Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mesic, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 10 PM Thu...No changes needed with eve update. Quiet night on tap, though very warm and humid for this time of year.

Prev disc
As of 7 PM Thu
No big changes. Diurnal storms beginning to diminish in coverage, and will exit nern parts of NC in the next hour to two, with dry conditions overnight.

Prev disc
As of 330 PM Thursday
Upper ridging will crest over the area through the evening, then begin to flatten as shortwave energy lifts out of the deep South ahead of a mid level trough over the central CONUS. Meanwhile, the Bermuda high will remain centered off the Southeast Coast pumping in a moist tropical airmass into the region. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is primarily situated along the sea breeze this afternoon and will slowly migrate inland through the afternoon and early evening but then diminish late evening with loss of heating. Despite moderate instability with SBCAPE over 3000 J/Kg, bulk shear remaining negligible and don't expect storms to reach severe criteria but stronger storms could produce strong wind gusts to around 40 mph. Could also see locally heavy rainfall as storm motion will be weak and have already seen some storms training or nearly stationary.

Expect mainly dry conditions overnight once the convection wanes late this evening but cannot rule out and isolated shower or thunderstorm. Some guidance does show showers moving onshore along the Crystal Coast late tonight but it isn't supported in a majority of the models so have kept any mentionable PoPs off the coast at this time. Temps will be quite mild with lows in the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
As of 350 PM Thursday...Shortwave energy continues to lift through upper ridging centered off the coast on Friday bringing greater covers of showers and thunderstorms. Plenty of moisture will reside across the region with PW values increasing to around 2" and could see locally heavy rainfall where storms train over the same area and WPC has a marginal excessive rainfall risk. The severe threat appears limited at this time with sufficient cloud cover keeping sfc based heating a bit suppressed, SBCAPE peaking around 1500-2000 J/Kg, marginal bulk shear around 15-20 kt, and weak mid level lapse rates. Still cannot rule out a few storms producing strong wind gusts. Highs tomorrow generally in the mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 0400 Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Warm, Moist, Unsettled.

This weekend, two sluggish systems inch toward the FA, a cold front sagging Sward from Great Lakes and a midlevel cutoff low dragging Eward from TX. Moisture content remains ample in onshore flow through the bottom half of the column keeping mentionable PoPs in the forecast for the vast majority of the period. Showers/TS in general summer diurnal pattern with best chances associated with seabreeze in afternoon and evenings becoming confined offshore nocturnally.

Early next week mid level trough approaches from the W with the offshore high holding strong keeping moisture and instability in place for more summer precip pattern forecasts. The aforementioned front is forecast to remain N of the FA through the weekend and early week, but waves traveling along the boundary make details of the front's exact location a little tricky.

Once the midlevel shortwave has cleared the FA next week, the effects of the offshore ridging will reach further W, leading to more zonal flow aloft and a less dynamic pattern, at least briefly.

General warming trend in Ts through the long term, MaxTs in mid upper 80s maybe touching 90 and MinTs low 70s heating up to MaxTs in the low to mid 90s with MinTs in mid 70s by late next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Sat/...
As of 145 AM Fri...VFR conditions prevail across area terminals with light southwesterly winds and widespread cirrus. Cloud cover will keep fog at bay but some low stratus remains possible early this morning mainly for the coastal plain. Shower and thunderstorm coverage more widespread than yesterday across ENC, with heavy rainfall threat resulting in possible brief but severe vis and cig restrictions at impacted terminals. Ongoing convection is likely to cease after 02-03z.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...Unsettled conditions will prevail through the period, keeping diurnal showers and tstorms in the forecast each day. Expect periods of sub- VFR flight cats with gusty winds under showers/storms in afternoon and evening with early morning fog development possible for areas that see rain.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 430 AM Thursday...The Bermuda High remains centered off the coast bringing SW winds around 10-15 kt and seas around 2-3 ft with a predominant period around 7-8 seconds. Thunderstorms will mainly be over land through the evening, though may impact portions of the sounds/rivers, but could see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over the coastal waters late tonight into Friday.

LONG TERM /Friday though Monday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...Generally SW 10-15kt through the long term, strongest during peak heating, calming ever so slightly overnight. Typical summer-time precip pattern: offshore showers early AM, clearing afternoons, nocturnal showers and storms. Winds slightly stronger weekend, SWerly 15-20kt offshore.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.