Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mesic, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 271142 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 642 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will stall to the north of the area through Sunday then push back south through the region on Monday. High pressure will pass to the north Tuesday followed by possible low pressure moving through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 640 AM Saturday . The upper ridge will continue to extend north through the Carolinas through the weekend. At the surface, a warm front currently just east of Highway 17 early this morning is forecast to lift north of the coastal plain late this morning, then stall near/just north of the Albemarle Sound region this afternoon. The large rain area associated with the front has shifted north of the area with the bulk of any additional rainfall expected to occur mainly north of the area for the remainder of today. Widespread low clouds and areas of fog blanketing the area this morning should mix out by early afternoon with a decent amount of sunshine expected thereafter. This combined with the flow veering to the SW in the wake of the front, will cause temps to warm into the low and mid 70s inland today, with some upper 70s possible depending on how much insolation the area receives. Cooler 60s will occur along the coast. One potential concern today will be sea fog. As warm, moist air crosses the cold shelf waters, advection fog is likely to occur along the coast at some point. This seems most likely toward this evening when the winds become lighter and the mixed layer decreases.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. As of 415 AM Saturday . Eastern NC will be within the warm sector tonight with a southerly flow of warm, moist air continuing across the area. While skies will initially be clear, the potential for radiational fog to develop inland once winds decouple this evening will be good. Along the coast sea fog should occur and there is a potential for a period of widespread dense fog all areas after midnight. The aforementioned warm front should became stationary near/just north of the Albemarle sound, keeping the best chance for rainfall just to our north.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 330 AM Sat . A very warm and dry start to the period this weekend, then rain to begin the work week as a cold front pushes through, followed by brief high pressure Tuesday, and more rain by mid week as a low pressure area moves through, then dry again late week with another high building in.

Sunday . A very warm and mainly dry forecast on tap as upr ridging envelops the sern CONUS. 582 dm heights translate to highs 75-80 Sun. Temps near the coast will naturally be much cooler due to the still cold water temps, so will remain in the 60s. Cannot rule out bouts of sea fog near the Crystal Coast and parts of Pamlico/Albemarle Sounds through the weekend, as warm and moist air flows over the cold shelf waters. Have continued only small pops for Sunday, as shower chcs very slim due to the upr ridging in place and frontal boundary still residing north of the VA/NC border.

Monday . Next good rain chc arrives to start the work week, as model guid continues in good agreement on next progressive shortwave swinging through the Mid Atlantic and northeast, pushing the aforementioned stalled frontal bndry to the north, southward through ENC. Cont categorical pops on Mon due to the good agreement amongst 27/00Z global model suite. Rain quickly ends by the evening as dry air rushes in behind the front with cooler high pres building in.

Tuesday . Good agreement that transitory high pres will be passing through the Mid Atlantic, bringing cool, dry, and sunny weather to the region. Have taken out all mention of rain as a result. High temps below climo, only in the 45-50 degree range with brisk nne winds, esp near the coast.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . Slightly better model agreement on upper pattern by midweek, as most models indicate next shortwave ejecting out of the Four Corners region early in the week, passing through the TN Valley on Tue, and then through the sern CONUS mid week. 27/00Z ECM/CMC/UKMET all in agreement on this soln, and bring decent rain chances late Tue night and esp Wed. Still some disagreement on position of sfc low, and whether it remains suppressed to the south, or rides through the Carolinas. A southerly soln would keep best covg of rain to the south of ENC, but fairly decent clustering amongst ECM ens members on a further north trajectory warrant continued high chc pops, in the 40-50% range. Temps near climo this period, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s and lows 35-45.

Thursday through Friday . Drying expected as another high pres area builds in on progressive quasi zonal flow. Temps appear to be near climo due to the zonal pattern, with highs in the 55-65 degree range, and lows generally 40-45.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 640 AM Saturday . Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions in fog and low clouds occurring early this morning should dissipate with prevailing VFR conditions developing 16-18Z as SW flow occurs and the mixing layer increases. Expecting to see fog and low clouds with LIFR/IFR conditions redevelop late this evening around 6Z and continue overnight as low level moisture remains plentiful with strong radiational cooling expected.

Long Term /Sun through Wed/ . As of 330 AM Sat . VFR conts through Sun as high pres will be in control. Next cold front moves through Monday with yet another good chc of rain showers and sub VFR conditions. Dry high pres builds for Mon night through Tue with VFR again. A low pres area moves through mid week with rain chances and more sub VFR possible.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 640 AM Saturday . Continue the SCA's for the coastal waters today as a warm front lifts north through the waters this morning. Winds peaked earlier this morning with the northward moving warm front and have begin to diminish this morning and will continue to slowly diminish this afternoon and tonight. SE/SE winds 15-20 kt early this morning will veer to S/SW and diminish to 10-15 kt this afternoon. Winds will continue to diminish to 5-10 kt tonight. 6-10 ft seas this morning subside to 3-5 ft this evening, and 2-4 ft overnight. One other concern is the potential for some sea fog in the warm/moist SSW flow today and tonight with this likely to develop towards evening once winds diminish and the mixing layer decreases.

Long Term /Sun through Wed/ . As of 330 AM Sat . Generally poor boating conditions through the long term as several low pressure systems and fronts impact the waters and sounds. Winds remain swrly but may inc a bit to 15-25 and SCA likely needed Sun night ahead of next cold front that pushes through on Mon. Winds turn N to NE Mon night into Tue and remain in the SCA range as decent cold air surge pushes into E NC. Periods of sea fog possibly continuing into Mon morning as sw winds bring warm and moist airmass over cold waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ150- 152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156- 158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . JME SHORT TERM . JME LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . JME/TL MARINE . JME/TL

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	32 mi	48 min	SSW 5.1 G 6	58°F	53°F		1022.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	39 mi	66 min	S 8.9 G 9.9	60°F			1021.7 hPa (-0.0)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	46 mi	48 min	S 1.9 G 7	59°F	51°F		1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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NE5 G8

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SW6 G9

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC	13 mi	70 min	S 5	7.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	58°F	57°F	97%	1021.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)

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NE9

NE16 G23

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NE18 G31

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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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