Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mesic, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 181959 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 259 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will approach from the west tonight, crossing the area early Sunday. Cold high pressure then dominates the region for most of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 245 PM Saturday . The latest analysis is showing the ridging aloft continues to break down as a broad trough moves into the region. At the surface, high pressure continues to extend into the area from the northeast, while the weak coastal trough well offshore has weaken further and will dissipate later this afternoon. Light rain showers remained along the weak coastal trough and should remain over the waters for most of this afternoon, but continued the mention of slight chance over the Outer Banks.

Eventually the weak coastal trough will break down allowing for high pressure to take control again (briefly), while the low pressure system over the Great Lakes strengthens and it's associated cold front nears the TN/NC border tonight. This will allow for the low level jet to develop winds of 45-55 knots across the region tonight, bringing gusty southerly winds and very efficient low level moisture transport. Models continue to show the best coverage of showers to occur late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, the lack upper level support and most of the instability will remain closer to the Gulf Stream, rainfall rates and rain amounts will be around 0.10" despite scattered to widespread shower coverage through much of the night. The band of greatest moisture will work offshore within several hours of sunrise as the cold front associated with the aforementioned low begins to work into the area from the west, and POPs trend downward at the end of the period.

Temperatures will continue to rise through tonight with our low temperature occurring this evening, in the upper 40s to mid 50s and increasing into the mid 50's to around 60 degree overnight due to WAA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/. As of 245 PM Saturday . The cold front will push through tomorrow morning with lingering showers along the coastal counties through mid-morning. Skies start to clear from W to E Sunday afternoon as colder/drier airmass starts to filter into the area. Expect highs in the mid 50s to low 60s as the best cold air advection comes in tomorrow night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 245 PM Sat . High pressure will remain in control through most of the week. The next frontal system will approach late this week and impact the area next weekend.

Sunday night through Wed . Much colder and drier air will spread in Sunday night with lows dropping into the 25 to 30 dgr range inland and low/mid 30s beaches. Arctic high pressure will grad build E thru mid week. Mdls cont to show short wave crossing Tue but moisture expected to remain mainly well offshore and cont only slight pops for portions of OBX Tue into Tue night. Expect mclr skies inland thru period with cold highs in the lowers 40s Mon and Tue warming a bit to mid/upr 40s Wed. Lows will be in the 20s inland to mainly 30s beaches.

Thu through Sat . Grad warming this period as high pres crests over the region Thu with building hgts aloft. The high will then slide offshore Fri with srly winds developing ahead of approaching frontal system. Clouds will be increasing Fri and may see small chc of shra late. Better precip chances Sat ahead of the front. Highs will be in the 50s Thu then reach lower 60s most spots Fri and Sat.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term /through Sunday/ . As of 1240 PM Sat . Continuing to see VFR conditions this afternoon into the evening. Clouds are moving in ahead of the approaching cold front with winds slowly becoming predominantly Srly into the evening. Surface winds will begin to ramp up after sunset as the cold front closes in. In conjunction, a strong 50+ kt S to SWrly LLJ will precede the approaching front, resulting in a few hours of LLWS concerns after 00Z. Moisture advection from the LLJ will be conducive for MVFR ceilings overnight into early Sunday morning. Moments of sub-MVFR conditions may occur within passing showers as the front passes through. Improvements to VFR will occur towards the end of the TAF period, but expect gusty Wrly winds.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/ . As of 245 PM Sat . Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with cold high pressure in control.

MARINE. Short Term /through Sunday/ . As of 245 PM Saturday . The weak coastal trough well offshore has weaken further this afternoon as the sfc high pressure to the north moved further east. The gradient will tighten as the cold front approaches the area closer and high pressure remain over the coastal waters. Winds will increase to Gale Warning level as a low level jet develops tonight south of Oregon Inlet, while the rest of the marine area will be in Small Craft Advisory, except for the inland rivers. Overall, expect SW winds 20-30 knots tonight with seas building quickly to 6-13 ft overnight. After the cold front pushes through tomorrow morning, winds will become NW 15-25 knots by the afternoon with seas subsiding 5-7 late.

Despite increasingly warm and moist air being advected across the coastal waters, sea fog is not expected to be an issue thanks to the strong winds overnight.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/ . As of 245 PM Sat . Poor boating expected most of this period. NW winds 15 to 25 kt Sun night with CAA become N 15 to 25 kts Mon. Seas will slowly subside Mon afternoon, but will likely remain above 6 ft north of Ocracoke into at least Monday night. Short wave crossing Tue will lead to low pres developing well offshore and combined with high pres to the W will lead to NNE winds increasing to 20 to 30 kts and seas building back to 5 to 7 ft. NNE winds will cont at 15 to 25 kts Tue night and Wed with seas 5 to 7 ft. NNE winds will diminish to 10-20 kt Wed night and Thu with seas finally subsiding below 6 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . BM SHORT TERM . BM LONG TERM . RF/CQD AVIATION . CQD/ML MARINE . CQD/BM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	32 mi	59 min		56°F	54°F		1024.5 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	39 mi	89 min	S 16 G 19	60°F			1025.1 hPa (-3.9)	59°F
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	46 mi	59 min		55°F	50°F		1024.2 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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NW8 G15

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N12 G17

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NW8 G12

NW8 G16

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC	13 mi	93 min	SE 8	10.00 mi	Fair	70°F	46°F	44%	1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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