Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mesic, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) An Arctic blast will bring below normal temperatures through Wednesday. Wind chills values are expected to drop to around 15 to 20 range tonight and again Tuesday night. The coldest temperatures will come Tuesday night with lows in the teens for all areas away from the beaches with high pressure overhead.

2) An Arctic front will push through the area late Friday with a low pressure system passing along the coast over the weekend bringing a threat threat for winter weather impacts across ENC.
Confidence is increasing that winter weather will occur over the area that may bring impactful snow and ice accumulations.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A dry front/trough will push south across the area this evening with Arctic high pressure building into the area through Wednesday bringing well below normal temps. Lows tonight expected in the mid 20s away from the coast and upper 20s to mid 30s along the beaches with light winds bringing wind chill values into the upper teens to mid 20s. Highs Tuesday will struggle to reach the low to mid 40s. The coldest night of the week will come Tuesday night with clear skies and light/calm winds allowing for good radiational cooling with low expected around 15-20 degrees inland from the coast and 20s along the coast. Wind chill values will be similar to temps with little wind to speak of. Probabilities are low for reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria (apparent Temp <15 degrees) either night but will be closest to threshold on Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A series of northern stream shortwaves will reinforce deep troughing over the Eastern US late this week through early next week. A strong cold front will push through the area late Friday with Arctic high pressure building into the area from the north setting the stage for maintaining cold temperatures across the region. Low pressure will then develop along the stalled front offshore and pass offshore late Saturday and Saturday night bringing the moisture across the region with increasing chances for seeing wintry precip across the region.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty with precipitation types as there is expected be a warm nose that will allow for a melting layer around 850mb and the depth of the cold air below. There is increasing potential for a significant impacts with snow, sleet and freezing rain all possible over the weekend, however it is much too early to try to pinpoint where specific p-types will set up. Stay tuned to the forecast over the next several days with the increasing threat for wintry wx.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR flight cats will persist through the TAF period. High pressure builds Eward over Eastern NC behind a reinforcing cold front, which will be accompanied with some thin upper level clouds, passing through the first half of tonight. Light SWerly winds ahead of the front, becoming NWerly behind it. Slightly stronger winds TUE with some gustiness (but less than 15kt)
during peak heating. SKC persists TUE.

Outlook: Predominant VFR conditions expected across Eastern NC through late week as high pressure persists. Next chance for flight restrictions this weekend.

MARINE
Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. A reinforcing front will drop through the waters this evening with winds becoming NW around 10-20 kt, strongest across the northern coastal waters where frequent gust to 25 kt is possible. Made a slight adjustment to the SCA from Duck to Ocracoke for slightly later timing with the strongest surge expected between 06-12z.

Tuesday through Friday: Lighter winds expected Tuesday through much of the rest of the week with speeds generally 5-15 kt with mainly high pressure in control. The next low pressure system will impact the area this weekend which will likely bring strong SCA conditions and a chance for Gale Force winds over portions of the waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.