds are expected very late tonight or early Mon thru Tue morning, with a 40% chance of SCA level winds Tue afternoon/evening. In zone PZZ676, SCA level NW winds are expected to develop Mon and cont thru Tue, with a 40% chance of SCA level winds Tue night. SCA conds are not expected Wed thru Thu.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level NW winds during the afternoon/evening hours Mon and Tue.
Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Wed.

In the inner waters S of Pt. Conception, SCA level NE winds are expected this morning from Santa Monica to Ventura out to Anacapa Island. There is a 30% chance of SCA level NE winds in these areas Wed morning. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Wed.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>372-374-376>381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning in effect until noon PST today for zone 375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Avila
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Sun -- 12:43 AM PST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:42 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:00 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM PST     2.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:40 PM PST     -3.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:02 PM PST     Moonset
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Morro Bay
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Sun -- 01:16 AM PST     1.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:01 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:07 AM PST     4.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:02 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:44 PM PST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
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Morro Bay, California, Tide feet

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