Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Charlotte, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Messages:

1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the western Carolinas this evening.

2) Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Monday afternoon and evening.

3) Warm and humid conditions will persist.

As of 5:25 PM EDT Sunday: We've currently got a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over our NC Piedmont and Foothill zones early this evening with the rest of our CWA free of convection. We have yet to issue any SPSs for stronger storms today, but we may still see a few cells that require one before the evening is over.

Otherwise, another unsettled day as our fcst area remains under the influence of a weak trough moving over the area. What is left of the trough translates across the CWA and brings a chance of some more pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the western edge of the high to the east allows for a broad warm sector with ample advected moisture from the south. Synoptic forcing remains weak, but given the increased PWATs and instability, should be enough to get a few storms going, especially over the northern portion of the area. Though a few storms are expected, the high continues to amplify and could act as a suppressor, keeping stronger storms at bay. Guidance from the CAMs suggests convection will remain concentrated toward the NC Piedmont this afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out a pop-up storm over the rest of the CWA though. Same idea for Monday as the remnant trough continues to weaken and gets absorbed into the general flow aloft.
PoP chances increase again during the afternoon, especially across the mountains. So rinse and repeat as the typical summertime pattern emerges. Isolated and locally heavy rainfall possible with any deve- loping storm. Temperatures warm into the upper 80s outside the mtns.
A few locations in the southern zones could also reach the low 90s.
Tis the season.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot and Humid Each Day with Above Normal Temps and Breezy SW Winds

2) Heat Indices will Climb into the Mid 90s to Lower 100s East of the Mountains Each Afternoon

3) Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue

Bermuda high will remain over the western Atlantic keeping moist SW'ly flow over the Southeast through the short term. This will allow hot and humid conditions to stick around, especially east of the mountains. Highs each afternoon will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices reaching into the mid 90s to lower 100s east of the mountains. Breezy SW'ly winds will develop each day which will bring some relief from the heat and humidity. Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the period.
Although sfc instability will range from 1,500-2,000 J/kg during peak heating each day, deep layer shear will only range from 15-20 kts limiting the severe storm potential. However, an isolated severe storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out each afternoon/evening.
Any storm that manages to become severe will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. PWATS ranging from 1.5 to 2 inches will keep the heavy rainfall/isolated flash flooding threat around with any convection that develops through the short term.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Linger through Early Friday Ahead of a Cold Front

2) Drier and Less Humid Conditions Return Briefly Friday into Saturday Behind a Cold Front

3) Storm Chances as well as the Heat and Humidity Return Sunday

Bermuda high pressure remains parked over the western Atlantic through the period. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach out of the northwest on Thursday before tracking across the forecast area Thursday night into early Friday morning. The cold front will push south of the area the rest of Friday into the weekend. Thursday will be another hot and humid day but breezy SW winds will return bringing some relief. Shower and thunderstorm chances will linger ahead of the front Thursday into early Friday morning before drier and less humid conditions return behind the front later Friday into Saturday. Diurnal convection, as well as the heat and humidity, looks to return by Sunday. PWAT values will remain elevated through early Friday so the heavy rainfall/isolated flash flooding threat will continue ahead of and along the front. The severe weather potential will remain low through the long term thanks to weak wind shear and despite good destabilization each afternoon.

AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly VFR conditions to start off the TAF period as lower stratus has lifted out of the area. Another day for isolated showers and TSRA but coverage is limited. Confidence is low for coverage outside of the KHKY/KCLT area, so will continue a TEMPO for those locations this afternoon and a PROB30 elsewhere. SCT/BKN clouds remain with some cu this afternoon, but should be in the VFR or high-end MVFR range through the evening and into the overnight hours. As with the past few days, expect IFR/LIFR with low stratus and BR/FG to develop at the mountain terminals KHKY/KAVL between 08z- 12z. Monday could see a few more showers and TSRA, so another round of PROB30 for the afternoon at most sites.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day thru early next week. Late night and early morning fog and low stratus restrictions possible each day.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.