Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mesic, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 170644 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 144 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will gradually build over the area this weekend into early next week. A dry cold front will move through early Wednesday morning.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 1005 PM Sat . Shortwave pivoting around broad upper low centered over New York is lifting further offshore, with upper heights rising and subsidence increasing. Weak high pressure will continue to build into the area overnight. Skies now completely clear inland and will remain so overnight with westerly winds between 5-10 kt. Gusty conditions likely to prevail along coastal locales with a few gusts to 25 kt still possible. Lows drop into the upper 20s to low 30s inland, and mid to upper 30s for the beaches.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. As of 230 PM Sat . Surface high pressure will build over the area, while strengthening shortwave dives through the Central US. Clear skies early with increasing mid and high clouds through the day. Low level thickness values support highs in the low 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 315 AM Saturday . Another strong shortwave will cross the state on Monday, but the best moisture and lift will be north of our CWA and will keep the forecast dry, just show an increase in clouds. Lows behind the shortwave Tuesday morning will be the coldest of the week, dropping into the upper 20s. A dry cold front crosses the area on Wednesday morning with little fanfare except a wind shift.

A pattern change starts to evolve late Wednesday night into early Thursday. Deeper moisture will lift northeast from the Gulf of Mexico near a east-west oriented frontal boundary. A chance of showers returns to the forecast Thursday. Differences between the GFS and ECMWF for Friday as the GFS shunts most of the moisture to our south, while the ECMWF shows a wetter pattern. To account for the difference, have kept low chance PoPs in the forecast for now. High temperatures will mainly be in the 50s, while overnight lows moderate from the 30s into the 40s by Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term /Through Sunday/ . As of 1240 AM Sun . Quiet TAF period ahead with VFR conditions expected. High pressure building overhead will keep skies clear and continue diminishing westerly winds this morning around 5-10 kts. Winds pick up slightly again Sun aftn as a weak disturbance moves through late Sunday and washes out. Expect more SWrly flow around 10 kts with a few gusts around 15 kts in the aftn. Mid to upper level clouds during the aftn and into the evening with dry weather forecasted.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/ . As of 330 AM Saturday . With high pressure in control, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some increase in clouds are possible Monday with a strong mid-level shortwave and on Wednesday with a dry cold front early in the day, but ceilings should remain in VFR status.

MARINE. Short Term /through Sunday/ . As of 1010 Sat . Dropped SCAs over inland rivers and sounds, and downgraded to a Small Craft over the Pamlico Sound. Hi-res guidance not handling current situation too well for inland waters so confidence in ending time of SCA is lower than normal. Gale headlines on track with Diamond Shoals gusting a persistent 40-50 kt for the past several hours.

Prev disc . Strong winds and rough seas expected across the waters into tonight. Gale Warnings and SCA continue for the waters, with strongest winds across the south/central waters and Pamlico Sound. Latest obs show W/WSW winds 20-30 kt with seas 4-8 ft. Strong westerly winds 20-30 kt with gusts 30-40 kt will continue through late evening, then slowly diminishing late as gradient relaxes. W winds 15-20 kt Sun morning, becoming WSW 10-20 kt in the afternoon. Seas will peak at 7-10 ft this evening, subsiding to 4-8 ft Sunday morning and 3-5 ft Sun afternoon.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/ . As of 335 AM Saturday . A period of fairly poor marine weather is expected for most of the extended period. A strong shortwave will lead to additional gusty west winds at 20-30 knots Monday into Monday night. West winds drop to 10-15 knots Tuesday before becoming NW and increasing early Wednesday as a dry cold front crosses the waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 330 PM Sat . Minor water level rises will be possible along the soundside of the Outer Banks through tonight as westerly winds increase. Main impacts likely from Oregon Inlet to Hatteras Village, will issue CF Advisory with inundation up to 1 ft agl for low lying areas. Received report of water level rises near Salvo.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for NCZ205. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ135. Gale Warning until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ152-154- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CQD/MS SHORT TERM . CQD LONG TERM . CTC AVIATION . CTC/ML MARINE . CTC/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	32 mi	45 min	WNW 8.9 G 15	41°F	52°F		1013.6 hPa (+0.9)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	39 mi	45 min	W 19 G 23	44°F			1013.3 hPa (+1.0)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	46 mi	45 min	W 19 G 23	44°F	51°F		1012 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC	13 mi	49 min	W 9	10.00 mi	Fair	39°F	29°F	67%	1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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